Israel being emboldened by America’s recent aggression in the Western hemisphere, decides to attempt simultaneous attacks and/ or decapitation strikes on Iran, Lebanon, Yemen, and Syria all at once. This ends up dragging Israel into a multi-front war with Iran, Hezbollah, Ansarallah, and maybeee HTS all at once.
Saudi Arabia, angered at Israel’s interference in Yemen, especially after the UAE recently used Somaliland (which Israel diplomatically recognized last month) to smuggle a UAE-backed STC leader into the UAE to avoid peace talks with the Saudis, decides to let the Iranian missiles and drones fly over Saudi airspace unimpeded.
Israel gets utterly overwhelmed and asks the US to intervene. America tries doing some precision airstrikes ala Iran 2025, but Iran cannot afford another “peace agreement” that results in a return to status quo when there’s currently mass protests/ colour revolution happening within their borders too. America continues airstrikes and decides to hit a nuclear facility partially run by Russians. Putin calls Trump and warns him to back off or he will retaliate ten fold in Ukraine. Trump agrees because Putin is a “nice, but tough guy” and he likes tough guys. Also, he is already too busy starting conflicts in the Western hemisphere.
Now there is no off ramp and the entire ME region has become an Arab-Iran vs. Israel conflict. Israel eventually faces internal revolt which forces the government leadership to flee the country, resulting in total chain of command collapse which the Palestinian resistance takes full advantage of to liberate the remaining occupied territories.
‘HTC’ do you mean HTS? they’re compradors with Israel and the west, Israel may(and I think already has to some extent) attempt to increase their occupied area of Syria beyond the Golan but HTS wouldn’t oppose it(at least physically)
Yeah it was a spelling mistake, I meant HTS. I’m aware they’re looking the other way when it comes to Israel/ US aggression in the region, but even a comprador has certain limits they are willing to tolerate (see the recent increased hostilities between Saudi Arabia and UAE over Yemen for example). I could see HTS turning against Israel if they were to hit Damascus directly or attack HTS-controlled military outposts to try and sow more chaos in Syria (a weakened Syria benefits Israel regardless of who is in charge) as Israel has avoided HTS targets entirely, so far.
Then again, HTS has said nothing of Israel still occupying the South-West of the country, so that’s why I put a maybe on HTS fighting Israel.
idk about that, these are my subjective opinions but I think that the HTS leadership is smart enough to know if they bite the hand that feeds them(the west and their landlocked aircraft carrier Israel) even in retaliation to deliberate strikes against their positions then they will likely face regime change, with the atrocities they’ve committed against Alawites and other groups that the western states have tacitly ignored untill now used as casus belli
So imo they wouldn’t fight back against strikes against their positions by Israel unless they were an existential threat to their control over the rest of Syria
I would argue Israel already is an existential threat to HTS’ control of Syria because they still occupy the South-West of the country.
The main factor is not the threat of regime change by the West, but how much HTS is willing to tolerate Israeli aggression before they completely lose support of the Syrian people. A comprador may not want to bite the hand that feeds them, but they also cannot ignore the hearts and minds of the masses. And the Syrian masses want peaceful self-governance after 15 years of civil war, NOT Israel invading and occupying their land. Right now, HTS can still ignore the South-West/ Golan Heights because they don’t have any control over that region, but if Israel decides to expand further towards North, or attack the capital directly, they will have a huge problem. If they still choose to not respond and keep focusing on fighting their civil war/ violently purging minorities, the Syrian people will start turning against them.
Of course, I could be getting ahead of myself here and maybe HTS will strike some official non-aggression pact and just let Israel keep the Golan Heights in the near future, but they can’t ignore the main contradictions in their own country forever.
only problem with this scenario is the Arabs actually having a backbone, once their daddy Amerikkka calls, these de generate gulf kingdoms will tow the line.
Israel being emboldened by America’s recent aggression in the Western hemisphere, decides to attempt simultaneous attacks and/ or decapitation strikes on Iran, Lebanon, Yemen, and Syria all at once. This ends up dragging Israel into a multi-front war with Iran, Hezbollah, Ansarallah, and maybeee HTS all at once.
Saudi Arabia, angered at Israel’s interference in Yemen, especially after the UAE recently used Somaliland (which Israel diplomatically recognized last month) to smuggle a UAE-backed STC leader into the UAE to avoid peace talks with the Saudis, decides to let the Iranian missiles and drones fly over Saudi airspace unimpeded.
Israel gets utterly overwhelmed and asks the US to intervene. America tries doing some precision airstrikes ala Iran 2025, but Iran cannot afford another “peace agreement” that results in a return to status quo when there’s currently mass protests/ colour revolution happening within their borders too. America continues airstrikes and decides to hit a nuclear facility partially run by Russians. Putin calls Trump and warns him to back off or he will retaliate ten fold in Ukraine. Trump agrees because Putin is a “nice, but tough guy” and he likes tough guys. Also, he is already too busy starting conflicts in the Western hemisphere.
Now there is no off ramp and the entire ME region has become an Arab-Iran vs. Israel conflict. Israel eventually faces internal revolt which forces the government leadership to flee the country, resulting in total chain of command collapse which the Palestinian resistance takes full advantage of to liberate the remaining occupied territories.
‘HTC’ do you mean HTS? they’re compradors with Israel and the west, Israel may(and I think already has to some extent) attempt to increase their occupied area of Syria beyond the Golan but HTS wouldn’t oppose it(at least physically)
Yeah it was a spelling mistake, I meant HTS. I’m aware they’re looking the other way when it comes to Israel/ US aggression in the region, but even a comprador has certain limits they are willing to tolerate (see the recent increased hostilities between Saudi Arabia and UAE over Yemen for example). I could see HTS turning against Israel if they were to hit Damascus directly or attack HTS-controlled military outposts to try and sow more chaos in Syria (a weakened Syria benefits Israel regardless of who is in charge) as Israel has avoided HTS targets entirely, so far.
Then again, HTS has said nothing of Israel still occupying the South-West of the country, so that’s why I put a maybe on HTS fighting Israel.
idk about that, these are my subjective opinions but I think that the HTS leadership is smart enough to know if they bite the hand that feeds them(the west and their landlocked aircraft carrier Israel) even in retaliation to deliberate strikes against their positions then they will likely face regime change, with the atrocities they’ve committed against Alawites and other groups that the western states have tacitly ignored untill now used as casus belli
So imo they wouldn’t fight back against strikes against their positions by Israel unless they were an existential threat to their control over the rest of Syria
I would argue Israel already is an existential threat to HTS’ control of Syria because they still occupy the South-West of the country.
The main factor is not the threat of regime change by the West, but how much HTS is willing to tolerate Israeli aggression before they completely lose support of the Syrian people. A comprador may not want to bite the hand that feeds them, but they also cannot ignore the hearts and minds of the masses. And the Syrian masses want peaceful self-governance after 15 years of civil war, NOT Israel invading and occupying their land. Right now, HTS can still ignore the South-West/ Golan Heights because they don’t have any control over that region, but if Israel decides to expand further towards North, or attack the capital directly, they will have a huge problem. If they still choose to not respond and keep focusing on fighting their civil war/ violently purging minorities, the Syrian people will start turning against them.
Of course, I could be getting ahead of myself here and maybe HTS will strike some official non-aggression pact and just let Israel keep the Golan Heights in the near future, but they can’t ignore the main contradictions in their own country forever.
only problem with this scenario is the Arabs actually having a backbone, once their daddy Amerikkka calls, these de generate gulf kingdoms will tow the line.