🚨 KITE Insta Analysis: A 25% US tariff on EU autos would hit Europe’s automotive core hard. In our KITE simulation, 🇩🇪 Germany’s auto-sector output falls by almost €15bn in the short run and about €30bn in the long run. Losses are also sizeable in 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇸🇰 Slovakia, and 🇸🇪 Sweden.

The broader macro hit is smaller than the sectoral one — but still meaningful. Real value added falls most in 🇸🇰 Slovakia (around -0.85% short run), followed by 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇭🇺 Hungary, and 🇸🇪 Sweden. This is what deeply integrated auto supply chains look like under tariff stress.

For 🇩🇪 Germany, the EU remains by far the biggest destination for automotive exports. But outside Europe, the 🇺🇸 US is the single most important market — ahead of 🇨🇳 China and 🇬🇧 the UK. That helps explain why US auto tariffs would bite German industry so directly.

For the EU as a whole, the biggest extra-EU destinations for automotive exports are the 🇺🇸 US and 🇬🇧 UK, followed by 🇨🇳 China, 🇹🇷 Türkiye, and 🇨🇭 Switzerland. So even a sector-specific US tariff would hit one of the EU’s most important external export markets.

As always, huge CAVEAT: We don’t have any details beyond “25% on EU automotives”. So these simulations give us direction and sense of magnitude, no “exact” forecast

Source: Julian Hinz on X/Twitter.