I know this is a bold thesis. It is meant to provoke thought and encourage debate. Here are some of the considerations that led me to it:

  • Europe depends on US military protection, and the US uses this “alliance” as leverage -> NATO gives Washington structural influence over European security choices.

  • US tech firms dominate Europe’s cloud and software stack, creating digital dependency. Also, European data often sits under infrastructure exposed to US legal and corporate power.

  • Russian energy dependence was a problem for Europe when the Ukraine war started. The US were quite eager when it came to “help” by replacing the Russian energy dependence with American energy dependence.

  • US sanctions policy often forces Europe to absorb costs for Washington’s geopolitical priorities.

  • American platforms shape European speech, commerce, administration, and most importantly: public debate.

  • “Strategic autonomy” exists as a slogan because dependency is already the default.

  • huppakee@piefed.socialEnglish
    1·
    5 days ago

    Sure, Europe is far from defenseless. But a large-scale two-front conflict, especially if coordinated and sudden, would likely overwhelm Europe’s current military and political capacities. What’s your opinion on that?

    You aren’t asking for my opinion, but my two cents on this: if it’s Europe alone vs Russia alone, Russia can do damage but not really win anything meaningful. But if it is Europe alone vs Russian with China (and NK), Russia could probably do whatever the fuck it wanted because China has the abilities to wipe out all our air defense systems and likely to kill all our communication channels.

    I have the impression that the US and Russia are slowly but steadily moving toward strategic alignment. Perhaps this is because the US increasingly sees Russia as a potential geopolitical partner against the PRC.

    Regarding this, i think they US is moving closer to Russia, but I’m not sure if it’s because of strategy. It might be simply because Trump aspires to reign like Putin. Either way, the US considers China the biggest threat to their hegemony and while Russia and China are aligned they are both much stronger (Russia has the materials, China has the means to do something with that) so splitting them up would be a win, strategically. But it’s unlikely as long as the UN Security Council continues to give 5 countries veto power, i can’t imagine the 3 vs 2 (US, UK & France vs China & Russia) ever becoming 4 vs 1.