🚨 KITE Insta Analysis: A 25% US tariff on EU autos would hit Europe’s automotive core hard. In our KITE simulation, 🇩🇪 Germany’s auto-sector output falls by almost €15bn in the short run and about €30bn in the long run. Losses are also sizeable in 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, and 🇸🇪 Sweden.

The broader macro hit is smaller than the sectoral one — but still meaningful. Real value added falls most in 🇸🇰 Slovakia (around -0.85% short run), followed by 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇭🇺 Hungary, and 🇸🇪 Sweden. This is what deeply integrated auto supply chains look like under tariff stress.

For 🇩🇪 Germany, the EU remains by far the biggest destination for automotive exports. But outside Europe, the 🇺🇸 US is the single most important market — ahead of 🇨🇳 China and 🇬🇧 the UK. That helps explain why US auto tariffs would bite German industry so directly.

For the EU as a whole, the biggest extra-EU destinations for automotive exports are the 🇺🇸 US and 🇬🇧 UK, followed by 🇨🇳 China, 🇹🇷 Türkiye, and 🇨🇭 Switzerland. So even a sector-specific US tariff would hit one of the EU’s most important external export markets.

As always, huge CAVEAT: We don’t have any details beyond “25% on EU automotives”. So these simulations give us direction and sense of magnitude, no “exact” forecast

Source: Julian Hinz on X/Twitter.

  • Tudsamfa@lemmy.worldEnglish
    17·
    1 day ago

    I’m begging you: Don’t.

    BMW and VW are both already way too big to be effectively regulated, making any government cave in to their demands. They are the main reason Germany in particular is trying to reverse the ban on new combustion engines. Let us just rip this band aid off or this will fester until there’s no oil left to burn.

    • gian @lemmy.grys.itEnglish
      3·
      17 hours ago

      They are the main reason Germany in particular is trying to reverse the ban on new combustion engines

      No, they are not. Simply all the necessary infrastructures are not ready (by a long shot) to phase out ICE engines.

        • gian @lemmy.grys.itEnglish
          1·
          14 hours ago

          It is something everyone can see:

          • We do not produce enough electricity (tbh, this is going better year over year)
          • The grid is not ready to support that much more electricity by a long shot, especially in all the minor towns/villages/random places outside the bigger cities (which have their fair share of problems anyway)
          • Most of the smaller town has few charging stations (if any) and even if this also is slowly (too slowly) getting better there is simply too much to be done to be in a decent situation by the target date
          • there are still laws that prevent (or make way too easy to stop) the installation personal recharging stations in condos, even if you have your own garage/place.
          • there are many places where you cannot install personal charging station nor public charging station since there is not enough space to do it (no space on the streets, garages too small and so on)
          • you need move also the entire supply chain to EV cars, not only the manufacturers, and this is not happening on the scale it is needed.

          While I agree on the spirit of the law, switching to EV cars are a good idea IF we can solve the problem of recharging them all, but not on the execution.
          Simply setting a date without planning for everything else is plain stupid. Something like Germany did closing the nuclear power plants without any plan about how to replace them if not some vague “renewable energy” charade.

          Not all EU countries are in the same situation, I agree, and manufacturer are only partially responsible for this, most of the responsability is from past governments that did not have the ball, and foresight, to decide for impopular (at the time) solutions that could have made easier today.

          • B0rax@feddit.orgEnglish
            2·
            13 hours ago

            No. It is not something everyone can see.

            • how do you come to the conclusion that we do not have enough electricity in 2030 to charge all new EV cars? We are not talking about replacing ALL existing cars, it is only about newly bought ones.
            • how do you come to the conclusion that the grid will not be able to support that? The problem is that at the moment big investments into the energy grid are being stalled. But this is not a hard „it can not be done“ but more a „we don’t want to do anything because big oil is telling us not to“
            • charging stations in small towns are usually not the point anyway. You want lots of high power charging at the highways (which are currently already a lot of and it will only increase over time, more so if the EV market share is growing more). Charging points in smaller towns are. Matter of political will of local politicians.
            • the myth of „you need a 20kw charging station at home or a EV will be useless!!“ is also not true. You can charge an EV just fine at a normal Schuko outlet. I am, in fact, doing that on my daily driver. You do not need any permissions at all.
            • yes, this is one valid concern. But again, we are not talking about today, but a few years from now.
            • and exactly why is this Not happening? Because there are no clear deadlines or guidances. If there is a law that you can not sell combustion engine vehicles after a certain date, trust me, the supply chains will adapt. But you MUST set a date and STICK TO IT. There is simply no other way to make this industry change course.
            • gian @lemmy.grys.itEnglish
              1·
              12 hours ago

              No. It is not something everyone can see.

              how do you come to the conclusion that we do not have enough electricity in 2030 to charge all new EV cars? We are not talking about replacing ALL existing cars, it is only about newly bought ones.

              Worked in the field.

              how do you come to the conclusion that the grid will not be able to support that? The problem is that at the moment big investments into the energy grid are being stalled. But this is not a hard „it can not be done“ but more a „we don’t want to do anything because big oil is telling us not to“

              As above, worked in the field. The numbers are agnostic to what big oil tells.

              charging stations in small towns are usually not the point anyway. You want lots of high power charging at the highways (which are currently already a lot of and it will only increase over time, more so if the EV market share is growing more).

              Not everyone live near a highway. And charging station in small towns are the point unless you accept that to charge your car you need to drive 50km to the nearest highway, if even present.

              Charging points in smaller towns are. Matter of political will of local politicians.

              True. And national laws supersede local laws, so unless you have not a sufficient number of charging station in small towns EV will not be that usefull. But I am no seeing any laws that force local politicians to solve the problem, it is more the will of the single politician than an organic job.

              the myth of „you need a 20kw charging station at home or a EV will be useless!!“ is also not true. You can charge an EV just fine at a normal Schuko outlet. I am, in fact, doing that on my daily driver. You do not need any permissions at all.

              I am not saying anything about your myth and I know that I can charge with a normal Schuko outlet.
              Problems rises when you live somewhere (condos) where other people do not let install your own outlet in your own garage citing security concern (stupid I agree), or you have just a parking spot in the condos which is not that near to your home. Let’s not start to talk about the cars simply parked on the street…
              What do you suggest ? That people use a 50/100 meters long extension cord ? Or to demolish the apartment building (or entire neighborhoods) and rebuild them so that everyone can charge their car from a home outlet ? These are the problems with the charging stations, not the “20 kw station” myth.

              yes, this is one valid concern. But again, we are not talking about today, but a few years from now.

              To have ready few years from now you need to start today. I never understand the logic of people like you that think that “few years from now” everything will be ready while today we are not doing anything to have it.

              and exactly why is this Not happening?

              Because they impose a date withot any planning. Simply deciding the date without a complete planning is useless.

              Because there are no clear deadlines or guidances. If there is a law that you can not sell combustion engine vehicles after a certain date, trust me, the supply chains will adapt. But you MUST set a date and STICK TO IT. There is simply no other way to make this industry change course.

              It is not because of this. It is because people saw “ok, from 2030 no more ICE cars sold” but do not saw any of the things you have to do to be ready to switch.
              Where are the work on the grid upgrade ? Where are the laws to make it easier to install charging stations (basically removing a lot of NIMBY excuses and nonsense) ? Where are the laws to stop any fucking town’s council or HOA equivalent from exercising veto power over panel and wind turbine installation, both for personal use and big power generation ?
              There are a lot of thing we should do before deciding that after a certain date we should not sell anymore ICE cars.

              I repeat, switching to EV cars is a good idea, I agree on the spirit of the law but I cannot ignore the problems the law has.

            • gian @lemmy.grys.itEnglish
              1·
              12 hours ago

              I know about it.
              But ask yourself: why there is a weak demand if an EV car is so much more convient ?

              Merz probably just aknoledge that there are problems and currently people do not consider EV cars as a valid alternative.
              Or maybe the vast majority of people live in a place/situation where charging an EV car is too of a burden, charging time excluded.