- cross-posted to:
- hackernews@lemmy.bestiver.se
- technology@lemmit.online
- usa@lemmy.ml
- cross-posted to:
- hackernews@lemmy.bestiver.se
- technology@lemmit.online
- usa@lemmy.ml
The entire US economy right now is 7 companies sending a trillion fake dollars back and forth to each other, but it’s totally not a bubble according to grampa Powell.
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That’s the exact type of thing you hear near the peak of a bubble.
but they actually have earnings.
Of course they have. But the spendings are bigger.
Microsoft, Nvidia, AMD, Oracle and Intel are all profitable. They might not be worth as much, but still.
Those are all shovel sellers. People stop buying shovels when the gold rush goes bust.
The shovel manufacturers will probably be fine, just reduced margins, but the shovel warehouses are so fucked holding nearly a trillion dollars of worthless shovels
In the words of Pat Gelsinger, we’re about to see a lot of digestion.
more like, they are hoping IRON pyrite(fools gold) would be innovating as good as normal good or better.
Yes. It will all fall apart when all the regular businesses (not AI companies) realize that AI is just wasting their money and creating a big mess, not actually increasing their profits. These are supposed to be the big customers for AI and they’re really not benefiting from it at all.
the customers being only other CEOs and middle managment, whom try to reduce headcount/excuse to fire people. on some of the subs they discussed how the offshored tech indian teams are not as good as the ones in the west(EU, South america, and USA)
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some people made money during the gold rush selling shovels and eggs.
Oh, i didn’t think of hardware suppliers.
I wonder how much Powell invested in the Ai bubble to say that. Dotcoms and subprimes had revenue too during their bubbles.
These people are too big to fail. They will torch civilization, and this planet, to hold onto what they have.
One way to save some of us (but not them).
people were discussing this on reddit they said, the AI companies are hoping a retails(investors) sucker would be holding the bag, after they all cashed out.
I hope retail won’t be that stupid, but knowing WSB exists… It wouldn’t shock me.
Either way, there will be blood.
These fools are lying so often and obviously that they are starting to finally lose their base. They can’t even keep their own lies straight.
We call this the “breathing in one’s own farts to admire them” stage
And all of our retirement accounts are tied to this not-a-bubble
Speak for yourself, money bags
I’ve got enough in there to buy a used car, which I guess is my retirement residence at this point 🤷♀️
My first thought was… boy I wish I had a retirement account to lose
That’s why I protect my retirement from bubbles by investing in Bitcoin.
People are so fucking stupid these days I can’t tell if it’s a joke.
It used to be retirement but now its my push off losing my shelter funds.
Invest in global market index(es). At least try to diversify so that it’s not all S&P 500.
Hmm, when people like Powell start explaining that it’s not a bubble, I hear that it’s going to pop sooner rather than later. Especially when he cites “trust me, bro” as evidence.
and coincidentally at the same times GATES AND altman said the same thing about it busting.
The name of the crime that graph illustrates is “Round Tripping”.
Pump a group of stocks by moving money in circles and if you’re a short sighted fool you do this several times with leverage on leverage.
Of course there’s earnings. It’s just you don’t know the company that’s making money. It goes to another market so you wouldn’t have seen it before.
Well, there’s earnings, from Nvidia.
it goes from nvidia, open AI, oracle, MS, google and then back in a circle again and again.
Pretty sure Pets.com had earnings, too.
It is Palantir. I bet they are doing evil shit. The way Israel targeted public option and media to navigate what should have been quickly shut down by overwhelming public sentiment, was very abnormal from the abstract overview perspective.
Knowing all the stuff I have seen messing with my offline AI server on my hardware over the last two years, the amount of data scraped and collected by google for everyone on the internet should be more than enough to actively manipulate everyone both logically and emotionally. There is enormous political capital in that manipulative power.
We are experiencing the equivalent of the invention of the nuclear bomb for propaganda. Artificial agents that can manipulate people in ways we won’t understand fully for decades. We are fighting for the human mind right now and no one is talking about it except j4k3.
If you said soul, I would agree with you.
Are the earrings in the room with us now?
Sure, these companies have earnings, but then they go burn all of it plus more on training and inference and data centers and whatever the fuck else. It’s not profitable and it never will be. And yet they’re willing to bankrupt the country on this egregore that Sam Altman and his ilk have created.
It’s worse than that. The revenue of all except for NVIDIA (which supplies the graphics chips) is by selling subsidized products. It’s the classic Silicon Valley model of “growth at any cost” and then enshittifying; except the product they’re offering is intolerably expensive.
The AI products are not just losing money as a corporation; They’re losing money on making their revenue. Most will not pay $200 for a month of chatbot interactions. Most will not pay $200 to generate a handful of sloptok videos. The number of users of these AI programs is so high because the product is sold at a loss – and is being shoved in everyone’s face, all the time. It’s free/cheap entertainment for lonely and bored people. Once it hits their wallet, those commonfolk are gone.
Yup, the only real winner here is Nvidia, for selling the shovels for the gold rush. All the “AI” companies are just spending money to lose money. But I guarantee that - somehow - all of us commonfolk will be left holding the bag, not Clammy Sammy Altman.
It’ll probably be like W. Bush - a big bailout right as the Republican leaders are leaving their term. :P
We need bag holders and we need them NOW!
from what ive read, it could be retail that would be left holding the bag, and when that happens people in those industries will start losing jobs.
Not sure what you mean by “people in those industries”. In investment parlance, “retail” isn’t an industry, its individual investors. Y’know, people on the Robin Hood app YOLOing their life savings into Nvidia. So which industries are you referring to?
Just get Trump to shill it to his base; Like $TRUMP and $MELANIA and $TUAH and the golden “It’s Trump Time” watches and the Trump phone. Real patriots buy Open AI.
I mean, if you add enough circles to your graph, it just shows how the entire economy works. What’s the cutoff point where it’s an obvious bubble and when it is just normal economics in motion?
An easy litmus test would be: is value produced by system or product.
Sure, just define value…
Here’s an easy one: doesn’t lose tens of billions of dollars a year while destroying the environment
The cutoff point is, kind of definitionally, when the circles include economic industries that actually provide needs / major tax revenue etc.
That is the point. For insane investment, these industries are not providing needs, and they’re not providing particularly useful commodities, they’re generally taking basically as much in subsidies as they’re paying in taxes.
Currently we throw a shitton of resources in, we get meager usefulness out, and there’s no concrete promise that massively useful resources will ever come out. That’s… what a bubble is. And that’s why the graph illustrates it.
Most of these companies DO provide for normal needs and commodities. OpenAi is like the only one there that is solely an AI company. And these companies were profitable before all this.
And all those data centers aren’t suddenly useless if this bubble pops. That committing power can be used for other purposes. Unlike the for com bubble where those things were almost entirely digital products hosted on a couple of server racks in a basement somewhere. There a lot of infrastructure being built out here that doesn’t just vanish.
Most of these companies DO provide for normal needs and commodities
Ah yes I’ll just eat that Nvidia chip cereal, wear those clothes made by Oracle, live in my house made by Figure AI, and get healthcare (not fake AI slop) from CoreWeave.
Obviously these companies play a (very) marginal role in these industries. Nobody is saying the companies don’t do outside of AI that is useful. but the point is an absolutely enormous percentage of money (ie, all the dosh invested in AI) is not doing anything productive in these areas.
And all those data centers aren’t suddenly useless if this bubble pops.
We were not in great need of more data centers before the AI bubble. And those centres will be filled with AI tensor chips and not geared toward actual needs. I’m sure they can be partially salvaged, but to think they’ll be worth anything near the cost is just silly.
The normal economy that makes sense would look like this:
Company A buys parts from Company B to make a product. Their money comes from selling the product. If As product sells for only 10% of it’s cost, then A will soon fold and B loses a customer, but isn’t otherwise affected.
What we have in the graph though is Company B, Nvidia, investing money in all it’s customers, while those customers don’t make money from their product at the same time. Like, this is unreasonable even if we assume AI eventually takes off (it won’t), because most likely it will only be one of these many corps inventing the good AI and making money, while the others immediately die due to their product having become comparatively worthless. Nvidia would still be in the hole for a lot of money if that happens so I am not sure what they are thinking.
AI will take off. It may not be in the form of the LLMs that the media likes to focus on, there’s plenty of other models out there being built that are much better suited for their purposes than what many are trying to shoehorn LLMs into
This shit will stay too expensive to use in the mass market. Sure you can build some specialized app that does some obscure process really well, but that does not constitute a takeoff.
Ah yes, because history has shown that technology has NEVER gotten more efficient or cheaper over time…
“If we build the spruce goose 100 times larger, it will fly even better!”
It’s a tool for certain specialized applications that is being scaled up to high heaven in the hope that a mass use case will materialize out of the aether. It will not. Not a single one of these models does 10% of what these companies claim they do. At least the Spruce Goose could actually fly somewhere and land reliably in the water.
