I think that the results are “high” as much as 10 percent because the researcher do not want to downplay how “intelligent” their new technology is. But it’s not that intelligent as we and they all know it. There is currently 0 chance any “AI” can cause this kind of event.
Current systems aren’t, but development is exponential. AI systems have been doubling in complexity every six months or so. If that rate continues, systems available in 2033 will be around a million times more capable than GPT4, and quadrilion times as complex in 2043.
Given the delta between GPT3 and GPT4, the concerns start to seem extremely valid.
Not directly, no. But the tools we have already that allow to imitate voice and faces in video streams in realtime can certainly be used by bad actors to manipulate elections or worse. Things like that - especially if further refined - could be used to figuratively pour oil into already burning political fires.
the results are “high” as much as 10 percent because the researcher do not want to downplay how “intelligent” their new technology is. But it’s not that intelligent as we and they all know it. There is currently 0 chance any “AI” can cause this kind of event.
Yes, the current state is not that intelligent. But that’s also not what the expert’s estimate is about.
The estimates and worries concern a potential future, if we keep improving AI, which we do.
This is similar to being in the 1990s and saying climate change is of no concern, because the current CO2 levels are no big deal. Yeah right, but they won’t stay at that level, and then they can very well become a threat.
I think that the results are “high” as much as 10 percent because the researcher do not want to downplay how “intelligent” their new technology is. But it’s not that intelligent as we and they all know it. There is currently 0 chance any “AI” can cause this kind of event.
Current systems aren’t, but development is exponential. AI systems have been doubling in complexity every six months or so. If that rate continues, systems available in 2033 will be around a million times more capable than GPT4, and quadrilion times as complex in 2043.
Given the delta between GPT3 and GPT4, the concerns start to seem extremely valid.
Not directly, no. But the tools we have already that allow to imitate voice and faces in video streams in realtime can certainly be used by bad actors to manipulate elections or worse. Things like that - especially if further refined - could be used to figuratively pour oil into already burning political fires.
Yes, the current state is not that intelligent. But that’s also not what the expert’s estimate is about.
The estimates and worries concern a potential future, if we keep improving AI, which we do.
This is similar to being in the 1990s and saying climate change is of no concern, because the current CO2 levels are no big deal. Yeah right, but they won’t stay at that level, and then they can very well become a threat.