I agree on the big points but think capitalism is more subtle than that.

Capitalism does cost efficiency incredibly well. It doesn’t do robustness, because redundancy costs money. So blocking one strait can stop the world.

At some point, neoliberalism stops being the best lens for understanding the world. This is a great case in point. Capitalism is not cost-efficient; the economy wastes about two or three hours of labor for every productive labor-hour, and that shows up in pricing. Any long-lived economy builds up redundancy; what capitalists believe is that redundancy cheapens everything by creating competition, and regardless of whether that’s true, it certainly doesn’t indicate inefficiency. The actual reason that blocking Hormuz has global effects is because we have been overextending our fertilization capabilities for over a century and many parts of the world can no longer sustain their own local nitrogen cycles.

On the subject of AI and the war in Iran, it feels pretty likely to me that the DoD will explode Anthropic with criminal/legal charges in August like they threatened to (unless Dario steps down), which will definitely be ugly

‘sufficiently experienced as a weasel’