Russia has no more serious cards to back up their bluffs with, this is it, they played them all last summer and fall and gave themselves essentially no space to regroup during winter, come spring if they refuse to stop fighting Ukraine will smash their frontlines to pieces.
Spring will come like a tidal wave for russia.
This report is from when the russian offensive began to stall at a general level and Ukraine’s Battlefield Air Interdiction had reached a state of momentum.
I stand by what I said, the evidence is clear to me if russia continues to commit everything to gaining territory solidly without pause all the way through winter the coming of spring will leave russia extremely vulnerable.
For this reason I believe russia will push as hard as they can before spring to pause fighting under a peace plan that heavily advantages russia and sets the conditions for continued war after a brief pause where russia can stabilize.
If they fail to do so, they are screwed.
I hope very much you are right!