By the end of the decade, EVs are set to displace over 5 mb/d of diesel and gasoline in the STEPS, and China’s EVs to account for half of displaced oil.

Electric LDVs drive most of the oil displacement, accounting for 80% today and around 77% by 2030. The relative impact of LDVs becomes smaller over time as technology developments and the expansion of charging infrastructure drive electrification in the heavy-duty segment, with electric trucks and buses together displacing nearly 1 mb/d in the STEPS by 2030.

(LDVs stand for Light-Duty Vehicles. This category typically includes passenger cars, SUVs, and small trucks (like pickups and vans) that are used for personal or light commercial purposes.)

https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/c0087308-f434-4284-b5bb-bfaf745c81c3/Oil2025.pdf