Except they are already vibes based so there is no reason to think the initial approximation is accurate. They could all be massive overestimates. There is no reason they need to regress to the mean.
True, and that uncertainty is something that Drake himself never denied. It’s more of a quick heuristic explanation that outlines the main questions that a search for life would need to answer. I think of it as more of a binary equation that answers: Is there extraterrestrial life or isn’t there? The precise value is not that meaningful.
I think it’s a somewhat useful thought experiment for asking why we don’t observe EM signals like our own (albeit incomplete re: detectability of far off signals). But it is very anthropocentric so it also serves as a useful object of criticism, as even the questions it asks are probably wrong.
Except they are already vibes based so there is no reason to think the initial approximation is accurate. They could all be massive overestimates. There is no reason they need to regress to the mean.
True, and that uncertainty is something that Drake himself never denied. It’s more of a quick heuristic explanation that outlines the main questions that a search for life would need to answer. I think of it as more of a binary equation that answers: Is there extraterrestrial life or isn’t there? The precise value is not that meaningful.
I think it’s a somewhat useful thought experiment for asking why we don’t observe EM signals like our own (albeit incomplete re: detectability of far off signals). But it is very anthropocentric so it also serves as a useful object of criticism, as even the questions it asks are probably wrong.