Given the current state of partisan polarization, it’s unlikely Biden can get majority job approval next year even with the most fortunate set of circumstances. But the good news for him is that he probably doesn’t have to. Job-approval ratings are crucial indicators in a normal presidential reelection cycle that is basically a referendum on the incumbent’s record. Assuming Trump is the Republican nominee, 2024 will not be a normal reelection cycle for three reasons.
Why does anyone presume that his opponent will be the orange guy? If he hasn’t keeled over with hamberders and buckets of KFC, he still has 91 felonies hanging over his head. He likely will be imprisoned, or disqualified by then.
Because he’s winning the primaries now by some distance, it’s not illegal for him to run from prison and at least one state court has already decided that he did engage in an insurrection but that that doesn’t disqualify him either.
I thought they decided that he did but that didn’t disqualify him.
Here I am thinking they decided that he did but that didn’t disqualify him.
What are you implying? That they decided he did but that didn’t disqualify him?
Listen, I’m not sure where you get your news, but what I’m reading is that they decided he did, but that didn’t disqualify him.
Found the typical Lemmy user! Always reading things and then thinking about things before commenting on things. You need to go back and re-read what you were reading when you read that, because it’s clear that they decided he did, but that didn’t disqualify him.
Well for starters a lot of his full trial dates are being set for after the primaries
They’re basically trying to take what comy did to Clinton and dial it to 11
Speaking of which, the Russian emails, had presumably classified information. The rules over classified documents are to never comment about them, because any information released is another clue about what is contained in actual classified documents. This left Clinton in a limbo of not being able to defend herself, while being smeared. Comey, believed the emails, until they were fully investigated and well after the election. We didn’t hear about the planted parts, one way or the other, because of those same security rules. I DO remember the US security council trying to limit damage after Trump was elected.
The GOP has a choice of whom to run. I assume there will be a way that will be found, for them to switch candidates, if Trump is in prison, Even if it occurs in the window between his winning the primary, and election, they will find a way. It may even be to their advantage, as the new candidate receives Trumps blessing and gives Trump clemency.
Russian emails? Are you thinking of the Wikileaks stuff, with the hacked data from Clinton’s campaign staffers? I am pretty sure those are different and separate from the emails that Comey was investigating for the FBI.
There are two “Hilary’s emails” stories. It is easy to confuse the two – Republicans worked very hard throughout 2016 to make it easy to confuse the two – yet they are two different series of events and almost totally unrelated to one another.
The original “Buttery Males” story: Comey and the FBI investigated emails that were stored on a private server owned by the Clinton Foundation, a server that Hilary had used for official business while serving as Secretary of State. In July of 2016, Comey announced that while they did find a small number of documents marked “classified” stored on the server, this violation was obviously inadvertent and should not be prosecuted. “Sloppy but not criminal,” or something like that. Then later in October (after taking a few months of heat from his fellow Republicans for not going after Clinton harder) Comey announced that there may be files on a laptop owned by Hilary’s assistant, Huma Abedin, that the FBI had not yet had a chance to review. Comey announced this privately to a congressional committee and it was leaked almost instantly, about a week before election day.
The “From Russia with Love” email story: Meanwhile, Russian hackers infiltrated Hilary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign and stole thousands of personal emails and other data from her staffers and people they’d communicated with. None of these emails were classified and the FBI never investigated the Clinton campaign in this case (except as the victims of a crime). Wikileaks and Julian Assange got in on the action and built up lots of hype. That’s when, in the middle of a campaign speech, Trump made his famous on-stage plea: “Russia, if you’re listening, I hope you’re able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing. I think you will probably be rewarded mightily by our press.”
Trump was clever, mendaciously associating the original “classified documents on your private server” controversy with the “Russia stole your data and is about to release it on Wikileaks” controversy, but the two stories don’t really have anything to do with one another, at all, and they never really did.
I also have been wondering what the race will look like in six months, when all this speculation about Trump’s trials (and potential prison time?) will be upon us for real.
Legally (so far at least) they say Trump can run from prison. If he were to win, as POTUS he’d have many options available to clear his name, dismiss his accusers, and attack his opponents.
I don’t think Trump will give another candidate his endorsement, even from prison. If he does, it won’t be without that other candidate publicly swearing fealty and promising to grant clemency, as you say. The way I see it, any candidate who’d be willing to do that will look weak and subservient, and probably look worse than Trump’s going to look, even from prison, by the time they get to the general election.
I think the only way another candidate wins the GOP nomination is by taking it from Trump – not by Trump lending it out to them.
Good points. A sycophant will rail about how unfair the partisan attacks have been against Trump. They will right this grievous wrong, and will pardon Trump. Anything less is akin to leaving a fallen warrior behind.
The GOP would never go against whomever wins the primary and he is facing state level charges as well as federal.
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Tall me about one billionaire that suffered the consequences of his actions. You can’t because they’re no one.
I take your point, but Madoff and Bankman-Fried are the quickest to come to mind. It’s rare, but it does happen, and usually because of financial crimes that affect other billionaires.
The only rule of life: never steal from people richer than you.
Ninety-one will be a massive string of rolling the dice and coming up winning every single one. His legal teams are not doing so well. The best ones would not touch it. For some reason, they prefer clients who pay.
Not to mention all the civil cases, which seem to be increasing every day.
I’m interested in the wrongful death suits brought by the police officers killed as a result of the January 6th attack.
Edit: and here they now come https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/01/politics/trump-presidential-immunity-january-6-lawsuits/index.html
Most of those won’t go to trial until after the election, and the courts have shown zero desire to actually punish him in a meaningful way. I will be very surprised if he is not the candidate
Yeah it would be surprising, it would also upend the entire democratic election strategy so not planning for that outcome is still a risk. Biden is a huge liability if anyone but trump comes out to rep the gop.
Literally every trial begins before the election.
You really think Trump will serve any time? If it were anyone else I might agree. Can’t wait to see how this plays out.
I wish I had your optimism.
He shouldn’t have been the nominee in 2016, either. It’s not safe to assume anything at this point.
The Russian playbook of getting dirt to smear an opponent did not work when the Biden hard drive was shown to be Russian sourced. Gulianni’s provider is charged as being a foreign agent, as of a week or so ago.
Why do you assume that he will suddenly begin seeing proportionate consequences for his actions in the next 12 months when it’s never once happened in his life before this point?
I agree with your disposition toward him and admire and envy your optimism…I just don’t share it.
I’m old and cynical, but my opinion is that Trump will never go to prison. That is a pipe dream.
I’m hoping for Christie