cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/27231323
- Bananas make up one of the largest tropical fruit export chains, with 20 million metric tons of bananas exported annually; a whopping 100 billion bananas are eaten globally each year.
- According to a recent study, the area suitable for export banana production in Latin America and the Caribbean could be reduced by 60% due to climate change and other factors, such as population density and distance from ports.
- Research highlights that countries located in the Global South may find it more difficult to adapt to climate change than wealthier countries due to a lack of resources.
- Although the study focuses on large, intensive banana plantations, researchers say small farmers could also be affected by climate change; however, they may be more resilient to climate shocks because they often use a production system that values crop diversity.
archived (Wayback Machine):
The researchers conclude that among the climatic factors they analyzed, temperature would be the only factor responsible for the loss of suitable areas, as the increasing temperatures will be harmful to banana yields. “This is particularly the case in dry regions, or regions which will become dry. In addition, extreme events such as hurricanes and storms can damage production, for example the Caribbean,” Bebber says.
The analysis is based on a scenario in which there would be no labor migration, port expansion or irrigation in the future. Therefore, the climate crisis will likely cause the areas most suitable for banana production to become more distant from regions that currently have sufficient irrigation and population density to guarantee labor, as well as becoming more distant from ports, which are essential infrastructure for the export chain. According to Bebber, “to continue production in these new suitable areas, we’ll have to ensure we have sufficient irrigation (in some places), workers, and transport infrastructure.”
From the abstract of the study:
We found that intensive banana production is constrained to low-lying, warm aseasonal regions with slightly acidic soils, but is less constrained by precipitation, as irrigation facilitates production in drier regions. Production is limited to areas close to shipping ports and with high human population density.
Areas at reasonable elevations with sufficient year-round rainfall will remain suitable for non-commercial banana production for many years to come. Continue planting bananas in your food forest… just don’t rely on only one kind.