Five months after releasing a plan to accelerate the development of artificial intelligence, the Trump administration is turning to robots. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has been meeting with robotics industry CEOs and is “all in” on accelerating the industry’s development, according to three people familiar with the discussions who were granted anonymity to share details. The administration is considering issuing an executive order on robotics next year, according to two of the people. A Department of Commerce spokesperson said: “We are committed to robotics and advanced manufacturing because they are central to bringing critical production back to the United States.” The Department of Transportation is also preparing to announce a robotics working group, possibly before the end of the year, according to one person familiar with the planning. A spokesperson for the department did not respond to a request for comment. There’s growing interest on Capitol Hill as well. A Republican amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act would have created a national robotics commission. The amendment was not included in the bill. Other legislative efforts are underway.

The flurry of activity suggests robotics is emerging as the next major front in America’s race against China. It’s the latest example of how the Trump administration is embracing industrial policy in a bid to compete against Beijing in critical sectors such as AI. But promoting the spread of robotics also threatens to undermine one of Trump’s chief goals: reviving the U.S. manufacturing workforce. A general-purpose humanoid sounds like science fiction. But advances in artificial intelligence are enabling human-like robots to take on increasingly sophisticated work by processing more data more quickly. The International Federation of Robotics estimates that by 2023 China had 1.8 million industrial robots inside its factories, four times as many as the U.S. China, Japan, Australia, Germany and Singapore all have national robotics plans. Catching up would require substantial investment. Funding is on pace to hit $2.3 billion in 2025 – double last year’s total, according to CB Insights. Goldman Sachs estimates the global market for humanoids could reach $38 billion by 2035.

The industry has been pushing administration officials and lawmakers to get involved. They say robots are the physical expression of AI. Any push to strengthen AI competitiveness must also include a plan for advancing robotics, they say. Companies want tax incentives or federal funding to help companies integrate advanced automation, stronger supply chains and widespread deployment. They also want trade policies to confront Chinese subsidies and intellectual property practices. “It’s important that we lean in, think about a national robotics strategy and support this burgeoning industry in the U.S. so that we can remain competitive,” Apptronik CEO Jeff Cardenas told MM. Apptronik, an Austin startup backed by Google and valued at $5 billion, has developed a general-purpose robot called Apollo, one of the first humanoids to operate inside an auto factory.

Uh… why the fuck are they making humanoid factory robots? Like the whole advantage of robots is that you can make them NOT humanoid, and thus pick whichever shape is most optimal for the specific job it’s going to be doing, which in manufacturing is rarely that of a human - that’s why most industrial robots are basically just an arm with some tool attached to the end. Androids are cool in sci-fi settings, but very much not the most important style of robot in practice.

“There is now recognition that advanced robotics is crucial to the U.S. in terms of manufacturing, technology, national security, defense applications, public safety,” said Brendan Schulman, VP of policy and government relations for Boston Dynamics. “The investment that we’re seeing in the sector and the efforts in China to dominate the future of robotics are being noticed.” An unresolved question is how a national robotics push would square with the administration’s goal of reviving American manufacturing. Skeptics warn that if companies automate too aggressively, the U.S. could end up reshoring factories only to staff them with machines - not people. A paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that as firms automate, many workers in routine or replaceable roles experience lower employment opportunities and reduced earnings.

Another scenario looks very different - one where robotics and manufacturing reinforce each other and where workers build, deploy and maintain robots that power industrial growth. That’s the vision some in the industry are pushing. Jeff Burnstein, president of the Association for Advancing Automation, said robots make workers more productive, which could expand job opportunities. “When companies are investing in robotics they’re also investing in more people because their company is doing better,” he said. “It’s not man versus machine, but it’s man and machine that will take us into the future,” Cardenas said. “This is our view - robots that augment human capability and human capacity, versus robots that replace us. I think it’s important that we’re there first.”