MrPiss [he/him]

China will be in alpha centauri before the US lands on the moon again.

Porkistas

Amazing name. I still can’t believe he goes by porky.

national Conservative

National Conservative

Nat C

Nazi

I remembered this from some libbed up posts on reddit or something.

I think the chance they reopen negotiations before the ceasefire ends are low. Trump and most everyone else in the regime don’t really have long term plans and so they are probably going to stick with the blockade and whatever else they come up with for a few more weeks.

Art of the Deal. Just negotiate deadlines with yourself until the end of time.

China is the only real industrial power left. We don’t need any fancy terms like electrostate which means nothing since they’re trying to relate to petrostates but it isn’t really analogous. China is just committed to modernization and electrification of industry. Also, you might eventually here about the “electroyuan” which is equally stupid since the yuan’s international value will not be coming from renewable energy but from china’s general industrial capacity.

Just a short extension of our limited war on Iran with some limited strikes and limited damage to oil markets. But yeah I don’t think Trump or the military actually know what they’re doing for this and it’s just a giant clusterfuck.

Any sufficiently advanced technology materialist analysis is indistinguishable from magic the lathe.

Same as it ever was. They never really stopped stealing oil tankers. Or really oil in general come to think of it.

To address this decline, the Trump administration has launched its “Golden Fleet” initiative

It’s golden everything for this gaudy asshole.

You can’t fire me! I quit!

I’m trying to think about what happens after the negotiations inevitably fail. We will see Ansarallah fully join the fighting but that’s probably it for large changes. The smaller changes are that Iran had time to process and analyze their tactics (especially the SAMbushes) and the US got more missiles and time to repair their aircraft. To reference Brandon, I don’t think anything fundamentally changed. Am I missing something?

They realize that they’re not a main character so they’re just having fun doing side quests and b stories while everyone else is distracted or busy. Organizing the peace talks is them trying to break back in to the main story.

We really are just waiting for negotiations to fail and for Iran to destroy more of the entity. Violence is the only language Israelis speak after all.

I disagree with a lot of this. My main criticism is that I think we’re in the middle of a complex and evolving situation and a lot of this is opportunism for the benefit of long term imperial projects as opposed to the plan for those projects. There are also many factions, goals, and unspoken impulses of empire to say that this is the one plan that they have.

Controlling commodity flows and especially fossil fuels is core to dollar hegemony. Taking back control of Iran and their oil has been a core goal for decades. It’s much easier for me to believe that a lot of imperial planners wanted Iran to be subjugated, but when it wasn’t quickly brought to heel they moved to take advantage of the oil shock.

Also, I doubt anyone in the deep state thinks that this is a serious and permanent plan. Within a decade most of the oil and gas that was destroyed will be rebuilt and renewable energy sources will have expanded significantly. This can only be temporary as the world moves away from fossil fuels and the systems of international control that the US has built and maintained.

That would require isolating China internationally which is impossible at this point. The US is in the process of losing its death grip on international finance and commodities. The sanction regime on Iran is dying because countries are being forced to open up diplomacy and trade with Iran to pay the tolls for the strait of hormuz and that’s been in place for decades. Trying to achieve that with China just can’t be done since countries would be committing economic suicide. The only countries that would be stupid enough to do that would be the satanically racist euro vassals and Argentina.

Yeah that’s part of what makes the reaction here strange. We know that Pakistan and China were pressuring and helping Iran into the ceasefire. We don’t know what all of the other countries are doing to pressure Iran to open the strait. This war will cause a global economic crisis that will last years and Iran needs to show why it’s acting the way that it is. Iran needs to show that they gave peace a chance and the Israelis spit on their face.

They believe that destruction serves their material interests. That’s how they’ve operated for decades towards every country in the region. The only countries they don’t touch are ones that have been either been beaten into submission like Jordan and Egypt or are loyal vassals of the empire like the Saudis.

I can’t predict what the Israeli leadership is really thinking, but they likely think that destroying more of Iran is better because the US will underwrite whatever loses they suffer themselves. We need to remember that their logic and reality is fundamentally different to ours, especially because of their fascist death drive to be at war 24/7.

• Likely timeline: this war phase runs at least to end of the year, potentially longer, with conditions changing non‑linearly (step‑changes/phase shifts) rather than gradually.

June 2027: The 48th ceasefire has collapsed with Israel bombing Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon as usual. Iran has occupied Bahrain, southern Kuwait, and the UAE. Saudi Arabia exists only as deserted cities and charred pipelines. President Trump is still writing truth social posts at 3 am saying that the Strait of Hormuz is open for business and all military objectives have been met.

The Hexbear news mega still keeps starting on Wednesdays somehow.