The United States has had the luxury of an all-volunteer military for slightly longer than I’ve been alive. My name went on the Selective Service roster. They keep that list. They’re having recruitment and retention problems. And the United States has a much bigger population than the likes of Finland.
We had recruiting problems because we had unrealistic medical standards. For decades people just lied about what they could. Then we decided to use a system that could actually check the records of recruits.
Once waivers were made easily available, instead of months of admin work, recruiting goals were magically met again.
Now we are having recruiting problems for entirely different issues. It also just so happened the easier waivers coincidentally went into affect when we were already going to meet recrui goals. Nowadays a draft would mean the end of America. Something like 70% of all Americans are unable to be drafted for one reason or another, and the last 30 would more than likely riot and shoot recruiters at the first opportunity.
Something like 70% of all Americans are unable to be drafted
Under the widest interpretation of the strict medical rules. This has been blown way out of proportion. Also much of the number is supposedly excluded under the height and weight standards which we know don’t even correlate with PT scores outside of run time. And god forbid we have people who run their 2 mile a tad slower when we know combat is sprinting, and sprinting is muscle.
Rant aside, busting tape isn’t even disqualifying. Which is why that number is misinformation at best.
The study they’re referencing is specifically 17-24 but they’re also severely misquoting it. Which isn’t surprising because conservative news sources spent a lot of time trying to use it to paint our youth as useless layabouts.
Yes, 11% are because of weight. However you have to very very overweight, like 300 pounds, before they don’t just give you a waiver and a weight loss program at the replacement company everyone goes through before basic. Same with convictions and alcohol issues. In that age group alcohol issues usually means an under age drinking ticket. Which is a waiver. Alcoholism, if it’s on your record somewhere, is waiverable after some years dry. Most people with convictions actually have a single drug possession charge which is also a waiver. Medical is a lot harder but there’s millions of kids who are ADHD kids and they just get a waiver for their Ritalin use.
The 70% percent number is strictly without waivers involved. Most of them are very easy waivers to get, and in the case of a draft they’d have a standing waiver for draftees. Nobody is going to be 4F for carrying some chub through high school.
thanks for that detailed explanation, i value that. thats very interesting. yeah, i was in military at age twenty, we had a couple of bigger dudes, and they all passed those tests you have after 3 months.
at the first 5 km march someone died though. heart failure, nobody knew about his heart condition. luckily, that dude wasn’t in my building. pacing was way slower after that incident. they were deeply ashamed about that accident…
According to the 2020 Pentagon Qualified Military Available Study. 77% of American 17 to 24 are not qualified, of that 77%, 11% are overweight beyond a waiver, 8% cannot due to alcohol or drug abuse, 7% cannot due to mental or physical health, aptitude or conduct was 2%, and multiple reasons was listed at 20% including a combination of the above and factors like prior convictions.
So low end 48% of 17 to 24 year olds are inelligble. This doesn’t include specific draft exemptions like being in college or working with critical infrastructure which have always been exempt from selective service.
The topline of the study is specifically the percentage of 17-24 year olds who can join without a waiver. There is no “beyond a waiver” category in the study. Surely some of them are beyond a waiver, but the study does not make that distinction.
And it straight up says the reduction of availability is because of an increase in standards, not a decrease in the population’s capacity.
The United States has had the luxury of an all-volunteer military for slightly longer than I’ve been alive. My name went on the Selective Service roster. They keep that list. They’re having recruitment and retention problems. And the United States has a much bigger population than the likes of Finland.
We had recruiting problems because we had unrealistic medical standards. For decades people just lied about what they could. Then we decided to use a system that could actually check the records of recruits.
Once waivers were made easily available, instead of months of admin work, recruiting goals were magically met again.
Now we are having recruiting problems for entirely different issues. It also just so happened the easier waivers coincidentally went into affect when we were already going to meet recrui goals. Nowadays a draft would mean the end of America. Something like 70% of all Americans are unable to be drafted for one reason or another, and the last 30 would more than likely riot and shoot recruiters at the first opportunity.
Under the widest interpretation of the strict medical rules. This has been blown way out of proportion. Also much of the number is supposedly excluded under the height and weight standards which we know don’t even correlate with PT scores outside of run time. And god forbid we have people who run their 2 mile a tad slower when we know combat is sprinting, and sprinting is muscle.
Rant aside, busting tape isn’t even disqualifying. Which is why that number is misinformation at best.
you have to take in account that of all those people, there are babies, people over 55, schoolchildren, and what have you.
and try to draft a politician or a steelt factory worker, or an electronic specialist. that will not happen.
The study they’re referencing is specifically 17-24 but they’re also severely misquoting it. Which isn’t surprising because conservative news sources spent a lot of time trying to use it to paint our youth as useless layabouts.
ah, sorry, i didnt look that far. i should have. maybe its because of obesity? also, iq under 80 is not draftable.
Yes, 11% are because of weight. However you have to very very overweight, like 300 pounds, before they don’t just give you a waiver and a weight loss program at the replacement company everyone goes through before basic. Same with convictions and alcohol issues. In that age group alcohol issues usually means an under age drinking ticket. Which is a waiver. Alcoholism, if it’s on your record somewhere, is waiverable after some years dry. Most people with convictions actually have a single drug possession charge which is also a waiver. Medical is a lot harder but there’s millions of kids who are ADHD kids and they just get a waiver for their Ritalin use.
The 70% percent number is strictly without waivers involved. Most of them are very easy waivers to get, and in the case of a draft they’d have a standing waiver for draftees. Nobody is going to be 4F for carrying some chub through high school.
thanks for that detailed explanation, i value that. thats very interesting. yeah, i was in military at age twenty, we had a couple of bigger dudes, and they all passed those tests you have after 3 months.
at the first 5 km march someone died though. heart failure, nobody knew about his heart condition. luckily, that dude wasn’t in my building. pacing was way slower after that incident. they were deeply ashamed about that accident…
According to the 2020 Pentagon Qualified Military Available Study. 77% of American 17 to 24 are not qualified, of that 77%, 11% are overweight beyond a waiver, 8% cannot due to alcohol or drug abuse, 7% cannot due to mental or physical health, aptitude or conduct was 2%, and multiple reasons was listed at 20% including a combination of the above and factors like prior convictions.
So low end 48% of 17 to 24 year olds are inelligble. This doesn’t include specific draft exemptions like being in college or working with critical infrastructure which have always been exempt from selective service.
The topline of the study is specifically the percentage of 17-24 year olds who can join without a waiver. There is no “beyond a waiver” category in the study. Surely some of them are beyond a waiver, but the study does not make that distinction.
And it straight up says the reduction of availability is because of an increase in standards, not a decrease in the population’s capacity.