When projected outcomes are described as “unlikely” or using similar negative terms, people think the projection is backed by less scientific evidence than when those same outcomes are framed in positive terms. They also think there’s less scientific consensus around negatively framed projections than equivalent positively framed ones.

These patterns hold even after controlling for participants’ beliefs about climate change, familiarity with the IPCC (surprisingly, Juanchich says, three-quarters of those who were asked had never heard of the organization), and overall political orientation.