Lemmy.one
  • Communities
  • Create Post
  • heart
    Support Lemmy
  • search
    Search
  • Login
  • Sign Up
John Richard@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 9 months ago

Trump has taken the lead over Harris for first time in 538 forecast.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

external-link
message-square
26
fedilink
  • cross-posted to:
  • politics@lemmy.world
  • politics@beehaw.org
  • politics@lemmy.world
63
external-link

Trump has taken the lead over Harris for first time in 538 forecast.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

John Richard@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 9 months ago
message-square
26
fedilink
  • cross-posted to:
  • politics@lemmy.world
  • politics@beehaw.org
  • politics@lemmy.world
Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
external-link
538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.
alert-triangle
You must log in or # to comment.
  • SatansMaggotyCumFart@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    70
    ·
    9 months ago

    Still, a word of caution: You might be tempted to make a big deal about our forecast “flipping” to Trump, but it’s important to remember that a 52-in-100 chance for Trump is not all that different from a 58-in-100 chance for Harris — both are little better than a coin flip for the leading candidate. While Trump has undeniably gained some ground over the past couple weeks, a few good polls for Harris could easily put her back in the “lead” tomorrow. Our overall characterization of the race — that it’s a toss-up — remains unchanged.

    I think it’s funny posts like this get downvoted when it’s just polls and statistics.

    I hope it will get upvoted so more people see it and get inspired to vote!

    • John Richard@lemmy.worldOP
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      7
      ·
      9 months ago

      I’m under the impression most of the people down voting would still be claiming Joe Biden is 30 years old.

      • DarkDecay@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        21
        ·
        9 months ago

        Who cares what impression you’re under? tRumps the current candidate with dementia. He so old and weak the polls don’t matter

        • John Richard@lemmy.worldOP
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          2
          ·
          9 months ago

          Polls only matter when they appear to help but not hurt? Isn’t that just playing politics?

        • sorval_the_eeter@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          2
          ·
          edit-2
          9 months ago

          the polls don’t matter

          they should matter to Harris, who has the power to abandon some Biden baggage weighing her down. Like those pesky war enabling weapons shipments. But hey, if she wants to throw the election then theres nothing we voters can do to stop her. Just remember who had the chance and chose not take it, come nov 4. Its up to her now.

      • rbesfe@lemmy.ca
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        5
        ·
        9 months ago

        What does this race have to do with Joe Biden?

        • John Richard@lemmy.worldOP
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          2
          ·
          9 months ago

          What? You really have no clue that Kamala was coronated since Biden dropped out?

      • RampantParanoia2365@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        3
        ·
        9 months ago

        …what?

  • Wren@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    35
    ·
    9 months ago

    Didn’t 538 inaccurately call the past 2 elections? Either way- vote like polls don’t exist!

    • TheKingBombOmbKiller@lemm.ee
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      27
      ·
      9 months ago

      They don’t call elections. They tell you the odds.

      • Wren@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        3
        ·
        edit-2
        9 months ago

        Aaaaand… weren’t they wrong the past two elections?

        • BradleyUffner@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          25
          ·
          9 months ago

          Someone doesn’t understand probability.

          • Wren@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            3
            ·
            edit-2
            9 months ago

            Oh I understand it just fine. Fine enough not to rely on polling to indicate anything. 538 isn’t accurate. Why is that up for debate?

            Odds can’t be wrong?

            • TheKingBombOmbKiller@lemm.ee
              link
              fedilink
              arrow-up
              13
              ·
              9 months ago

              If I told you that you had a five in six chance to roll the dice and not roll a one, and then you rolled the dice and got a one, was what I told you wrong?

              • sorval_the_eeter@lemmy.world
                link
                fedilink
                arrow-up
                2
                ·
                edit-2
                8 months ago

                “wrong” is a subjective call dependent on the intelligence of the observer. To some other people the answer isnt ‘wrong’ or ‘right’ its ‘I love my pickup’ or ‘boobs!’ or ‘me no like polls, they say me losing’.

              • Wren@lemmy.world
                link
                fedilink
                arrow-up
                1
                ·
                edit-2
                9 months ago

                Their odds predicted the past two elections wrong. What part of this is not getting through?

                There wasn’t a five in six chance for the candidates during either of the previous two elections. So I’m ignoring your example.

                They were wrong. Twice. Enough said.

                • TheKingBombOmbKiller@lemm.ee
                  link
                  fedilink
                  arrow-up
                  7
                  ·
                  edit-2
                  9 months ago

                  Here is a direct quote from 538:

                  538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.

                  Source

                  In 2016 they gave Hillary Clinton a 71.4 % chance of winning, and in 2020 they gave Joe Biden 89 % chance of winning. They are dealing in odds, not calls.

                  And even if it isn’t getting through to you, how were they wrong in 2020?

    • abff08f4813c@j4vcdedmiokf56h3ho4t62mlku.srv.us
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      1
      ·
      8 months ago

      TBF, that would have been when Nate Silver was running the show. But he left and 538 is using a new, untested model now.

  • Octospider@lemm.ee
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    13
    ·
    9 months ago

    Get Ready Everyone

  • nifty@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    7
    ·
    9 months ago

    Well I am just lookin at these early vote ballot requests and I am hoping people just vote

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote

  • unconsciousvoidling@sh.itjust.works
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    7
    ·
    9 months ago

    It must of been all the swaying to Ave Maria that put him over the top. That or the jerking off of ghosts to ymca.

  • Media Bias Fact Checker@lemmy.worldB
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    5
    ·
    9 months ago
    FivethirtyEight - News Source Context (Click to view Full Report)

    Information for FivethirtyEight:

    MBFC: Left-Center - Credibility: High - Factual Reporting: High - United States of America
    Wikipedia about this source

    Search topics on Ground.News

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

    Media Bias Fact Check | bot support

politics @lemmy.world

politics@lemmy.world

Subscribe from Remote Instance

Create a post
You are not logged in. However you can subscribe from another Fediverse account, for example Lemmy or Mastodon. To do this, paste the following into the search field of your instance: !politics@lemmy.world

Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!

Rules:

  1. Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.

Links must be to the original source, not an aggregator like Google Amp, MSN, or Yahoo.

Example:

  1. Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
  2. Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
  3. No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive. Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to “Mom! He’s bugging me!” and “I’m not touching you!” Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.
  4. Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
  5. No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning

We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.

All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.

That’s all the rules!

Civic Links

• Register To Vote

• Citizenship Resource Center

• Congressional Awards Program

• Federal Government Agencies

• Library of Congress Legislative Resources

• The White House

• U.S. House of Representatives

• U.S. Senate

Partnered Communities:

• News

• World News

• Business News

• Political Discussion

• Ask Politics

• Military News

• Global Politics

• Moderate Politics

• Progressive Politics

• UK Politics

• Canadian Politics

• Australian Politics

• New Zealand Politics

Visibility: Public
globe

This community can be federated to other instances and be posted/commented in by their users.

  • 22 users / day
  • 41 users / week
  • 81 users / month
  • 23.1K users / 6 months
  • 119 local subscribers
  • 24.5K subscribers
  • 22K Posts
  • 577K Comments
  • Modlog
  • mods:
  • outrageousmatter@lemmy.world
  • aidan@lemmy.world
  • jordanlund@lemmy.world
  • 🌱 🐄🌱 @lemmy.world
  • Theonetheycall1845@lemmy.world
  • JuBe@lemmy.world
  • Lasherz@lemmy.world
  • BE: 0.19.7
  • Modlog
  • Legal
  • Instances
  • Docs
  • Code
  • join-lemmy.org