I guess if you include the territory that was very briefly held when Russia was making a push into Kyev, that’s true, but the lines in the East have held pretty steady since the early days of the war.
Short of bringing US-style air superiority to play there, I can’t see that they’ll gain much in the near term.
I think the play needs to be a stalemate/slow advance until Putin dies. His successor will either accelerate or withdraw imo. Can’t bleed resources like that forever and remain in power, Putin is grandfathered in but the new guy won’t be. Unfortunately Putin could die tomorrow or in ten years. Hopefully it’s sooner than later.
Ukraine definitely has political stability and morale as good advantages. They’re also continually getting additional military support as time goes on.
Not sure there will be enough people left to fight…
True, Russia has run out of prisoners, Wagner is gone, Chechens are disengaging, Belarus is s clear “no”, and the rest of the population is unwilling and getting restless.
The Kremlin is too scared to even call it a war, let alone try widespread mobilization. They saw how Prigozhin waltz into Rostov-On-Don and act like a celebrity.
I meant Ukraine but yeah I think Russia also has personnel issues.
We constantly hear that Russia has personnel issues, but I have yet to see any actual evidence of that being the case. Seems like Russian army grew significantly over the past year with the call up of reservists and a whole bunch of volunteers signing up on contract. Russia has a far bigger population and could call up a huge number of people if they needed to.
Evidence what is embedded Russian “journalists” report, e.g. there is no rotation of troops at the frontline for example.
Out of curiosity, what exactly are you expecting to happen when Putin dies exactly? Do you realize that Putin is basically a moderate in Russia at this point. You think somebody like Kadyrov or Medvedev is going to have a more moderate policy?
50% since Russia’s gains early in the war, and most of it in late 2022 during the first counter-offensive.
They have NOT been making major gains during the current counter-offensive, unfortunately.
The hardest part of the counteroffensive is the first part, they’re pushing into the most heavily defended and fortified territory held by Russia. It will obviously be slow going, until eventually they break through and progress will happen more rapidly after that.
That was never going to happen. The lines have to strongly defended. But it is no assurance of defeat. It only increases the expense and time to recover. And once Ukrainians have some air force capabilities their combined arms offensive capabilities will be much greater.
I thought they’d been training on F-16s since last summer. Disappointing to see that moving so slowly
Give em F-16s, Blinken! They are designed to kill MiGs, and will provide much needed air support!
try engaging with reality https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/25/f-16-ukraine-milley-00098892
The article says Ukrainian troops are going to be trained to fly F-16s in August, so his take is more realistic than yours honestly
I love how people keep believing in these wunderwaffe. They can train them all they like, but these are obviously not going to make any significant difference.
There is absolutely no way in which a couple of airplanes will affect the war so drastically, furthermore it’s impossible for the US to provide Ukraine with enough of them since it takes so much to manufacture and they need to have a stockpile, meanwhile Russia could use airplanes that are older since Ukraine basically doesn’t have an air force and still get the upper hand.
🤔
F16’s won’t give Ukraine much of an advantage until sufficient numbers of pilots are a trained. There are two weapons that could immediately change the battlefield landscape. GLSDB’s and ATACM’s are long range precision bombs that would allow Ukraine to target Russian supply lines and ammunition stores far behind the front lines, including into Crimea. They both have backup inertial guidance systems in order to mitigate GPS jamming… which is a big problem for their current guided munitions.
supply lines and ammunition stores
And helis still on the pad. Much easier than trying to take them out with MANPADS teams or risking valuable AA systems near the front line.
The problem with F-16’s is that when they’re inevitably shot down, the videos will be all over the net and it will look awful from a spend perspective.
This is a perfect example of naked propaganda. Blinken distracts from the fact that the main offensive that’s been talked up for like half a year now failed to make any progress in over two months by talking about the gains Ukraine managed to make last year against territory Russia didn’t actually contest at the time.
The real question everybody should be asking is what happens once this offensive burns itself out. NATO basically sent all it could for this offensive, and turns out it was already known before the offensive started that this would not be enough https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-lack-of-weaponry-and-training-risks-stalemate-in-fight-with-russia-f51ecf9
New equipment has to be produced now, and given the woeful state of western industry it’s going to take months and years to do that. Here’s what the latest DoD statement had to say:
Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced a new security assistance package to support Ukraine’s battlefield needs and underscore unwavering U.S. support for Ukraine. This package, which includes critical air defense capabilities and munitions, will be provided as part of the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI).
This USAI package highlights the continued U.S. commitment to meeting Ukraine’s pressing requirements by committing critical near-term capabilities while also building the enduring capacity of Ukraine’s Armed Forces to defend its territory and deter Russian aggression over the mid and long term.
Unlike Presidential Drawdown authority, which DoD has continued to utilize to deliver equipment to Ukraine from DoD stocks at a historic pace, USAI is an authority under which the United States procures capabilities from industry or partners to then send to Ukraine. This announcement represents the beginning of a contracting process to provide additional priority capabilities to Ukraine.
NYT is now reporting that the Ukrainian army is becoming exhausted and it’s already suffering shortages https://web.archive.org/web/20230723093205/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/23/world/europe/weary-soldiersunreliable-munitions-ukraines-many-challenges.html
So, what exactly do people think is going to happen when the Russian army starts an offensive of their own against an exhausted and depleted Ukrainian army?
So, what exactly do people think is going to happen when the Russian army starts an offensive of their own against an exhausted and depleted Ukrainian army?
The same thing that happened during the last Russian offensive, absolutely nothing because the Russian army is even more exhausted and depleted than the Ukrainians, and we seem to be in a period of military history again where the defense is much stronger than the offense (at least in a scenario with no clear air superiority).
Does this include Crimea or just territory seized since 2022?
Probaby just since 2022.
