A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like “in Minecraft”) and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of a Quds Day march in Bandar Abbas, Iran.

It now seems likely that, very soon, the US and the Zionists will attempt to bomb Iran. Compared to the buildup to the Iraq War, the stated goals of such a move are being kept a little more generalized - some say the point is to overthrow the government for “humanitarian” purposes (others are more honest and want to partition Iran into a dozen powerless statelets). Some people instead say the point is to get rid of the ballistic missile program, which is synonymous with outright surrender, as no matter the deal, bombers would be en route within 10 minutes of the last batch being handed over.

Still others say that the goal is to destroy the Iranian nuclear program, which, as the thread title implies, is now in a bizarre propaganda superposition: it is apparently simultaneously true to the Trump administration that the US obliterated the nuclear facilities and set back Iran’s nuclear program years, if not decades, but also that Iran is mere days away from finishing a nuke and a new round of bombing is urgently required. This obviously casts newfound doubts on how effective US weapons even are at penetrating Iran’s underground facilities (though it doesn’t necessarily mean they didn’t breach them, as Iran was almost certainly moving nuclear material out of Fordow and other sites in the days before the Twelve Day War). The sheer quantity of US anti-air defense equipment they’re shifting into position also casts doubts on whether Iran’s air defense was mostly destroyed during that conflict, as those who assert that the Zionists had total air supremacy over Iran seem to be implying.

I’m not a military guy, and so I have no novel insights on how such a war is likely to go, nor do I feel confident predicting either side’s victory. I’m looking at most of the same sources that you’re all looking at. Some confidently boast of the total destruction of Iran’s air defense within hours, allowing US planes to fly directly over Iranian cities and drop bombs en masse; others cast doubts on whether this will ever occur, and say that the US’s limited supply of Tomahawk missiles is the only major firepower they will be able to safely unleash. Some say this war will last mere days before state collapse; others say months, maybe even years. I have no idea.

I do at least feel somewhat bolstered by the fact that Russia and China finally appear to be pouring in meaningful information and matériel to help Iran this time around, though of course, one can still debate whether it’s enough. I feel like we are at the culmination of decades of war planning by both the US and Iran, and the result could have deep ramifications indeed.

Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.

  • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
    22·
    8 hours ago

    https://archive.ph/vDw9l

    Saudi Arabia-Turkey Kaan jet talks irk a Trump administration bent on arms export dominance

    Saudi Arabia is toying with Turkey as it pursues advanced F-35 warplanes and forges new partnerships to check Israel and UAE

    Americans will go on about capitalism, and then as soon as someone goes “well, you can’t meet my demand for goods so I’ll just go look elsewhere” they start screeching like they’ve been shot

    more

    Saudi Arabia’s bid to diversify its weapons partners is rankling the Trump administration, which sees deals with countries like Turkey potentially cutting into the US’s slice of the kingdom’s arms market, current and former US officials have told Middle East Eye. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was feted at the White House in November when US President Donald Trump announced the kingdom would be buying advanced F-35 warplanes and rolled out a major strategic defence agreement. But more recently, US officials operating under Trump’s deal-making diplomacy agenda have sought clarity from Saudi Arabia about its arms deals talks with other regional countries. Following pushback from Washington, Saudi Arabia assured the US that it would not be purchasing Pakistan’s JF-17 fighter jet after reports emerged it could convert billions of dollars in loans to Islamabad for the warplane, the US official told MEE. But US officials have not received similar guarantees from Saudi Arabia about its potential participation in Turkey’s next-generation Kaan fighter programme.

    “I don’t see where the Turkish fighter fits into the Saudis’ repertoire, which is extensive already. They have the best F-15s on the entire planet, better than the Americans. The Euro Typhoon is good, and they are about to get the F-35s,” Bilal Saab, a former senior defence official in the Trump administration, told MEE. A US official familiar with the matter said the Trump administration does not view the potential deal as replacing the F-35, but as Saudi Arabia leaving cash on the table for more purchases from the US. “The message to the Saudis has been, ‘What need do you feel is not being met by the US, that you need to go to Turkey for the Kaan?'” the official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told MEE. “This administration wants to be the sole provider, putting American exports first,” the source added.

    Multipolar Middle East

    Current and former Arab and US officials who spoke with MEE do not predict a major fallout, but the US’s pushback underscores how Trump’s diplomacy, based on zero-sum economics, is rubbing up against a more multipolar Middle East. “Saudi Arabia’s interest in the TAI (Turkish Aerospace Industries) Kaan is about having more choices, not replacing the United States, because this isn’t possible,” Hesham Alghannam, the director general of strategic studies and national security programmes at Naif Arab University in Riyadh, told MEE. “But if the US administration sees arms sales as a competition, it might view this move as a sign that Saudi Arabia is drifting away.” Cinzia Bianco, a Gulf expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told MEE, “There is room for misunderstanding.” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said during a visit to Saudi Arabia in February that a joint investment for Kaan “could be signed at any moment”. A model of the Kaan was displayed at the World Defence Show in Riyadh this month, emblazoned with a Saudi flag. Mehmet Demiroglu, TIA’s general manager, told Breaking Defense last week that a deal with Saudi Arabia could see between 20 and 50 warplanes made for the kingdom.

    Defence experts say that Saudi Arabia could buy both the F-35 and the Kaan. Although the latter is billed as a Turkish warplane, it still requires an F110 engine made by General Electric. The sale has been under discussion for years, but has yet to move through Congress. There are tactical and broader strategic reasons why Saudi Arabia is toying with Turkey’s Kaan as it looks to close a deal with the Americans. Trump publicly promised Saudi Arabia it would be allowed to purchase warplanes as sophisticated as Israel’s F-35s. The F-35 can be ordered from Lockheed Martin like a car: “fully-loaded” or in a less advanced variety. Israel has long maintained an effective veto on the sale of advanced US weapons to Middle Eastern states to preserve its own “Qualitative Military Edge” against its neighbours. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in November that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio promised that Saudi Arabia would receive inferior F-35s to Israel’s. “I don’t think that makes you too happy,” Trump told the Saudi crown prince at the White House, admitting Israel’s lobbying.

    ‘A diplomatic ploy’

    The Trump administration is effectively caught between pro-Israeli lobbying and its desire to boost weapons exports to the Gulf. MEE revealed the Trump administration has been briefing lawmakers and their staff on how the sale of F-35s will impact QME, potentially reassessing the metrics. “I see this as a diplomatic ploy to try to get the right kind of specifications on the F-35,” Saab said. “The Saudis and other Gulf states use arms sales as a foreign policy tool, less so an attempt to build military capabilities.” “The incentive here is not military in nature for a better capability. For the Saudis, this is about ‘How do we get a better deal from the Americans?’” he added. “And quite frankly, it works.” Saudi Arabia has a track record of flirting with the US’s competitors to extract concessions. During the first Trump administration, the kingdom toyed with the Russian S-400 before acquiring the Thaad air defence system, provoking an angry response from the Trump administration at the time, the current and former US officials told MEE. But Turkey is offering the kingdom something of value that the US has yet to: co-production and tech transfers. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 calls for 50 percent of the kingdom’s defence spending to be on locally produced items. “[To] be frank…the pace of US engagement on deep, structured co-production and transfer remains perceived as slower than Saudi aspirations, which will certainly prompt Riyadh to continue exploring partnerships that are often more flexible on local production and knowledge sharing,” Alghannam told MEE. “If Saudi Arabia feels pressured to choose one partner over others…that kind of pressure might push Riyadh to strengthen ties with alternative suppliers instead,” he added.

    ‘A big Israeli fuss’

    Bargaining aside, Saudi Arabia’s talks with Turkey are also taking place amidst a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape, which Washington has at times been slow to notice. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman jolted policy wonks when he lobbied Trump directly against the UAE in November for its role in Sudan’s civil war. MEE was the first to report the kingdom’s plans. Since then, Saudi Arabia has moved to evict the UAE from Yemen. It is backing the Sudanese army, alongside Egypt and Turkey, to defeat the UAE’s allies, the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group. As Saudi Arabia cooperates with Pakistan, Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt, the bonds between the UAE and Israel are becoming starker. Saudi Arabia could be using its wealth to shore up this new bloc through arms purchases. But Bianco, at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told MEE Riyadh is wary that the “promises” Trump made on the F-35 will not materialise, and are susceptible to Israel’s allies in Washington. Trump himself has not waded into the Gulf rift, but US Senator Lindsey Graham, a key ally of the president, lambasted the Saudi crown prince at the Munich Security Conference on Friday. “The Saudi F-35 deal is now divorced from normalisation with Israel. Does it end up like the Emirati F-35’s that never materialised because of other conditions? In the UAE’s case, it was China; in the Saudi case, Israel. What if the Israelis make a really big fuss about this?” Bianco said. “The Saudis will take the F-35 even if they receive a lesser version than Israel. They won’t be happy about it, but they will take it,” she added.

    • aanes_appreciator [he/him, comrade/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
      12·
      6 hours ago

      It’s not like this deal is bound to materialize either. This plane had its first flight in 2024 and there’s only 3 prototypes so far.

      Saudi will put its feelers out the same way I tell the guy on my ISP’s customer hotline that I’m “looking at other options”; we both know it’s a formality to authorise the pre-approved deal that everyone else gets.

      In the end, a (twin-engined NATO-produced stealthy) bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

      • sisatici [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
        0·
        2 hours ago

        The project was disrupted when usa declared they won’t sell engines for it lmao. It would have been more useful if they made the engine without airframe