If you take standard cosmological assumptions (the universe is infinite and homogeonous) then the odds are 100% as everything that is physically possible happens infinite times.
unless you mean the observable universe, in which case we dont know, but given the vast scale of it is likely very close to 1. We cant calculate it without knowing how likely life is to form in the first place.
I’m not sure exactly how else you might calculate it, but, we know life is possible, so in an infinitely large universe, containing infinite stars with infinite planets existing for an infinite amount of time, the odds of life existing on another planet can’t be less than 100%.
I find this wildly unbelievable claim that Earth would be somehow special one-off life thing, and I am puzzled how big leap of faith it requires, and how many people are willing to believe in this.
It would be crazy to think that a thing that has definitely happened, can only ever happen precisely once, unless it comes with a force that the thing exerts, which actively prevents the same thing from happening again. So first, it has to be possible, but the thing happening, also makes it impossible to happen again.
In case of sentient life, this logic requires some crazy “sentient life planets -dimension” with size of exactly 1. For the first some billions of years it was empty. Now sentient life on planet Earth exists, so no other planet anywhere in universe may reach sentient life. That just doesn’t seem to be the case. We can’t detect anything of the sort. Not even in that general direction, just absolutely nothing of the sort exists. None.
Then, how could it ever be the case, that sentient life has emerged exactly once, and not zero, and not two or more times. Zero would make sense. More than zero would make sense. But precisely one - that makes no sense at all, since we don’t exert an active suppressing force to the rest of the entire universe - and not just the observable but the whole dang thing currently beyond our scope due to very slow speed of causality in these distances. It’s just mad. We’re not special snowflakes, people who say this are just idiots.
Please subtract the assumptions and respond to specific claim. Life is a lottery. What are the equivalent chances of that in coinflips analogy and then give the response in the approximate amount of times that could happen over an eternity or minimally the “death of our galaxy or universe” context
Nobody knows the exact odds of life being created, but we know it’s >0. One in a billion? Trillion?
So imagine a trillion sided die. If you roll a 1, life is created.
If you get only one chance, you probably aren’t creating life, but if you are allowed to roll the die constantly from the instant of the big bang, until the end of time, you WILL roll a one. Now, imagine an infinite number of planets rolling an infinite number of trillion sided dice for billions of years.
Sure, it’s very unlikely for any individual roll to be 1, but it’s downright IMPOSSIBLE for NONE of them to EVER roll it.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not claiming that there are aliens flying around and probing people. I don’t believe that’s true at all. But there is life out there. Maybe it’s just plants or bacteria, or some form of living rock that we’ve never encountered before, but it’s out there.
I say it’s arrogant because Earth is a tiny insignificant speck in the universe, and assuming that only YOUR planet can randomly produce life is a very self centered point of view.
For life in general I would agree but for human level intelligence I’m not so sure, in our galaxy anyway. The number of things that had to line up for us to be the dominant lifeform on the planet is enormous.
Goldilocks zone.
Life.
Large outer gas giants.
Complex life (someone correct me if I’m wrong but I believe this has only happened once in 4B years / all complex lifeforms have a common ancestor)
Oxygen tolerant life.
Hundreds of millions of years of evolution.
Multiple mass extinctions.
Planet habitable for enormously long periods.
Evolution of large brains for the first time.
Etc
Has anyone calculated like “the odds” of it probabalistically?
If you take standard cosmological assumptions (the universe is infinite and homogeonous) then the odds are 100% as everything that is physically possible happens infinite times.
unless you mean the observable universe, in which case we dont know, but given the vast scale of it is likely very close to 1. We cant calculate it without knowing how likely life is to form in the first place.
I’m not sure exactly how else you might calculate it, but, we know life is possible, so in an infinitely large universe, containing infinite stars with infinite planets existing for an infinite amount of time, the odds of life existing on another planet can’t be less than 100%.
The Drake Equation is a probabilistic formula meant to derive the number of civilizations which humans could potentially communicate with.
The fermi paradox does challenge the formula though, as it implies fi and/or fc are very small or zero.
What if the earth is a singular and universal outlier?
I find this wildly unbelievable claim that Earth would be somehow special one-off life thing, and I am puzzled how big leap of faith it requires, and how many people are willing to believe in this.
It would be crazy to think that a thing that has definitely happened, can only ever happen precisely once, unless it comes with a force that the thing exerts, which actively prevents the same thing from happening again. So first, it has to be possible, but the thing happening, also makes it impossible to happen again.
In case of sentient life, this logic requires some crazy “sentient life planets -dimension” with size of exactly 1. For the first some billions of years it was empty. Now sentient life on planet Earth exists, so no other planet anywhere in universe may reach sentient life. That just doesn’t seem to be the case. We can’t detect anything of the sort. Not even in that general direction, just absolutely nothing of the sort exists. None.
Then, how could it ever be the case, that sentient life has emerged exactly once, and not zero, and not two or more times. Zero would make sense. More than zero would make sense. But precisely one - that makes no sense at all, since we don’t exert an active suppressing force to the rest of the entire universe - and not just the observable but the whole dang thing currently beyond our scope due to very slow speed of causality in these distances. It’s just mad. We’re not special snowflakes, people who say this are just idiots.
Chances are they won’t be oxygen breathers anyway.
Do we already have that with the crazy anerobic volcano or the high-temperature deep sea vent dwelling microorganisms or something?
That’s just arrogant.
Please subtract the assumptions and respond to specific claim. Life is a lottery. What are the equivalent chances of that in coinflips analogy and then give the response in the approximate amount of times that could happen over an eternity or minimally the “death of our galaxy or universe” context
I’ll break it down further.
We know life is possible, because we’re here.
Nobody knows the exact odds of life being created, but we know it’s >0. One in a billion? Trillion?
So imagine a trillion sided die. If you roll a 1, life is created.
If you get only one chance, you probably aren’t creating life, but if you are allowed to roll the die constantly from the instant of the big bang, until the end of time, you WILL roll a one. Now, imagine an infinite number of planets rolling an infinite number of trillion sided dice for billions of years.
Sure, it’s very unlikely for any individual roll to be 1, but it’s downright IMPOSSIBLE for NONE of them to EVER roll it.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not claiming that there are aliens flying around and probing people. I don’t believe that’s true at all. But there is life out there. Maybe it’s just plants or bacteria, or some form of living rock that we’ve never encountered before, but it’s out there.
I say it’s arrogant because Earth is a tiny insignificant speck in the universe, and assuming that only YOUR planet can randomly produce life is a very self centered point of view.
Bold of you to assume life on earth originated on earth.
For life in general I would agree but for human level intelligence I’m not so sure, in our galaxy anyway. The number of things that had to line up for us to be the dominant lifeform on the planet is enormous.
Goldilocks zone. Life. Large outer gas giants. Complex life (someone correct me if I’m wrong but I believe this has only happened once in 4B years / all complex lifeforms have a common ancestor) Oxygen tolerant life. Hundreds of millions of years of evolution. Multiple mass extinctions. Planet habitable for enormously long periods. Evolution of large brains for the first time. Etc
It was calculated decades ago. I remember Carl Sagan talking about it.