- cross-posted to:
- war@group.lt
- ukraine@sopuli.xyz
- cross-posted to:
- war@group.lt
- ukraine@sopuli.xyz
The Russian commander of the “Vostok” Battalion fighting in southern Ukraine said on Thursday that Ukraine will not be defeated and suggested that Russia freeze the war along current frontlines.
Alexander Khodakovsky made the candid concession yesterday on his Telegram channel after Russian forces, including his own troops, were devastatingly defeated by Ukrainian marines earlier this week at Urozhaine in the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk regional border area.
“Can we bring down Ukraine militarily? Now and in the near future, no,” Khodakovsky, a former official of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic, said yesterday.
“When I talk to myself about our destiny in this war, I mean that we will not crawl forward, like the [Ukrainians], turning everything into [destroyed] Bakhmuts in our path. And, I do not foresee the easy occupation of cities,” he said.
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Russia is not interested in conquering Ukraine. They’re interested in goals like keeping Ukraine out of NATO, maintaining access to the Black Sea, and not having ethnic Russians who don’t wish to be a part of Ukraine killed on their borders.
What would you call the annexed regions if not conquered? “Liberated”? Get a grip
I would call them annexed. The people in them do not want to remain part of Ukraine, they’re fine with being part of Russia, and that’s the touchstone here.
Russia is not interested in conquering the whole of Ukraine, because most of the people in the western part do want to remain Ukrainian, not Russian.
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I think a firm majority of people in the annexed regions want to leave Ukraine and are at least fine with joining Russia.
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My understanding is that while Russia annexed Kherson, they did not annex Kharkhiv.
I’m very confident the parts of Ukraine that have been trying to leave since 2014 mostly want to leave. I know ethnic Russians and Russian speakers are most heavily concentrated in the east, not just in the pre-war separatist regions but surrounding them, too. I’m sure war breaking out caused a lot of people who were on the fence to pick a side, and I can imagine someone who speaks Russian at home but wasn’t radical enough to be part of a pre-war separatist movement throwing in with the much stronger country, that speaks their language, that doesn’t have troops running around with neo-Nazi patches and flags.
What I’ve seen is breakdowns of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers, which are predominantly in the east. I’ve also seen pre-war election results that show these eastern regions disagree with western Ukraine on national politics.
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The reality is that Ukraine lost its sovereignty when the legitimate and democratically elected government was overthrown in a coup. That’s when the war started between the regime in western Ukraine backed by the west and the east. Western media actually reported on this as well
I agree that at this point Ukraine is basically fucked. There was a possibility to make a deal back in March last year, but US and UK decided to sabotage it. Now, Russia will likely go all the way and there’s not going to be an Ukraine left when this war ends.
Ahh, the rare sane hexbear user I still have hopes for you lot you’re definitely not as bad as lemmygrad.
However, let me add something:
You leave out the scenario of Russians getting kicked out of the country. Which is going to lead to Putin being sent to his Dacha, and if not and he somehow clings on Ukraine having all its territory opens NATO membership which means that the Russian general staff is going to shit bricks and rather putsch than attack.
He a) wouldn’t do that and b) since when is Ukraine antisemitic you’re confusing it with… pretty much all other countries in that area and c) you don’t need to invoke far-right fucks (who are a tiny minority btw) the rest of the country would, well, send him to a Dacha.
And ever if: At that point we’d be in the situation many predicted in the first days of the invasion: Fall of the government, but Ukrainians then fighting a partisan war. And Ukraine right now is just in way too good a position to switch to that.
All in all, the way forward to quick peace is clear: Help Ukraine win this thing. It’s both the best option from a direct humanitarian POV by cutting the war short, as well as the best option for wider humanity and the future: Not allowing states intending to conquer to get away with such behaviour. Discouraging wars of aggression is important by itself and one of the reasons why Ukrainians fight so hard, they see the universalism in their own national struggle it just all aligns so well.
“If we make sure every last Ukrainian dies, they will finally have peace”
Ahh, reading comprehension, in some places truly a luxury.
you are welcome. Since you are asking for more people to die than less people to die, and you say it’s for peace. I’ve decided simplifying your long ass post for everyone.
I’m asking for less people to die:
Because, you see, less people tend to die in a short war than in a long war.
Hence why I’m questioning your reading comprehension.
A short war with more intensive fighting. That’s just throwing more people into the meat grinder.
Long-range systems can, *drumroll*, disable things from a distance. Right now Ukraine needs to get quite up and close and personal to overcome those lines. One of them incurs more casualties.
“To stop the meatgrinder we must meatgrind more people”
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Ukraine send like two and a half Leos out to see if a frontal assault would work, and it didn’t, so they didn’t do it again. The vast majority of western systems are still intact and in any case: If things like MBTs and APVs don’t get destroyed you’re not using them. Things get shot at in wars and it’s no secret that a direct artillery hit will kill any tank.
Meanwhile, though, Ukraine is inflicting heavy attrition on Russian artillery, as well as choppers. Don’t let the lines on maps confuse you there’s a lot happening that isn’t visible there.
That would mean that all those people who joined since 2014, 2022 are far-right? Which would mean that the whole of Ukraine is far-right. Which makes no sense when you look at the election results with Svoboda having one seat in the Rada.
Ukraine built its army from 2014, recruiting ordinary people, training them according to NATO doctrine (giving status and independence to NCOs, mission command, such stuff), with NATO help, we sent like a gazillion of instructors. Many many Nazis left Azov after they were integrated into the National Guard, and the whole thing was actively depoliticised.
Are there still Nazis in Azov? Almost certainly. But the days of them dominating and openly running around with SS runes on their helmets are definitely over. Just as a side note btw Azov is and always was Russian-speaking, Ukrainian nationalism gets complicated.
No. Ukrainian generals have been very clear about this from the beginning: The offensive is going to drag on for a very long time due to the lack of materiel to do anything big. Conditions have improved somewhat with Stormshadow and Taurus is bound to come soon but Ukraine has no weapons with which it could just obliterate Russian artillery en masse which would then allow them to bring in slow and vulnerable materiel to clear minefields etc. to enable them to break through the line with heavy armour. They, as already said, have to slowly grind down Russian artillery where they can.
The other way would be actual air superiority. Dunno if those F16s will suffice to switch to full NATO strategy but it’s certainly going to give the Russian side quite some trouble.
Speaking of NATO strategy that’s probably the reason this impression exists: Yeah if Ukraine had a fully equipped NATO army they’d disable the whole Russian rear from the air, then parachute in armour to attack the Russian lines from the rear and the whole thing would be over in no time. The kind of not war but beating you saw on TV so many times. Like Operation Desert Storm. But Ukraine doesn’t have a fully equipped NATO army, it’s a Soviet-style army half-way switching to NATO doctrine drip-fed some NATO surplus.
Oh another tidbit: Russia mobilised all its reserves to the front, quite some while ago. Ukraine didn’t they’re rotating troops in and out. Which is why you see renewed conscription drives in Russia, which then poses the question on what kind of equipment they’re supposed to be equipped with, not to speak of the additional instability doing that causes.