I’ve liked this guy’s analysis a lot, seeing him mostly on youtube. An escalation trap is the only framework to understand this which makes sense to me. Israel and Trump’s sycophants convinced him it would be an easy war, kidnapping Maduro made him think that’s how strong the US military is, and US propaganda toward Iran actually worked on him. In order to seize any of its strategic objectives the US has to escalate while Iran only has to survive another day beneath mountains that the US can’t penetrate without physically raiding them. Iran matching any strike tit-for-tat, even launching one successful strike per day, demonstrates that they have the capability to and that contradicts the US goal of removing that capability.
https://escalationtrap.substack.com/
I’ve liked this guy’s analysis a lot, seeing him mostly on youtube. An escalation trap is the only framework to understand this which makes sense to me. Israel and Trump’s sycophants convinced him it would be an easy war, kidnapping Maduro made him think that’s how strong the US military is, and US propaganda toward Iran actually worked on him. In order to seize any of its strategic objectives the US has to escalate while Iran only has to survive another day beneath mountains that the US can’t penetrate without physically raiding them. Iran matching any strike tit-for-tat, even launching one successful strike per day, demonstrates that they have the capability to and that contradicts the US goal of removing that capability.