davel [he/him]

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  • 449 Posts
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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: July 8th, 2023

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  • I wouldn’t be surprised if some back channels between Iran and the USA agreed to these limited exchanges to save face and not go to war.

    I’ve heard from multiple sources that this is the case, and I haven’t heard any counterarguments.

    And I wouldn’t be surprised if Israel knew this and is exposing this as a way to push the USA to war.

    Doubtful. Assuming the satellite images are real (very likely), they would have gotten out anyway. These are commercial-grade resolution, akin to Google Maps.
















  • I didn’t say that only the US can engage in asymmetric warfare, nor did I say that Putin and Trump are not important actors. Who is strawmanning who?

    And what’s with “the nebulous ‘US’”? No one is confused about what the US is. And how is the Byzantine generals problem relevant, when secure, real-time, two-way communication is at their disposal?

    “Putin thrives on ambiguity, and Trump has served that strategy again and again, openly and with intent.”

    Your foundational thesis is so vague that it’s unfalsifiable, which is why I didn’t even try. Like I said, it’s just a vaguepost, ripe for annoying motte-and-bailey argumentation.