return2ozma@lemmy.world to United States | News & Politics@lemmy.ml · 2 年前Harris and Trump are tied in 538's new polling averagesabcnews.go.comexternal-linkmessage-square19fedilinkarrow-up137cross-posted to: politics@lemmy.world
arrow-up137external-linkHarris and Trump are tied in 538's new polling averagesabcnews.go.comreturn2ozma@lemmy.world to United States | News & Politics@lemmy.ml · 2 年前message-square19fedilinkcross-posted to: politics@lemmy.world
minus-squareatzanteol@sh.itjust.workslinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up11·2 年前 538 had Hillary beating Trump in 2016. No they didn’t. They had Hillary with something like a 60% chance of winning. That’s not “had Hillary beating Trump” that’s “Hillary was more likely to win than Trump.”
minus-squareBen Hur Horse Race@lemm.eelinkfedilinkarrow-up4·2 年前I dont have proof, but I believe it was a hell of a lot higher than 60％
minus-squarePowerCrazy@lemmy.mllinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up6·2 年前It was. IIRC, it got up to almost 90% in mid October. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
minus-squareatzanteol@sh.itjust.workslinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up4·2 年前It wasn’t 100%. It’s a forecast not a premonition.
minus-squareDogPeePoo@lemm.eelinkfedilinkarrow-up4·edit-22 年前Sure, Jan You know how the internet works, right? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ Don’t miss the forest for the trees. The point being— polls are shit 💩 GET OUT AND VOTE!!!
minus-squareatzanteol@sh.itjust.workslinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up6·2 年前You know how probability works right? No, of course you don’t. Almost nobody does…
minus-squarePheonixdown@lemm.eelinkfedilinkarrow-up3·2 年前Some of us play XCOM, 95% chance to hit might as well be 0% when you need 100%, usually means it’s time for a grenade.
No they didn’t. They had Hillary with something like a 60% chance of winning. That’s not “had Hillary beating Trump” that’s “Hillary was more likely to win than Trump.”
I dont have proof, but I believe it was a hell of a lot higher than 60％
It was. IIRC, it got up to almost 90% in mid October. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
It wasn’t 100%. It’s a forecast not a premonition.
Sure, Jan
You know how the internet works, right?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Don’t miss the forest for the trees. The point being— polls are shit 💩
GET OUT AND VOTE!!!
You know how probability works right? No, of course you don’t. Almost nobody does…
Some of us play XCOM, 95% chance to hit might as well be 0% when you need 100%, usually means it’s time for a grenade.
Hah! Excellent example. 😆