That Carl Shulman post from 2007 is hilarious.

After years spent studying existential risks, I concluded that the risk of an artificial intelligence with inadequately specified goals dominates. Attempts to create artificial intelligence can be expected to continue, and to become more likely to succeed in light of increased computing power, neuroscience, and intelligence-enhancements. Unless the programmers solve extremely difficult problems in both philosophy and computer science, such an intelligence might eliminate all utility within our future light-cone in the process of pursuing a poorly defined objective.

Accordingly, I invest my efforts into learning more about the relevant technologies and considerations, increasing my earnings capability (so as to deliver most of a large income to relevant expenditures), and developing logistical strategies to more effectively gather and expend resources on the problem of creating AI that promotes (astronomically) and preserves global welfare rather than extinguishing it.

Because the potential stakes are many orders of magnitude greater than relatively good conventional expenditures (vaccine and Green Revolution research), and the probability of disaster much more likely than for, e.g. asteroid impacts, utilitarians with even a very low initial estimate of the practicality of AI in coming decades should still invest significant energy in learning more about the risks and opportunities associated with it. (Having done so, I offer my assurance that this is worthwhile.) Note that for materialists the possibility of AI follows from the existence proof of the human brain, and that an AI able to redesign itself for greater intelligence and copy itself would have the power to determine the future of Earth-derived life.

I suggest beginning with the two articles below on existential risk, the first on relevant cognitive biases, and the second discussing the relation of AI to existential risk. Processing these arguments should provide sufficient reason for further study.

The “two articles below” are by Yudkowsky.

User “gaverick” replies,

Carl, I’m inclined to agree with you, but can you recommend a rigorous discussion of the existential risks posed by Unfriendly AI? I had read Yudkowsky’s chapter on AI risks for Bostrom’s bk (and some of his other SIAI essays & SL4 posts) but when I forward them to others, their informality fails to impress.

Shulman’s response begins,

Have you read through Bostrom’s work on the subject? Kurzweil has relevant info for computing power and brain imaging.

Ray mothersodding Kurzweil!