China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell by 1% in the second quarter of 2026, as oil consumption plummeted amid the strait of Hormuz crisis.
The country’s use of oil fell by 9% overall and by 16% for transport, after the disruptions to supply from the Gulf through the strait. This guest post is by:
Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air
China’s total CO2 emissions fell despite a continued rebound in coal-fired power generation.
This is the first time that reductions in oil consumption have been responsible for a fall in CO2 emissions overall – in all previous cases, coal consumption has been the main driver.
Genuinely surprising for me. Because coal has much greater CO2 emissions than oil for the same energy output, I thought that emissions would hit a new peak this year. It seems the higher efficiency of electrified transport and the lull in the construction sector offset a dirtier fossil energy mix overall. Of course, the renewables and nuclear buildout doubtlessly helped as well.
Well it is just 1% it hardly indicates a trend yet but I’m hoping it does actually indicate one. The biggest economy in the world managing to turn around their CO2 emissions trend for good would be huge.
While the 1% decline is not particularly impressive on its own, the real significance is that it happened in spite of a massive ramp up in coal use for power generation, which has higher emissions than either oil or natural gas. Of course, all fossil-based energy must be phased out in time, but it is a good sign that even a generational energy crisis isn’t derailing China’s decarbonisation efforts.
So weird how we keep having all these generational crises every 5 years or so…
The scale of Chinese renewable expansion over the last two years is unprecedented in human history, in just 2025 alone, the amount of renewable Chinese investment in the global south exceeded the Marshall Plan with some countries like Pakistan quietly switching 20% of their electricity production to renewables in less than two years, and that was before the latest war with Iran started
deleted by creator
