cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ml/post/45499964
Recently, Donald Trump has been saying that they are going to stop attacks on Iran very soon saying that Tehran has the “Will” for ceasefire. But does USA really plan to leave Iran? Iran on the other hand has been saying that USA is negotiating with itself.
Do you really think USA will leave Iran? Not at all, because if they do it now, mark my words, ‘Iran will make Nuclear Weapons within a year’. This invasion has given them them not just the political will but also the resources required to do so, as we are seeing a new alliance nexus in building i.e North Korea, Iran, China and Russia. Iran now has a justifiable reason to make Nuclear bombs and legitimise them.
And this is exactly why USA cannot leave now. They cannot afford a nuclear powered Iran and hence this ceasefire tactics seems no more than a method to buy some time for ground invasion.
The toughest part for USA will be ‘Iranian Terrain and its blessed Geography’. This is exactly why US’s Operation Eagle Claw failed. I may hate US for its lack of morality at times, but what I absolutely admire about it is its ability to learn from its mistakes. Its hard to believe that after that failed operation USA would have sat idly. They must have learned about Iranian Geography and what systems will be most suitable against them, and if that is so, this will be a major problem for Iran if USA plans ground invasion. USA’s all time friend Israel too has declared that they will not deploy troops in Iran in case of any ground invasion, which I had anticipated because Israel’s priorities are set. They want Lebanon, and once USA is engaged in Iran, Israel will let its army loose on Lebanon, hence taking a big chunk of Lebanon and destroying Hezbollah.
If USA really goes foots on the ground in Iran, no matter how harsh it sounds, but in current world order, no country stands near USA in raw power, USA will eventually emerge victorious and if that happens, Russia can simply annex Ukraine as it will then have a legitimate reason. Can be called a silent deal between two. If the war is too prolonged, China can eventually seize the opportunity and invade Taiwan, which might not get US support as it would be engaged in Iran and at the same time. That would be the perfect time for India as well to take all of Kashmir from Pakistan and China, India can easily overpower Pakistan and China will never engage on a two front war, it will obviously choose Taiwan over Aksai Chin as Taiwan is the means for CPC to legitimise itself. We can say, it will be like a silent deal between major powers, ofcourse only if USA does a ground invasion.
What do you think? Let me know. Join “BharatDefense”, we discuss this in even more detail there.
Jai Hind
You didn’t get what I meant, lemme explain. See the world map and you will notice, in the east, Japan and South Korea have presence of US military, In the West (around central west more accurately), Turkey is a part of the NATO alliance and so is Poland in the West of Ukraine which also borders it. Now imagine how a country would feel being sorrounded by its worst enemy from all the sides, this would have had definitely become the case if Ukraine joined NATO if its biggest enemy, it is totally unacceptable and this is the exact reason of Russian aggression towards Ukraine. The thing is, Russia is deliberately not trying to end or win this war. If Russia captures all of Ukraine, then Poland and Romania will become its immediate neighbours who are already a part of the NATO. The problem would still remain the same. If Russia stops the war then Ukraine will immediately join NATO which it is not able to do now as NATO does not makes countries already engaged in war a part of it. The goal is to keep NATO away from immediate Russian neigborhood.
The best thing Russia can do is prolong the war to the extent which Ukraine cannot afford it, establish a puppet goverenment and leave, Ukraine in such a case would work as a wall between Russia and NATO.
There was a time when Russia considered joining NATO.
If Ukraine wanted to ally with another country, that’s their right. If Russia treated them better they’d choose Russia over the EU. Just like countries are choosing China over the US.
If you think Russia invading Ukraine is fine because it is in Russia’s economic interests then you must also believe the US blockading Cuba and attacking Venezuela is also fine.