Hold on to your butts, comrades. We’re about to get a preview of 2050. I just checked the live data, and the area off the coast of South America that is the index water for ENSO is 9° F above average in places. This is going to be a wild year.
Hold on to your butts, comrades. We’re about to get a preview of 2050. I just checked the live data, and the area off the coast of South America that is the index water for ENSO is 9° F above average in places. This is going to be a wild year.
So what can my brother do, who works for a finance firm that invested $9billion into Palantir, who still thinks “High GDP = Human Progress” and capitalism is good, has a maths degree, has multiple kids who’s futures he thinks is totally fine because “money,” who has faith that technology will solve all our climate issues so investing into oil companies ain’t that bad, and even if his firm isn’t doing good for the earth at least he donates 25% of his salary to tax-reclaimable charities? Who believes in “effective altruism”? Who considers himself among “the capitalist class” because he now has enough money to make investments? Who still believes that everyone is responsible for their own circumstance, and if you’re poor it’s because you were financially irresponsible and lazy? Who thinks “material circumstances” are a cop-out? Who thinks Einstein is a brilliant man but can’t take 20 minutes to read his “why socialism” article?
For the millions of people with any spending power who can afford to buy their own home and afford private healthcare, their salaries depend on them to believe in the system, love capitalism, and protect that status quo… Where do they fit in this hypothetical revolution?
That’s really really bad, though I’m sure you’re fully aware.
As for the rest of your comment, the material benefits you describe are ultimately in large part extracted from exploited countries through imperialism; I suspect that’s where you’d see the first modern switches away from our current system (look at Burkina Faso for example), not in the imperial core. How many of these treats are actually manufactured in the west ? what happens when they can’t impose their world order ?
Look also towards countries like China; it’s going to become really obvious really soon they’re able to offer much more material benefits to their citizen than countries like the US, for a fraction of the cost and the environmental impact. It will become hard to explain such a disparity. This has already begun.
And also, and again: we’re entering a really dangerous zone. Most of our climate predictions were based on extremely optimistic scenarios and models not taking into account unquantifiable feedback loops; as well as carbon-removal technology that has never been demonstrated at scale, and that would be all but impossible to implement in a capitalist system even if it was. And we’re still emitting more and more each year. Much of what you describe may come to an end sooner than expected.
I agree with all of this, but it doesn’t answer the question. For many many people, people like my brother, who live a life of benefit from the capitalist system that is cooking our planet - where do they fit into the hypothetical revolution? All those words you’ve typed are things I’ve been trying to talk to him, my family, and everyone about. They just go “yeah it sucks,” and continue spending more time working for capitalists than spending time with their own family. They simply aren’t willing to listen, they don’t care, and why should they? Why would they give up their privileges? And if a massive climate disaster event occurs, do you think that’ll be enough to convince them? Or will their lifetime of invested loyalty have them double down to defend centralized food corporations that decide who does or doesn’t get to eat because “they offered me a competitive salary to work for them”? Because depending on a climate-collapse-induced-revolution I think is extremely pie-eyed, most people will happily side with fascists if they’re the one providing food and “jobs.” To some extent, people like my brother are already doing that. So what of them?
For a lot of people, I do. I think many people like this are ultimately buried in their cultural context, and never had an event breaking them out of that mould / making them question what are for them basic assumptions about reality.
I think the vast majority of people are good and would care; it takes constant reinforcement to make them accept (and for many, barely, despite the image they may project) their constant participation in an absurd, evil system and to make them actively link their self-worth to it.
Also, at the end of the day, there are more and more people barely surviving and there are less and less people like your brother as time goes on; eventually we reach a critical threshold. And at that threshold there are a lot more of the former than the latter willing to fight.
You’re describing the bourgeoisie. they’re invested in the system because the system works for them. They don’t lead the revolution, they’re the counter revolutionaries.
Either (1) the system will break down so much that it’s not worth it for him to support it because it no longer enables his material comfort, then he can join the revolution, or (2) as the system breaks down, he’ll fight for the last remaining scraps divvied out to loyalists and become an enforcer against the changing tides. Realistically, he’ll enjoy luxury and comfort the rest of his days, and his descendents will have to make those decisions.
They have a choice to make, we can’t make it for them. Socialism or barbarism.
If you want a purely material class analysis of people like your brother (where their believes don’t matter): for people in the imperial core, who are not landlords, but get paid high enough wages to invest significant amounts of money, but they still go to work, their class position depends first on their investment. Do they make enough money “passively” from their investment alone, ignoring wages, to live a life of average comfort if they were to quit their job on the spot? Than they are capitalists who labor “on the side”, but are no longer forced to sell their capacity to work. From a revolution, they stand to gain a functioning, crisis free system, the survival of the planet, peace and the end of oppressive hierarchies. But they would lose their class privileges and have a lower living standard.
If the income from their investment is to little to live off, they are still forced to sell their labor and they are still part of the working class, no matter their lack in class consciousness. Even, if they say they are “capitalists”, they are wrong. However, the working class is split and I’d like to point out two ways how: betrayal and class compromise. Examples for jobs, that try to form workers into class traitors are any jobs who discipline workers and enjoy privileges in return: like police, foreman, judges, managers with low/medium income, teachers, social workers etc. But not everyone in such a job necessarily becomes a class traitor. Some work against what’s expected of them to show solidarity. This is almost non existent in cops, but very common in teachers and almost the norm in social workers even though they all have a disciplinary or controlling role, but to different extends, with different levels of political consciousness. Other privileges arise because of racism and patriarchy. Again, allies are possible who actively reject their privilege.
An example for class compromise: in the imperial core, they are likely part of the labor aristocracy and are privileged from unequal exchange, overexploitation and accumulation through dispossession. Another example: the 1968 generation dropped revolution and anti-imperialism in turn for increased personal liberties.
Keep in mind, that borders between class positions are constantly shifting with technological development and class struggle.
Your question cannot be answered in advance, and when it can be properly considered, it’s likely you’ll be the best judge of it.