While our findings suggest the U.S. is well on its way to reducing its dependence on China, there are important considerations to keep in mind:
First, while reducing trade risks and exposure may be attractive, doing so can also be costly. Industrial policy has a mixed track record at best and is often hard to remove. Similarly, changing suppliers may require paying significantly higher prices. Some of these costs might be passed on to final consumers or affect workers unevenly across sectors. Thus, it is crucial to investigate whether reducing dependence is worth it and when it is a calculated risk to be accepted.
Second, we focus on direct imports from China. However, to the extent that U.S. imports from other countries are produced using inputs from China, the U.S. may nevertheless remain dependent on indirect imports from China, even if direct dependence is reduced.
Finally, import shares may not fully capture the degree of industry exposure to a given country. Some goods may not account for a significant fraction of the total value imported but may be critical for welfare or output. For instance, even though semiconductors are a small fraction of car production costs, shortages of semiconductors had a significant impact in this industry. Thus, the degree of substitutability of the goods under consideration is critical for evaluating the degree of exposure and dependence.
Significant, considering most parts US manufacturing relies on are made in China. However the US has been “decoupling” from China by buying those parts through middlemen anyway, similar to what Russia does to buy goods from the West now. Per https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2024/jan/decoupling-where-it-matters-us-imports-from-china-in-critical-sectors
The US sanctioned itself, incredible.