Now in our second week of the conflict, we have seen continuing damage to both Israel and Iran, as well as direct US intervention which nonetheless seems to have caused limited damage to Fordow and little damage to Iran’s nuclear program. Regime change seems more elusive than ever, as even Iranians previously critical of the government now rally around it as they are attacked by two rabid imperialists at once. And Iran’s government is tentatively considering a withdrawal, or at minimum a reconsideration, of their membership to the IAEA and the NPT. And, of course, the Strait of Hormuz is still a tool in their arsenal.
A day or so on from the strike on Fordow, we have so far seen basically no change in strategy from the Iranian military as they continue to strike Israel with small barrages of missiles. Military analysts argue furiously - is this a deliberate strategy of steady attrition on Israel, or indicative of immense material constraints on Iran? Are the hits by Israel on real targets, or are they decoys? Does Iran wish to develop a nuke, or are they still hesitating? Will Iran and Yemen strike at US warships and bases in response to the attack, or will they merely continue striking only Israel?
And perhaps most importantly - will this conflict end diplomatically due to a lack of appetite for an extended war (to wit: not a peace but a 20 year armistice) or with Israel forced into major concessions including an end to their genocide? Or even with a total military/societal collapse of either side?
Last week’s thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Putin and Xi are not attending the BRICS summit in Brazil this year. IBS?
Putin is ostensibly not going because of his ICC arrest warrant. Xi is missing it for the first time ever.
Irritable Brazil Syndrome
I’ll do my best to explain the very likely reason for this, its the Brazilian First Lady TikTok controversy during the last meeting aka “the Janja(her nickname) controversy” is 90% of the reason, Xi isn’t risking going through that again until I’m betting after Brazil’s election next year at least.
For context this is relevant as Brazil has been making several pro-US moves and an attempt to “regulate” social media including Tik Tok obviously includes many angles one of them being obviously the image of the similar move by the US which felt obviously offensive to China.
You can translate what she says but its liberal nonsense about social media harming kids and favoring right wing discourse, which is funny because she should be up in arms against Trump and Facebook(Whatsapp is the biggest social media in BR) not fucking TikTok anyway. Now you go and see if the global south are about to talk down to Trump or even Biden in the same manner.
In any case there was also an Tiktok incident earlier with a child that died from one of those Tiktok challenges.
Here is the timeline for the record, there is 4 parts to this story.:
1- She interrupted the meeting to complain to Xi about Tik Tok and ask the CPC to send a “representative” to help legislate and control social media. This was leaked to the press and seen as a huge diplomatic faux pas. Janja’s Comment About TikTok Causes Tension During Lula-Xi Meeting
2- In a press conference the following day Lula is visibly angry with reporters brings out some nonsense excuse that she was talking on his behalf.
This is obviously saving face nonsense, this was a business meeting, Lula is not really technologically literate, nobody knew this was a topic to be discussed(decided in advance obvs), there is zero chance Lula would interrupt to talk about something randomly like this. Imagine being like “yeah so railroads are good but btw can you send me someone so we see how to best ban TikTok” sounds exactly as batshit random as you imagine.
3- It is also reported he was incredibly angry during the plane trip back and reprimanded the delegation. Poder360(ptbr)
4- A few days later, Lula’s obvious saving face narrative was finaly completely undermined by Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Viera who denies the “CPC technical expert-representative” part of the narrative.
Things eventualy calmed down and new controversies appeared, but in Brazil there were people on both sides trying to defend the First Lady while some just felt it was not appropriate and Lula comes out as an idiot anyway caught with his pants lying even if understandable. Many feel it was not appropriate as she is obviously not in an elected position.
This was a relatively big controversy despite the overall positive meeting.
When China says “previous meetings” this is undoubtedly part of the reason. Remember Xi doesn’t like leaks to the press(e.g Tradeu 2022) and while it isn’t necessarily harmful to China in anyway, China values respect as their first principle for diplomacy and this was obviously very disrespectful e.g it reinforced the CPC as the “owner” of Tiktok etc.
There is argument that Xi wouldn’t be there just to meet Lula again though so its just another point on how BRICS fickle is incredibly pointless beyond being a trade showroom anyway.
Ty for the explanation
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
The Brazilian Supreme Court already granted Putin a legal exception, so he could visit Brazil if he really wanted that.