You don’t know what the day of the year is? The chart shows what the standard deviation from the normal temperature is for each day of the year, so all June 30ths show up in the same column for instance. It’s worth noticing that the baseline that they are comparing to is probably already elevated because it starts well after green house gas emissions started because that is when we had the satellites to gather the data. So the 3+ standard deviations is probably under representing the temperature compared to the pre-hydrocarbon economy.
Just noting that the “baseline”, I believe, is just the average temp for all recorded temps for that date, and the std. dev. Is likewise based on those recorded temps. They didn’t just some nominal values that they’re comparing to. The baseline changes with each new recorded temp. So, yes, they’re definitely higher than pre-hydrocarbon economy.
The baseline stopped in 2020. “Standard deviations from the 1991-2020 mean” The standard deviation is of course dependant upon how many samples (30 per day)are in the data set. The only reason I qualified my statement is we don’t have the actual historic data to say without qualification, and if you went back to the Jurassic or further, who knows with any certainty what to compare with (tectonics at some point mean that the area in question didn’t exist). The data certainly is indicative that the baseline data would be significantly lower, but we cannot say that with the authority that we can for the data collected by satellites which is definitive and pretty much unassailable.
You don’t know what the day of the year is? The chart shows what the standard deviation from the normal temperature is for each day of the year, so all June 30ths show up in the same column for instance. It’s worth noticing that the baseline that they are comparing to is probably already elevated because it starts well after green house gas emissions started because that is when we had the satellites to gather the data. So the 3+ standard deviations is probably under representing the temperature compared to the pre-hydrocarbon economy.
Just noting that the “baseline”, I believe, is just the average temp for all recorded temps for that date, and the std. dev. Is likewise based on those recorded temps. They didn’t just some nominal values that they’re comparing to. The baseline changes with each new recorded temp. So, yes, they’re definitely higher than pre-hydrocarbon economy.
The baseline stopped in 2020. “Standard deviations from the 1991-2020 mean” The standard deviation is of course dependant upon how many samples (30 per day)are in the data set. The only reason I qualified my statement is we don’t have the actual historic data to say without qualification, and if you went back to the Jurassic or further, who knows with any certainty what to compare with (tectonics at some point mean that the area in question didn’t exist). The data certainly is indicative that the baseline data would be significantly lower, but we cannot say that with the authority that we can for the data collected by satellites which is definitive and pretty much unassailable.