Oh just can’t continue down the thread, might have to start a new one. I basically can’t reply below this reply anymore. :)
And yes, it’s not a given that it will happen, but we are very much moving towards that becoming a real possibility. The reality is that Russia needs to restore deterrent, and doing nothing will only mean continued escalation on the part of the west because there are no consequences.
There is of course a second view here which is that European economies are imploding, and it’s possible that regime changes might actually start happening in major European countries. The winter isn’t just going to be bad for Ukraine, it’s going to be very bad for Europe too. European gas storage is already tapped out, and there’s no way to refill thanks to the war on Iran that’s ongoing. https://energynewsbeat.co/international-news/europe-is-at-its-lowest-gas-storage-in-15-years
A political crisis in Germany, France, or UK is extremely likely at this point. So, Russia simply absorbing the current escalations may be a rational strategy. Doing something like strikes in Europe could be counterproductive if Russia expects Europe to collapse politically and economically in the near future.
Meanwhile, the whole Anchorage thing has a second dimension to it which is creating a lot of tension within NATO. The war isn’t really about Ukraine in the end, and if Russia thought they could peel the US off from Europe then it was worth pursuing that. Ukraine is just a proxy here the west is using, but the real problem is with NATO itself.
Oh just can’t continue down the thread, might have to start a new one. I basically can’t reply below this reply anymore. :)
And yes, it’s not a given that it will happen, but we are very much moving towards that becoming a real possibility. The reality is that Russia needs to restore deterrent, and doing nothing will only mean continued escalation on the part of the west because there are no consequences.
There is of course a second view here which is that European economies are imploding, and it’s possible that regime changes might actually start happening in major European countries. The winter isn’t just going to be bad for Ukraine, it’s going to be very bad for Europe too. European gas storage is already tapped out, and there’s no way to refill thanks to the war on Iran that’s ongoing. https://energynewsbeat.co/international-news/europe-is-at-its-lowest-gas-storage-in-15-years
A political crisis in Germany, France, or UK is extremely likely at this point. So, Russia simply absorbing the current escalations may be a rational strategy. Doing something like strikes in Europe could be counterproductive if Russia expects Europe to collapse politically and economically in the near future.
Meanwhile, the whole Anchorage thing has a second dimension to it which is creating a lot of tension within NATO. The war isn’t really about Ukraine in the end, and if Russia thought they could peel the US off from Europe then it was worth pursuing that. Ukraine is just a proxy here the west is using, but the real problem is with NATO itself.