I think 10% is very achievable within 5 years, driven by a few converging factors:
- Steam Deck effect — it’s normalizing Linux gaming in a way nothing else has. People who game on Deck start wondering “why not on my desktop too?”
- Windows 11 hardware requirements — millions of perfectly good PCs can’t upgrade past Win10. When support ends, Linux is the obvious path for those machines
- Corporate cost pressure — companies paying per-seat Windows licensing are looking at alternatives seriously, especially with web-based workflows
The biggest remaining barrier isn’t technical — it’s the ecosystem lock-in (Adobe, MS Office dependencies). But even that’s eroding with web apps replacing native ones.
Twenty years ago, we were speculating whether open source browsers would survive or catch on.
Now there aren’t any closed source browsers left.
Vendors will find other forms of lock in, anyway, of course.
My bet is that Linux will get 10% Steam market share by the end of this year, at most.
Seeing as its the year of the Linux desktop, yes
Ever is an extremely long time.
Yes, as long as Windows will keep getting worse.
I personally feel pretty confident we’re gonna hit 10% in the coming years. 20% could be doable but i feel like it might take a lot longer to get there. But depending on how badly microslop keeps fucking up, who knows lol.
Microslop is doing everything to promote Linux. So yes, I think 10% is possible.
Probably, but it would be a lot easier if the Linux community coalesces around one main distro. If that happens, they could challenge Microsoft. Otherwise, probably not.
Thats what red hat is supposed to be
It’s hard to see that being a good thing
But then I think that’s the mentality which has led to the failure to capitalise on Microsoft’s unpopularity over many years. To be honest.
I understand where you’re coming from, but of course the Linux I want to use is not a business with a centralized marketing department vying for market share. It’s something that I can customize and make into whatever I want it to be.
I think that’s why many people want to use Linux - they’re not pigeonholed into decisions made to gain market share, they’re free to choose whatever works well for them.
Paradoxically, 20 plus years ago people chose PCs and Microsoft over Apple for much of the same reason. We could select our own hardware from any manufacturer, easily run our own executables and develop code in any direction desired.
I’m not really saying that has to change. I’m certainly not for it becoming a corporate thing. We have to fight against that 100%. But I would say you can have your Arch, Cachy, or whatever. The tinkerers can do their niche thing in the corner. But if you ever want it to be widely used, you have to present Ubuntu, or Fedora, or Mint, as “Linux” as far as the general public are concerned. If that doesn’t happen, then it won’t matter how unpopular Microsoft becomes.
With Windows 12 rumoured to be a subscription model, yes definitely. Enterprise will buy up the subscriptions, home users will look elsewhere. Apple will take its share of course, their products are too pricey for a lot of people though. Linux is the only real option for folks who value owning their data.
Apple’s stuff isn’t really that pricey though. My brother recently bought a base model Mac Mini M4 that I’ve been able to play with. It’s fantastic. The new MacBook Neo looks similarly great for the same price. More than capable of daily use for the vast majority of computer users.
If you look at OS on steam its about 3%, but filtered for English, its 7% in that market.
Its kinda on its way there already in some markets.
It’s currently at 8.27% on the gamingonlinux tracker: https://www.gamingonlinux.com/steam-tracker/
In thw wikimedia stats, linux usage is around 5 to 6% and seems to be growing
Yes I do, it seems to me Linux is beginning to grow a bit faster than it used to.
Desktop use is of course declining, so it will be a larger share of a smaller market.
But enthusiasts have seen Linux as the better options for decades now, and gamers are coming over too, and use cases that require optimal security, and even some workstation tasks are done better on Linux because Linux has a superior kernel for multi threading.But it will take some time, probably at least 10 years.
Yes. Not because Linux PCs become so much more common, but because Windows PCs become much less common.
More and more people (normies) don’t own a desktop and only use tablets or phones. As the percentage of normies who own a desktop decreases, it will become more of just a nerd thing to have an actual desktop PC … and those kinds of people are much more likely to run Linux.
Agreed. PCs will wind up being for power users only, both due to cost and the decline in tech literacy.
But also, Nvidia is already salivating at the idea of people streaming games from what amounts to glorified chromebooks. Whether those are actually running a Google OS or a Microsoft one doesn’t ultimately matter - the point is that they will be locked into a walled garden with minimally-powerful hardware. Can such a device even really be considered a PC anymore?
the point is that they will be locked into a walled garden with minimally-powerful hardware. Can such a device even really be considered a PC anymore?
My main laptop is an ancient chromebook that I jailbroke and put Linux on.
While they’re locked down, I wouldn’t really consider them to be a PC. But if you can unlock them…
If vr and ar are optimized for Linux then definitely. But tech illiteracy will keep windows around
Yes. It’s already grown from ~1% to ~6% within the last couple of years. There are several major external factors at play: Valve helping to push gaming on Linux, the continued and increasingly big enshittification of Windows, and the current deranged US regime (resulting in less trust and less users of US-company-produced proprietary operating systems). Remember that Linux or the open source BSD variants are the only (usable/practical) operating systems you can use if you want to achieve digital sovereignty. Plus, it’s also getting even better over time by itself of course (that’s the internal factor).
it’s already grown from ~1% to ~6% within the last couple of years
Source?
The primary source being cited by most of the articles is U.S. Gov Analytics, (or the less reliable Statcounter, which I wouldn’t rely on.) U.S. Gov Analytics currently places it at around 4.7% over the last 30 days, 4.4% this calendar year, and 5.6% the last calendar year. It was about 6%-ish when most articles were written about the 6% number for the first time.
Steam, so basically just gamers and not regular desktop users, has it more around 2.3%.
That US site’s data includes both mobile and desktop. With a bit of math, you get Linux’s desktop marketshare over 30 days as 7,1%.
Steam’s February data is heavily influenced by Chinese new year. If you only consider Linux Steam users who have set English as their Steam language, Linux’s marketshare is 8,28%.
Literally anywhere on Google. But it also makes sense when you think about ChromeOS & non-us aligned countries - what else are they gonna use?
