How do these Natalists feel about the African continent?
Antinatalism what what - don’t make fresh when plenty actual living kids need rescuing.
Adopt, don’t
shopbreed!I watched a video recently on how South Korea is pretty fucked because of their declining birth rate. 2.1 is fine by me.
There is nothing bad about going back to a sustainable population level. The cost for raising a child is greater than the cost for taking care of elderly. When elderly die that frees up resources for the next generation making it even easier.
The problem with declining population is the huge bubble pop you get when the population is mostly elderly people and few workers.
Right, but this can be resolved with immigration.
Maybe in the west. Not in places like South Korea or Japan. Even if you got the populations to buy in to immigration 100%, you’ve got an impossible task convincing immigrants to learn the language.
English’s hegemony over the world makes immigration to non-English-speaking areas a huge problem. Quebec, for example, tries mightily to force immigrants to learn French and the results are quite ugly in Quebec politics.
I mean you’re presupposing that it’s important to convince immigrants to learn the language. Maybe multiculturualism is okay actually
Learning the local language is a survival skill. It doesn’t require forgetting your first language nor does it mean the end of your culture.
The issue is that groups of immigrants can form enclaves where they speak their own language but not the local language. This has the effect of making them “second class” and limiting both their economic opportunities and their overall contribution to society.
you’ve got an impossible task convincing immigrants to learn the language.
Do we? The languages aren’t that hard, people learn languages all the time especially if they move.
Just make it a requirement for citizenship, offer classes, etc. I’m picking up 2 languages right now, 1 for work and 1 for my new home in Europe. The human brain does things.
Quebec, for example, tries mightily to force immigrants to learn French and the results are quite ugly in Quebec politics.
Ok, so I actually speak some french (from school), and that’s not about it not being English, it’s just that French is a shit language to push for no reason.
Tell Quebec to switch to Spanish, everyone will be happier.
If you already know French, can you get an “in” immigration wise?
Yeah but no more of an “in” than knowing English. Immigration policy is controlled by the federal government which only cares if you know one of the two official languages of the country (or not).
Korea used to have 2 workers and 10 dependents. Now its 2 workers and 7 dependents. There are literally more workers per dependent. There’s no bubble that will pop.
Where are your statistics? Do any cursory searching and you’ll find that South Korea is desperate for care workers. There’s a huge shortage.
The 6 kids on average for South Korea in the 1950’s was from the Kurzgesagt video originally posted.
2 parents caring for 6 kids and 4 grandparents equals 10 dependents.
2 parents caring for 4 grandparents and 1 kid equals 5 dependents.
And then finally 1 kid caring for 2 parents and 4 grandparents. 1 worker and 6 dependents.
True, but the lack of productive workers and the thinned tax base will crash the country while it all balances out. Only way to make a smooth transition is to slaughter the elderly, which is largely what will happen, just not on purpose.
If 10 dependents per 2 workers (6 kids, 4 elderly) didn’t crash the country in 1950, then having more workers per dependent in 2040 won’t either.
The only people who suffer from a population decline are the idle wealthy because their income comes from skimming profit from the workers.
You keep bringing up the same point but do you plan on just letting seniors rot? We literally don’t have the workers to care for the elderly AND run society. Demographic collapse is a real issue
Seniors had care when there were less resources because families had 6 kids to raise. I showed that because children take up more resources than elderly that they not only wouldn’t rot, but would have more care because the resources that went to children would go to them.
We literally don’t have the workers to care for the elderly AND run society.
Yet we can have the resources to raise kids that cost even more? That makes no sense.
children take up more resources than elderly
I can’t begin to tackle that one. Jesus. You’ve certainly never had kids nor been old, I get that much.
Seniors had care when there were less resources because families had 6 kids to raise.
Historically, this was made possible by unpaid care labor performed primarily by women and children.
The cost for raising a child is greater than the cost for taking care of elderly
Holy [citation needed], Batman!
Cost to raise 1 child is $350k including college.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-much-does-it-cost-to-raise-a-child-240000/
https://educationdata.org/average-cost-of-college
Average nursing home cost is $120k/yr and people live on average 2 years in a nursing home.
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2945440/2 parents working
6 kids = $2.1m 4 grandparents = $960k
So you’re comparing the cost of 18 years’ worth of child-rearing (or 22 years’ worth including college) to an up-to-$120k per year cost of supporting an elderly person, and aren’t even bothering to consider anything but the last two years?
In what fantasy world is $15,900/year ($350k/22 years) somehow more than the annual cost of living for a senior citizen—even a healthy and independent one‽
Until a senior citizen needs to have nursing home care, they are independent. In-home care is far cheaper. They don’t need the costs of 6 hours a day of schooling which cost $15k per child in taxes to pay for the teachers and infrastructure. (That $15k/year isn’t part of the $350k cost quoted earlier because it’s covered by taxes.)
https://educationdata.org/public-education-spending-statistics
You aren’t making 3 meals a day for them because they do it themselves. You aren’t paying for day care- until it’s nursing home or in home care time. In many cases the elderly are providing the day care for children.
You aren’t making 3 meals a day for them because they do it themselves.
They still have to pay for it, though! Don’t even try to tell me that an elderly person’s regular living expenses — food, housing, utilities, etc. — averages out to less than $15,900/year.
Are you just forgetting those exist? Are you trying to compare the total costs of raising a child, including all living expenses, to only the extra age-related costs of caring for an elderly person, not including living expenses? 'Cause it sure seems like that’s what you’re doing.
In many cases the elderly are providing the day care for children.
And if it’s a multigenerational household where that’s feasible on a daily basis because they live there, then they could even save on housing expenses too (maybe even brining down their living expenses to nearly equal to that of a child in the same household).
But we’re talking averages, and that’s not the average — neither living together, nor providing regular day care. On average in the US, elderly people live separately from their grandkids and only see them occasionally.
The mean age of decedents was 83.3
That mean they on average, were put into the nursing house at 81yo. Do you think people retire at 80yo or what?
Until then they require less resources than a child. They don’t need $15k a year in public resources for schooling.
The video ignores the other side of the economic cost: the number of workers needed to support raising a child.
It costs more to raise a child than to care for elderly. Without child care costs there is a surplus to care for elderly.
Claiming South Korea is doomed because right now population growth is .8x is as ridiculous as those claiming South Korea was doomed in 1950 because at 6x population growth, everyone would starve in 50 years. Populations grow and contract to match their environment.
When the population has decreased to sustainable levels, individuals will have the free resources to raise children again.
Sounds like a job for immigration.
Ideally, sure. SK would have to change a lot for that to work, and that does not happen in a hurry. As far as the US is concerned, :gestures_widely:
Natalism (also called pronatalism or the pro-birth position) is a policy paradigm or personal value that promotes the reproduction of human life as an important objective of humanity and therefore advocates a high birthrate.
The thing that colors babies is melanin
Also blood/haemoglobin!
The 14 Words: The New Generation.
The old people here are going to have a fun little surprise when they realise the kids they didn’t have aren’t able to pay for their pension 😁
That’s not how a proper pension is structured, and given we’ve hard far more dependents per worker in modern history than is possible with a declining birth rate it’ll be economically fine.
Old people cost less than kids.
I’m putting what money I save by not having kids into my retirement fund. Compound interest ftw. I’ll hopefully be able to pay someone else’s kid to take care of me if/when need be.
Bonus: I don’t have to worry about navigating a child through the current American political environment. I’m worried enough about my elderly dog and normal-aged partner.
I’m also saving that money by having kids. But I’m also trying to spend my life facing hard things and enduring difficulty. Then when I no longer have the faculties to care for myself, I’ll walk into the wilderness and become one with the landscape again. Seems more stylish than getting my ass wiped by someone else for years.
My aunt is in her 70s and still traveling the world, very active. She’s visiting Japan last I checked. She and her husband are signed up to move into assisted living in a few years, which seems a gentle way to start slowing down.
I hope I take after her and not grandma-on-the-other-side: surprise dementia in her, iirc, 60s. Didn’t seem to bother her. Bothered the fuck out of everyone around her.
You don’t understand, we have literally voted to lower the pensions right now. The oldies striked. Nobody cared. You can’t strike to get a pension dummy, we’re forcing you to keep working. Young people aren’t striking.
I’ll pay for my dad’s needs. Not for the ones that didn’t have kids.
That’s because I do not give a fuck about the people that caused the aging population.
My kid needs my tax money instead.
Yeah you really don’t want a large population of people with nothing to lose start realizing they’ve nothing to lose. Striking, in the modern world, doesn’t exist. Picket lines and stopping work isn’t striking. Blowing up police stations and openly killing government and corporate employees is striking.
All populations eventually get to that point if mistreated.
Revolutions are done by young people. If the large part of society with nothing to lose are the oldies, then they’ll just… Die
Being able to kill 100 oldies is like bragging that you can kill toddlers.
In Indonesia there’s barely any pension. But they don’t have an aging population. The kids take care of their parents. Let’s go back to that. It seems to force people to make better decisions.
Barely any pension, but that’s fine because they have kids to take care of them. This sounds nice, except for when you think of it for more than a few seconds. How would a homosexual couple survive while they’re old? They can’t have kids. They can adopt, but that does nothing to enlarge the population. What about people that can’t conceive for medical reasons? Should they have to suffer with “barely any pension” just because they got unlucky? This might be fine for most, but policies like that come at the expense of minority groups, which are already often at a disadvantage. And if you suggest adoption… If having kids is the only way to have a decent life after retiring, adopting would be an easy choice, because it saves you the pregnancy hassle as well as maybe some stressful first years of childcare. Surely the demand for adoptions would skyrocket, making it close to impossible for every person in a group that can’t have children to actually get them. Also, since kids ate so valuable, supply for adoptions would fall, because who in their right mind would give up their pension that easily!
And let’s say a couple can and does have children because of the policy. In your mind they might have been ‘forced to make a better decision’, but ultimately ended up with the right choice, right? Have you considered that having kids might not be a healthy choice for a couple? Maybe the parents are just not cut out for the stress and suffer greatly while their kids grow up. Maybe the kids suffer as well, because a parent that is forced to have kids would hardly be a loving and enthusiastic parent, would they? You’d have to admit that forcing people into a choice is not exactly a good recipe for ensuring that they are happy, right?
Moving the financial burden of taking care of the elderly to an individual level works fine for some people, like your granddad enjoying your financial support, but greatly hurts people in different circumstances that they have no fault to be in. We should support everyone, not just a few lucky ones.
I’m opting out of supporting people that did no effort in their lives.
If you’ve been able and chose not to make an effort, then suffer the consequence financially.
Exemptions will always be made for the unable.
Adoption having no supply and a high demand is a good thing for the kids needing to be adopted.
A general pension for everyone sounds great, until you think about it for a few seconds. People stop having kids.
It’s wild to me that you’re equating having children with doing effort in your life. These people were supporting you in your choices too! They were paying taxes, maybe they were open to babysitting because they had no children of their own, maybe they financially helped parents within their family that were struggling. You’re kind of suggesting a two-class society, where childless people are off to fend for themselves with minimal support, regardless of what good they might have done in their lives. It’s like sending firefighters only to houses of other (ex-)firefighters, and letting all other houses burn because they ‘put in no effort’ themselves.
High adoption demand is good for the kids, but not for people relying on kids for their survival at an older age!
Exemptions will always be made for the unable.
Ruminate on that for a second. Think about how a government would determine if you’re unable. If you’re gay, does the government need to see you having sex with a man to be sure? What if a person has e.g. endometriosis and getting pregnant is far more unlikely but not impossible. Were they unable? Or just not trying enough? And what if a person wasn’t even diagnosed but just thought they were unlucky? We’d need a ridiculously thorough health check for every pensioner just to determine one factor in their eligibility.
Block the troll ^ and don’t engage
Why? Because it’s an uncomfortable truth?
What’s your argument on why that’s false?
