As of March 2026, the Royal Canadian Air Force’s (RCAF) path to modernization has encountered a significant strategic hurdle. While the first batch of F-35 Lightning II fighters is currently in production, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government is re-evaluating the scale of the 88-jet procurement.

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  • While 16 F-35 fighters remain contractually committed for delivery starting this year, the full 88-jet procurement is stalled amidst trade friction with the Trump administration.

  • Rising program costs—now estimated at $30 billion—have reopened the door for Saab’s JAS 39 Gripen E.

  • The Gripen offers superior industrial benefits, including 12,600 domestic jobs and Arctic-optimized maintenance.

  • Ottawa must now balance the F-35’s unmatched NORAD interoperability against the Gripen’s economic sovereignty as the aging CF-18 Hornet fleet reaches its structur

    • CanadaPlus@futurology.todayEnglish
      4·
      1 day ago

      No, the Iranians haven’t discovered a kind of radio wave that the rest of us just missed. The “almost” in almost invisible means something, and there’s a variety of situations that can dramatically increase the radar signature, or that can make radar not the important consideration at all.

      • anachronist@midwest.socialEnglish
        3·
        18 hours ago

        Modern “stealth” aircraft like the F35 uses split-ring resonator patterns in the skin of the aircraft. This is much more durable than the iron spheres suspended in a top coat that the F-22 and older aircraft use. (There’s a reason why the F-22 can’t be left out in the rain). The problem is that the resonator pattern is highly dependent on radar frequency. So yeah, the Iranians may very well have found radar frequencies that aren’t absorbed very well by the F-35.

        • CanadaPlus@futurology.todayEnglish
          1·
          16 hours ago

          The details are classified, but just a look at the visible design and common sense about if the engineers were dumb will tell you they didn’t only pay attention to a few frequencies. The coating isn’t only (a variety of) split-ring resonators either, it sounds like there is a chemical component of some kind.

          From what I’ve heard, any frequencies where they’re weak will be very low ones, which both require bigger, more obvious equipment and are less precise. And even then it might be a matter of a basketball-sized signature rather than a golf ball-sized one, and will be somewhat directional.

            • CanadaPlus@futurology.todayEnglish
              2·
              7 hours ago

              Sure, but the rest of the sky (AKA outer space) is non-reflective, so how do you get your negative return back?

              This falls in the “why don’t you just” category of talking about fields you don’t understand. Sure, there’s an actual good idea you’re moving towards, but it’s kind of clear you don’t know what you don’t know.

              After all, Boeing keeps having their planes drop out of the sky.

              It’s not a Boeing.

    • matlag@sh.itjust.works
      3·
      1 day ago

      Iranians have used conventional optical tech. The promise of the F35 is to be detected late by conventional long range radar. They were never supposed to be invisible or quiet.

      Granted that makes the stealth advantage very limited in terms of usage: coming from far away undetected. Then be very visible.

      Besides yes, China claims they can detect them with their satellites network and a France military equipment maker is apparently developing a radar that detects stealth jets. So that advantage is apparently not going to last.