it seems that you are already trying to explain away exceptions rather than accepting that this myth lacks predictive power and may not, in fact, accurately explain any past elections at all.
Do you think anyone other than Biden or Trump will win? If you do, then your choice is clear, and as much as you question the existence of the spoiler effect (which is not being spread much by the media in the US, it’s being spread by detractors of the current voting system), it doesn’t really matter. People will vote towards those two candidates (hope we can agree that this is the likely outcome).
If that’s the case, voting for a third candidate is as good as not voting because if your candidate doesn’t win, and you COULD have voted for your next choice (why ranked voting is so much better, and it’s the voting system letting you down), then the candidate you most don’t want (assuming 3 candidates) has a better chance of winning (since you didn’t vote for your second choice).
You say this isn’t provable because it’s about people’s beliefs and it can’t be tested, but sorry, elections are about human choices, beliefs are at play. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that democracies with ranked choice voting have more first preference votes to smaller parties, and that it’s overwhelmingly so.
You can’t really escape the fact that even if people just voted for their favourite candidate in first past the post, people would win with less than 50% of the vote (unless you’re saying that the votes don’t add up to 100% then I dunno what to say)
you’re missing the crux of why it’s not provable: there is no test for it. it’s not that it’s “about beliefs” is that you can’t conduct an experiment to determine the validity
it seems that you are already trying to explain away exceptions rather than accepting that this myth lacks predictive power and may not, in fact, accurately explain any past elections at all.
Lets just focus on this particular election then.
Do you think anyone other than Biden or Trump will win? If you do, then your choice is clear, and as much as you question the existence of the spoiler effect (which is not being spread much by the media in the US, it’s being spread by detractors of the current voting system), it doesn’t really matter. People will vote towards those two candidates (hope we can agree that this is the likely outcome).
If that’s the case, voting for a third candidate is as good as not voting because if your candidate doesn’t win, and you COULD have voted for your next choice (why ranked voting is so much better, and it’s the voting system letting you down), then the candidate you most don’t want (assuming 3 candidates) has a better chance of winning (since you didn’t vote for your second choice).
You say this isn’t provable because it’s about people’s beliefs and it can’t be tested, but sorry, elections are about human choices, beliefs are at play. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that democracies with ranked choice voting have more first preference votes to smaller parties, and that it’s overwhelmingly so.
You can’t really escape the fact that even if people just voted for their favourite candidate in first past the post, people would win with less than 50% of the vote (unless you’re saying that the votes don’t add up to 100% then I dunno what to say)
you’re missing the crux of why it’s not provable: there is no test for it. it’s not that it’s “about beliefs” is that you can’t conduct an experiment to determine the validity