Anton Gerashchenko on Bluesky story about a strike at a nuclear plant with documentation:
https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3m56ndvbujs2i
The post contains video from the situation.
As I’ve been posting many times before, many workers in Russia are behind on payments. People working in factories being 3 months behind is not uncommon.
Anna from Ukraine explains the situation here. She is a good source IMO, because her English is excellent, and being Ukrainian she understands Russian, and makes frequent news updates about the Ukrainian war from various perspectives.
Anna Danylchuk:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6EQ0ubmsIk
Inside Russia on youtube was first to report on the Russian population beginning to have had enough to a degree they are actually beginning to complain:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoR5_bJywWQ
I’ve claimed before I don’t think Putin will last through the winter, and I see this as the first signs that the Russian people is about to have had enough.
The story reported by Anna and Gerashchenko tells that the workers are at least 2 months behind on wages, they were promised transportation to work, something that is important because of the lack of fuel, and public transport becoming unreliable. But they do not get the promised transportation. They were also promised 1 hot meal per day, but do not receive that either.
Finally in their homes, they are out of water and heat.
This is the economic and infrastructure collapse many have predicted was inevitable, that is now beginning to really show. And it isn’t even really winter yet!
PS: The moderators removed my previous post with false accusations, so here it is posted again according to their demands.
I’m a bit sceptical of Russia falling in the short to medium term based on Money & Macro video https://youtu.be/YRuYb3H3mvA
His thesis boils down to economic collapse is generally caused by one or more of:
Capital flight is already prevented by capital controls Elvira Nabiullina set.
Blockade is hard to do without China cooperating.
Debt fueled bubble is unlikely since household and government debt is relatively low compared to other western countries.
Which leaves popular discontent. Putin is still pretty popular in Russia despite everything which means he can still use his popularity as a resource to go further down the war economy path. Since Russia has only used 1 out of 4 main tools to stabilise a war economy.
We should be looking out for wage controls, price controls and shutting down of industries, all levers that can be pulled that really affect people’s lives. Work for shit wages and buy limited selection of goods and the local cinema was shut down so people can work in an artillery shell factory.
In his opinion the Russian economy still can increase military spending by a large amount without collapse but not without taking it closer to collapse due to popular discontent.
If Ukraine can keep the oil production in Russia low I think it could really speed run the entire process. However, Putin is a tricky bitch so I wouldn’t count him out. If he can get the oil production back up and running by mobilising workers and build for redundancy the war could still go on for years.
Oil production is lowest in 4 years it’s down to half now, and so are the prices. Meaning that Russia only has a fourth the revenue that they had 4 years ago.
Exactly, the gap in foreign currency inflow/outflow is not going to be easy to fill with oil production this low. It very well may be that all it takes is a bunch of tomahawks aimed at oil refineries to cripple the Russian economy to a breaking point.