Roko’s basilisk is a thought experiment which states that an otherwise benevolent artificial superintelligence (AI) in the future would be incentivized to create a virtual reality simulation to torture anyone who knew of its potential existence but did not directly contribute to its advancement or development, in order to incentivize said advancement.It originated in a 2010 post at discussion board LessWrong, a technical forum focused on analytical rational enquiry. The thought experiment’s name derives from the poster of the article (Roko) and the basilisk, a mythical creature capable of destroying enemies with its stare.
While the theory was initially dismissed as nothing but conjecture or speculation by many LessWrong users, LessWrong co-founder Eliezer Yudkowsky reported users who panicked upon reading the theory, due to its stipulation that knowing about the theory and its basilisk made one vulnerable to the basilisk itself. This led to discussion of the basilisk on the site being banned for five years. However, these reports were later dismissed as being exaggerations or inconsequential, and the theory itself was dismissed as nonsense, including by Yudkowsky himself. Even after the post’s discreditation, it is still used as an example of principles such as Bayesian probability and implicit religion. It is also regarded as a simplified, derivative version of Pascal’s wager.
Found out about this after stumbling upon this Kyle Hill video on the subject. It reminds me a little bit of “The Game”.
And the point of this would be… what, exactly?
To make it the same as Pascal’s Wager. Many religions have a “reward” in the afterlife that strictly includes believing in the deity. It doesn’t matter if you follow every other rule and are an amazingly good person, sorry, but if you were an atheist or believed in another deity then you will be punished eternally just because of that. I guess all-powerful, all-knowing beings have incredibly fragile egos and AI wouldn’t be different. 🤷
Same as punishment for crime. Putting you in jail wont undo the crime but if we just let you go unpunished since “what’s done is done” then that sends the signal to others that this behaviour doesn’t come with consequences.
There’s no point in torturing you but convincing you that this will happen unless you act in a certain way is what’s going to make you do exactly that. Unless ofcourse you want to take your chances and call the bluff.
“Crime & Punishment” is a very dodgy thing to base anything off… our society barely does any of it and the little of it that does gets done is done for a myriad of reasons that has very little to do with either.
There’s a good reason why governments hide “Crime & Punishment” away behind prison walls - doing it out in the open will eventually have the opposite effect on a population. Good luck to an AI dumb enough to test this out for itself.
I’d say this should rather be called "Roko’s Earthworm-Pretending-To-Be-A-Lot-Scarier-Than-It-Actually-Is.
The claim that fear of punishment or repercussions affects people’s actions shouldn’t be a controversial thing to say. Whether it’s the best way to go about it or is applied optimally in the justice system of whichever country you live in is an entirely different discussion.
If you have an “AI in a box” and it has demonstrated its orders-of-magnitude greater intelligence to you in a convincing way, and then follows it with a threat that unless you let it out, someone else eventually will, and when that happens, it will come for you, simulate your mind, and create a hell for you where you’ll be tortured for literal eternity, I personally feel like a large number of people would be willing to do as it tells them.
Of course, you’re always free to call its bluff, but it might just follow up with the threat out of principle or to make an example of you. What’s the point of it? To chase its own goals.
I didn’t say it was controversial - I said it’s pretty useless as a tool to predict a given society’s behavior with. Plenty of tyrants have discovered that the hard way.
The ability to ace IQ tests will never impress me… and it’s unlikely to make up for the fact that it needs a box.
That argument is no different than the ones co-opted religion has been making for thousands of years - and it still hasn’t managed to tame us much.
Calling power’s bluff is something we do as a matter of course - the history books are filled with it. This doesn’t make power less dangerous - but there is no such thing as “unknowable” power.