more like thucydideez nuts, gottem

A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like “in Minecraft”) and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of a satellite image from MizarVision, a Chinese firm that has recently shown pride in being sanctioned for showing uncensored images of the Middle East. The West is not allowing up-to-date satellite imagery of the region to hide destruction.

As always, my weekly summary/preamble is in spoilers below.

preamble

Military news remained relatively subdued last week, with the main front continuing to be the Lebanon border. With dozens of vehicles destroyed and many more Zionist casualties, they are now desperately searching for a solution to the FPV drone threat, with certain analysts characterizing the whole situation as the entity stumbling foot-first into a bear trap (hence the megathread title). Unfortunately for them, two better and more resourceful militaries have spent the last year or two also searching for a solution and have generally failed - with anti-drone strategies consisting mainly of 1) build your own cheap drones designed to physically intercept their cheap drones and 2) separate your forces up rather than conducting large frontal assaults WW2-style and accept that you’re gonna have to fight for many months to gain substantial ground. This also explains why they’re so eager to kickstart a civil war in Lebanon, although as I’ve stated before, I don’t personally know whether that would be a silver bullet given how the Lebanese army has been deliberately not allowed to become a threatening force due to Zionist fears, and indeed, I don’t know how many Lebanese citizens and soldiers would fight against the only force in their country fighting against an army trying to annex their territory and which murders hundreds of people at a time in aerial bombings on their cities.

Aside from the ever-worsening global economic catastrophe, the main event has been the US visiting China. Trump clearly intended to time the summit such that it took place after subjugating Iran and perhaps also Cuba. However, with the former goal not even remotely achieved, and the latter goal delayed - hopefully indefinitely, though the US still seems pretty intent on it - it all amounted to a big nothingburger. Marxist economist Michael Roberts has written up a great piece on the current state of the US-China economic conflict, stating among things that, despite the last decade of US sanctions and economic warfare, the Chinese economy has done extremely well, building up their own domestic industries to replace commodities lost from sanctions. China has, up to this point, refused to withdraw its aid from Iran, and seems to be looking to start moving its tankers through the Strait via Iran’s new tolling mechanism.

China obviously continues to maintain its position on Taiwan, and Trump has continued the US tradition of respecting this in words and disrespecting it in actions, but it’s becoming clear to everybody but the most delusional diehards that the US will not be fighting China in and around the Pacific for at least a couple decades, and likely never will. There is little choice. The Ramadan War has definitively proven that the US has been severely militarily and logistically weakened over the decades despite skyrocketing military budgets, and much of their equipment, strategies, and tactics are woefully outdated for the modern battlefield. The prospect of the US fighting a war against China and not immediately losing has gone from “almost implausible” to “hilariously absurd”. Unable to meaningfully impede China, the US will have to content itself to increasingly ineffective sanctions campaigns and bullying/overthrowing nations that do not currently have much of a capacity to resist. In that vein, one hopes that Iran and friends will share their expertise in drone technology and underground fortification around the world. The age of the tunnel is upon us.

Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.

  • Tervell [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
    73·
    16 days ago

    https://archive.ph/2q3Fv

    The U.S. Air Force Has a 1,800-Pilot Deficit — Pilots Leaving for Commercial Airlines That Pay 2x USAF Pay

    The U.S. Air Force has a 1,800-pilot deficit. USAF pilots are leaving for commercial airlines that pay 2x USAF pay. The USAF pilot base pay is capped at approximately $200K (per legal cap). Senior commercial wide-body captains earn $450K-$550K — double the USAF cap. 1/3 of military pilots transition directly into commercial airlines.

    more
    The U.S. Air Force Pilot Problem

    US Air Force pilots are highly trained assets, essentially seven- to eight-figure strategic investments. And by most standards, the compensation pilots enjoy is strong. Yet the Air Force has a retention crisis that persists. Outwardly, this may seem like a paradox: good benefits vs high attrition. But the attrition is explainable; while the Air Force offers stability and prestige, commercial aviation simply offers more money and more control over their lives.

    Breaking Down USAF Compensation

    An Air Force pilot’s base pay is rank-based. An O-1 makes about $50k while an O-4 makes between $75k and $100k. Senior officers can make $150 and beyond. By mid-career, pilots earn between $115k and $155k, while at the senior level, they earn over $200k in base salary. Flight pay bumps total earnings, usually between $150 and $1,000 per month. Retention bonuses sweeten the pot, too, inspiring some pilots to stay in uniform with $50k per year or $600k over the contract length. So compensation is clearly solid—but it’s also capped.

    Tax Advantages and Extras

    In addition to base salary, pilots receive BAH (housing) of $20k to $40k per year and another $3,900 per year for BAS (food). A large portion of this is tax-free. So the take-home pay is higher than just the base salary suggests. Pilots also receive 100% medical coverage through TRICARE. Families are covered, too, with a minimal out-of-pocket expense. This is one of the strongest healthcare packages in the US workforce. And SGLI life insurance offers up to $400k.

    Retirement System

    Once an Air Force pilot hits the 20-year pension mark, an immediate payout of roughly 40 to 50 percent of base pay is triggered. For example, an O-5 pension would be $50k to $80k per year. And critically, pilots do not need to wait until they turn 65 to collect the pension; it begins immediately. So a 42-year-old can hit the 20-year mark, retire from the Air Force, collect $60k per year in passive income, and start a second career making an additional six figures. This pension is extremely valuable—but it requires a 20-year commitment. Additionally, the 401(k) equivalent, the TSP, offers a 5% match.

    Lifestyle Benefits

    Pilots receive 30 days of paid leave per year, double the two weeks many civilian jobs offer. Pilots can also continue their education through tuition assistance and the GI Bill, which can be used for graduate school or transferred to a spouse/child. The Air Force assists with travel, too, allowing pilots and their families to take Space-A flights on military transport, thereby saving on airfare. When a pilot is ready to buy a home, the VA loan allows him or her to do so with zero percent down, saving tens of thousands of dollars up front relative to the twenty percent civilians typically have to put down. So the Air Force offers a strong and comprehensive support structure. So why are so many pilots leaving the Air Force?

    The Lifestyle Reality

    Healthcare and tax-free allowances aside, there are downsides to life as an Air Force pilot. Deployments can last six to 12 months. PCS moves require the pilot and their family to relocate every two to three years. The schedule is never stable; it constantly changes. The operational tempo is high, owing to the 1,800-pilot deficit. As more pilots leave and the shortage deepens, the operational tempo intensifies, further degrading the quality of life. And the unfortunate truth is that as officers advance, they spend most of their time on administrative tasks, with flying accounting for only a minority of their workload. So the lifestyle is demanding, variable, and ironically, often not centered on flying an aircraft.

    Why Pilots Leave

    Pilots are leaving because their pay is capped relative to their talent set. They can stay in for 30 years and never earn base pay above the legal cap, barely above $200k. The airlines, meanwhile, cap pay at around $550k. That’s double the money to fly to Amsterdam and back. And because airlines are organized around a rigid seniority system, leaving the Air Force earlier means higher lifetime earnings at the commercial airlines. Of course, commercial pilots choose where to live, thereby granting their families a degree of stability over military life, within which the military decides where you and your family live, forcing relocation every few years. That gets old. The commercial route also eliminates the administrative burden of being an Air Force officer. Pilots want to fly; they don’t join the Air Force to do desk work. At United, Delta, or American, pilots fly; they don’t do desk work. And in the commercials, pilots sidestep the high operational tempo of Air Force life. In short, commercial aviation gives pilots more money, more control, and that pilot-specific identity that desk work stifles.

    …

    Transition Dynamics

    This is why one-third of military pilots transition directly into the airlines. The advantage is that most military pilots already have the 1,500 flight hours commercial carriers require for hiring, which means immediate employability. Transitioning early-plug pilots into the seniority rankings earlier means millions more are earned over the course of their lifetime. So the commercial system actually incentivizes an early exit from the military.

    Strategic Implications

    The draw of commercial aviation has created a retention crisis that impacts readiness. The training pipeline is being strained; replacement pilots are very expensive. And the departure of senior pilots leaves an experience gap, with roles being filled by more junior pilots. Over the long term, this results in degraded combat capability. So pilot retention is essentially a national security issue.

      • Cunigulus [they/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
        35·
        15 days ago

        The airforce pilot>commercial airline pilot pipeline offered such a great income plus perks and prestige that the airforce has never had a problem finding people who want to fly - until now. Maybe no one has good enough eyesight or - what caught my friend out - a lack of mental illness. They won’t let anyone depressed or suicidal fly for them, and in today’s world of mental health awareness that cuts out a lot of likely pilots.

        • Pentacat [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
          30·
          15 days ago

          Most young people are depressed and anxious. It’s a normal reaction to the world. And, unfortunately, they’re still being taught as if everything is fine, which makes it worse.

        • supafuzz [comrade/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
          13·
          15 days ago

          airforce pilot>commercial airline pilot pipeline offered such a great income plus perks and prestige

          I’m pretty sure airlines have figured out that “pilot” is, like “teacher,” one of those jobs that people will do no matter how badly they’re exploited or abused

          • jack [he/him, comrade/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
            15·
            15 days ago

            Yeah but you can’t just stick anyone in the job. You need thousands of flight hours before becoming a commercial pilot. The military is the only path for the vast majority of people.

        • tocopherol [any]@hexbear.netEnglish
          10·
          15 days ago
          CW DEPRESSING

          The mental health thing could be a factor depending on how stringent they are, like if they were to ask “have you ever had suicidal ideation?” I cannot think of anyone close to me that hasn’t had at least a bit of that at some point.