Yes unfortunately that will be case I fear, but even in such a shit situation I can see our LGBT community coming together to make sure they survive and take care of one another as they’ve done before. For as long as there’s contradictions, there will be leftists and our time will come, so stay strong brother, It’s nice to see another Armenian here 
If you want to play the blame game then I can do this all day mate. Any country that denies and makes a mockery of the Armenian genocide, conducted multiple pogroms in the 80s in major Azerbaijani cities against Armenians has no right to complain about ethnic minorities not wanting to be a part of their fascist state.
I think it will be Kocharyan or maybe Serj Sarksyan (less likely, too unpopular). At this point tho it hardly matters, they can just put a dog there and give him orders. The more pressing issue is how our society will act after yet another shock to it. Can we maintain what little social progress we have made since 2018? Or will the next government be as reactionary and corrupt as they were before (highly likely, the gays are coming for us) and drive emigration numbers up (plenty of anti-war Russians and maybe even western companies will seek an exit from Armenia and take their precious investments with them).
The problem is there is nothing to court, we can’t offer the west anything of value outside of MAYBE convincing them that if Armenia is compromised then the Turkish state gains a lot more power and within the current geopolitical configuration , you don’t want that. However, this is not a great idea because nobody in the region and especially Iran and Russia don’t want to see anything remotely western near them.
Iran will never dare get into a conflict with Turkey and Azerbaijan even if the Turks push the issue of the corridor through Syunik, because I doubt the US and Israel will miss the opportunity to start some shit with Iran if Iran chooses to get involved. I’m pretty confident that the current military operation against Artsakh is not solely to fully integrate it into Azerbaijan, that is more or less done at this point because all parties bar Armenia are fine with that outcome. The bigger aim will be forcefully opening that road through Syunik or creating such a situation (overthrow/blackmail Pashinyan) that Armenia has to agree to grant that road and obviously the only people that can be trusted by all parties to protect that road will be Russians.
Pashinyan has absolutely no leverage over anyone, the man is incompetent and thinks that organising military exercises with the US or talking to Macron (or the Pelosi visit lol) is gonna give him leverage over Russians or Turks. We definitely don’t want to turn into Ukraine and have Armenia proper be a battle ground, so the only option left unfortunately is to bite our tongue, get rid of Pashinyan and turn into Belarus.
Thanks mate, I appreciate it
Sending hundreds of thousands to their deaths for some cheeky cheeseburger and privatization.
So the situation for Karabakh and Armenia in general looks dire right now. There have been reports of more Azeri military equipment being moved and gathered along the border, which most likely is coordinated with Turkey and the Russians must also be aware since Erdogan and Putin met and one of the issues they must’ve discussed is the situation in Karabakh. From what I understand Turkey and Azerbaijan are doing everything they can to make sure Iran and Russia won’t have a problem with further military action from Azerbaijan as a way to force Armenia for further concessions, because they have done it before and it works every time. Turkey and Azerbaijan are also big into military cooperation and integration, basically making it a single army trained by Turkish NATO officers. Russia also desperately wants our PM Pashinyan to resign ever since the “velvet revolution” when he came to power and kicked out the previous more Russia aligned people. The 2020 war loss didn’t kick Pashinyan out, but a total loss of Karabakh and ethnic cleansing might do it. I think the Russians in general, just like with Ukraine, don’t really see Armenia as a sovereign state, because we’re too small and can’t really defend ourselves against much more resource rich and bigger population having neighbours, and if you can’t stay true to your so called “red lines” then any talk of sovereignty and independent position is null and void.
Politically, both the west and Russia at this point are more than happy to let Azerbaijan have Karabakh because they keep reiterating that in fact it was Armenia who acknowledged the territory as part of Azerbaijan, without giving any historical context as to why it may be a bad idea to hand people over to a country which in the late 80s was committing pogroms against them and outright denies the Armenian genocide as a hoax. Azerbaijan also has close ties with Israel lately and gets weapons from there as they did in 2020, but the most valuable thing is perhaps their approach to ethnic cleansing, they are learning from the best the way Gazaification of Karabakh is going. The Aliyev regime knows full well that Armenians will never trust them, especially when in 2020 innocent civilians in Karabakh were being beheaded and one of their heads ended up being used by 2 Azeri soldiers as a football.
The problem with much of western analysis of the conflict is that it focuses solely on Karabakh without talking about Armenia itself. Last year around this time Azerbaijan attacked and took positions in Armenia proper, but idiotic and corrupt publications such as the BBC were talking about Karabakh when it had nothing to do with it. In general there is absolutely no attention being paid to the words of Azerbaijani officials (EU politicians love bribes and gas contracts) when they say that they want a corridor through Armenia to their Nakhichevan enclave (or even wilder fantasies where the whole of Armenia is ancient Azeri land), but such a thing was never approved or discussed with Armenia and only came to be after the war where Armenia was already weak and they knew they could push for further concessions. One of the big reasons for military action would be to forcefully open that road since we don’t want to discuss it without also including the issue of safety guarantees for the 120k people trapped in Karabakh. Oh and they already made and flag and are claiming southern Armenia (where I’m from) as also part of their territory, so this opening of a corridor can very much be a way to isolate the south and make it easier to attack.
Lastly, my forecast is that Armenians in Karabakh will soon really start starving and within the next month or two maximum we will see more military action from Azerbaijan. They will succeed in their blackmail, our hapless PM will fall to his knees in front of the west for security guarantees, but of course nothing will be given or guaranteed and instead we will be given a table by the french where they go “please guys don’t fight let’s talk about it, BOTH SIDES BOTH SIDES!!!”. What’s more insane is that Armenia the other day sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine, which is extra funny given that Ukraine has far closer ties to Azerbaijan and they were cheering on Azerbaijan when in 2020 they “got their land back”. This just goes to show the absolute desperate state that we’re in, where you can’t really ask anything from anyone, you’re just a ball being kicked around.
If I do go to the army (90% chance) they will most likely send me to the border every other month, which basically amounts to 9 months at the border (18 months minus basic training). The Russian “peacekeeping” force has a contract until 2025 which means I’m definitely going to be there when shit hits the fan. What’s more scary is that in the last year out of 50 deaths in the army only 13 were from the enemy, the rest are soldiers and commanders murdering one another because they have access to guns, no one can snitch on anyone (criminal/mafia mentality) and all these deaths get counted as suicide and none of the parents so far have been able to do anything to bring justice. Sorry for the long post, but ye, fun times ahead.
My passport expired so can’t really go anywhere but back home 
Bit off topic, but Germany denied my asylum application even tho I learned to code and have a job (westoids won’t let mfer stay even when it’s in their interest), which means most likely I’ll be sent to the army back home cuz I dodged it. Would be insane if at the peak of my life I end up on some telegram channel being blown to pieces by a Turkish drone, while reddiors watch it on r/combatfootage and make jokes. 
This is not new it has been recognised as part of Azerbaijan since the 90s, Armenians there were only seeking ways to preserve their existence, which is why the whole issue of self-determination was brought up throughout the history of the conflict. However, every time Armenia and Azerbaijan came to an agreement the Azeri side pulled out of it, because they were playing the long game. When you have 3-4 times the population + oil and gas, you know it’s only a matter of time before you can restart military campaigns against a much smaller and weaker opponent.
It is funny how Russia is crying about Crimea, LPR and DPR, which the NK government even recognised as part of Russia in a attempt to appease papa Putin so he will help us, but of course Putin has a different calculus. Land belongs to the one that can hold it, end of. Every other moral appeal to “but this is our indigenous land” or “we were here before you” falls on deaf ears, and material analysis once again proves to be unbeaten.