The Fifth National Climate Assessment is the US Government’s preeminent report on climate change impacts, risks, and responses. It is a congressionally mandated interagency effort that provides the scientific foundation to support informed decision-making across the United States.
Straight to table 17.1
https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/17/#table-17-1
There will be water wars by 2040, the number is conservative. We should expect much worse than this.