My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.
preamble
After an uncertain beginning to this second major period of hostilities, we can now see the overall plan for either side.
For the Americans, their fire has been primarily focussed on southern Iran, where they have been attempting to break Iran’s control of Hormuz by a steady campaign of striking both military and civilian sites. Additionally, it looks like the US is attempting to shape the battlefield around Bandas Abbas and Qeshm Island for some kind of incursion, as we have seen bridges and tunnels in the vicinity struck by missiles. The key word there is “attempting”, because there are several things wrong with this plan both tactically and strategically.
Tactically, Iran has demonstrated the ability to very quickly get their transportation infrastructure repaired, and the US simply isn’t firing volleys in the required amounts - and towards the right targets (they’re using several missiles on purely civilian targets, like fishing boats) - to meaningfully degrade Iranian control of even this sector of the coastline. Additionally, an amphibious assault on Qeshm Island in the style of the WW2 Pacific theater is essentially impossible unless Iran, for whatever reason, allowed it. The gauntlet that any ship holding Marines would have to run to get to the island precludes this, let alone also transporting heavy weaponry and materiel for resupply. Using helicopter-borne troops or paratroopers would be much more feasible, but runs into even greater logistical problems if the US wanted to do anything there other than a brief skirmish before withdrawing. Strategically, even if the US waved a magic wand and took Qeshm Island, it’s unclear what this would do to fulfill war aims. The most obvious intention would be to trade it back to Iran in return for a major Iranian concession, but what if you take the island, you call up Iran saying “Alright, let’s get this deal running! First, I want no Hormuz tolls–” and Iran just… hung up, and kept firing drones and missiles and artillery at your forces on the island until they either all died or were forced to retreat? It’s not a tenable position to hold, and Iran’s capabilities to affect shipping in Hormuz are obviously not all concentrated on one single island.
So, what is Iran’s strategy? It’s what one analyst (Amerikanets) has termed “debasification”. If the first phase of the war from late February to mid-April was focussed primarily on generally destroying and disrupting the US’s military infrastructure in the region, what this second phase has planned is something more like a region-wide missile advance. Starting from the Gulf states and their US bases, the plan is to push back American planes and soldiers to further and further afield bases and thereby make sorties against Iran take much more time, fuel, and use more resupply planes. Iranian strikes are, as of me writing this, concentrated on Jordan, where a recent Iranian strike caused the first admission of soldier deaths in quite some time. The Iranian goal is clearly to push back all US planes to at least the Zionist entity, by which point, unless they are withdrawn further back all the way to Europe, the planes will all be so concentrated on so few bases that it will become a physical impossibility to get them all scrambled before Iranian strikes hit. Compared to the US’s strategy, Iran’s is immediately bearing fruit, with US strikes already very limited in intensity compared to the first phase of the war months ago. The irony of the US breaking off negotiations - again! - to pursue a new strategy that already looks to be profoundly failing is truly some inspired stuff; the genocidal architects of American imperium in the mid-20th century are rolling in their graves.
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
(The Cradle) Two Chinese supertankers carrying Saudi oil exit Red Sea
Two Chinese supertankers carrying a combined 4 million barrels of Saudi Arabian crude were sailing out of the Red Sea through the Bab al-Mandab Strait on Thursday, according to shipping data, despite an attack on a Saudi vessel in the area.
LSEG shipping data showed that the Singapore-flagged very large crude carrier (VLCC) Xin Long Yang, which turned around and paused in the Red Sea on Tuesday, resumed its southbound journey late Wednesday. The vessel was passing along the Yemeni coast and heading toward China’s Qinzhou port.
The Chinese-flagged VLCC Cosnew Lake was following behind and indicated that it would unload its cargo at the port of Huizhou in Guangdong province, according to the data.
Both ships’ automatic identification system signals showed that they had Chinese crews onboard. The vessels were chartered by Unipec, the trading arm of China’s largest refiner, Sinopec, and loaded crude earlier this week from Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port.
(The Cradle) Lockheed Martin raises 2026 forecasts after surge in missile production & ‘defense’ spending
Lockheed Martin raised its 2026 revenue and profit outlook on Thursday as the Pentagon moves to replenish weapons supplies.
Shares of the ‘defense’ contractor climbed 7% in premarket trading following the announcement.
US President Donald Trump has been pressuring ‘defense’ companies to expand production as the US-Israeli war on Iran and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war have depleted US military stockpiles.
Lockheed’s missiles and fire control division saw revenue increase nearly 20% to $4.1 billion, driven by increased production of its PAC-3 and Precision Strike missiles, both of which have been used during the war on Iran in recent months.
The division also benefited from higher output of THAAD missile interceptors after Lockheed secured a $35 billion US government contract in June to quadruple production capacity.
(Tabz) Iran’s IRGC says the U.S. is using calls for renewed negotiations as a deception after suffering battlefield setbacks, claiming Washington seeks ceasefires to replenish its oil and ammunition stocks before resuming attacks.
The group says after exhausting cruise missile stockpiles aboard warships in the Indian Ocean, the U.S. has begun using B-1 bombers operating from RAF Fairford in the UK to conduct strikes.
The IRGC reiterated that any base used to launch attacks against Iranian territory is considered a “legitimate target” and issued a warning to the British monarchy, accusing it of playing a major role in recent U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran.
The statement also accused Britain of a long history of partitioning Islamic countries, carrying out massacres, supporting authoritarian governments, and facilitating the creation of Israel, warning London “not to further worsen its record.”
(The Cradle) Oil builds up in Gulf as Strait of Hormuz traffic declines, Kpler says
Energy analysis firm Kpler said crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have significantly declined following the collapse of the agreement between the US and Iran.
Despite the drop in transit activity, Gulf countries continue loading oil onto tankers for export, resulting in a growing accumulation of crude supplies in the region.
Meanwhile, reports of attacks targeting Saudi-linked vessels have disrupted traffic in the Red Sea, placing additional pressure on another key maritime route for regional energy exports.
Kpler said disruptions in both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea have shifted market concerns away from fears of excess oil supply toward the possibility of a short-term supply shortage.
https://t.me/AMK_Mapping/33919?single
Another Ukrainian drone attack on Engels airbase. Not sure if they’re FPV or long range drones, but there were Tu-22M3 strategic bombers there.
Tesla sold more cars than expected in 2026Q2, but their earnings disappointed, mostly because they are starting to sell most of their cars at a loss. Their best line items in the earnings reports were paper gains on SpaceX stock (that stock is already down like ~25% in July, their report is up to June 30th) and direct subsidies they can book as profits (regulatory credits).
Optimus (their stupid AI autonomous robot) and Cybercab (stupid autonomous minicar) were supposed to begin mass production early this year. After missing the deadline the earnings report now doesn’t say when production is supposed to start. Tesla Semi (EV semi truck) was supposed to go into production this year, shareholder letter now says 2027 or later. The famous 2020 Tesla Roadster 2 was supposed to go into mass production in December 2026 (Elon promised that on the Joe Rogan podcast!!!), then production was moved to May 2027, the new production date is ???.
All is well in the world of Tesla. Stock is somehow down only 6% in premarket and I bet it will make up some of that in daily trading. Because Elon cultists are real piggies.
全国最后一位长征女红军王全英在医院与世长辞，享年105岁，她14岁时加入红军踏上万里长征路，严寒中和战友吃野草充饥，被冻掉脚趾
On 22 July, the last living female member Red Army to make the Long March, Wang Quanying, passed away in hospital. She was 105 years old. She joined the Red Army at the the age of 14 to set off on the Long March, enduring extreme cold and starvation alongside her comrades, even losing toes to frostbite
Excerpt from 潮新闻 Chao News, WeChat, secondary news article below
https://view.inews.qq.com/k/20260723A07N8700?scene=wap&no-redirect=1
God Damn al Jazeera.
Gaza24Live reports
#BREAKING | Al Jazeera terminates the services of its journalist correspondent Muhammad Shaheen, the sole surviving reporter from its team in northern Gaza, after two years of continuous war coverage, during which he accompanied his martyred colleagues Anas al-Sharif, Muhammad Qreiqea, Ismail al-Ghoul, and Hussam Shabat.
Yahya Basheer in Gaza writes
To clarify the picture even more for followers around the world regarding the situation in Gaza and Palestine…
Al Jazeera, the channel that “rode the trend” and gained the “exclusive footage.”
For months now, it has been terminating employment contracts with journalists and media activists who worked under bombardment in Gaza for two and a half years!
Today, Al Jazeera is turning its attention to other, more important issues, as we follow and see!
In their view, Gaza is no longer a trend, and there’s no point in caring about the shelling here and the assassinations and massacres there…
If you are a tanker waiting in line to be hit by a drone or a mine, stay in line.
Three oil tankers, encouraged and enticed by the child-killing U.S. military, attempted to pass through the mined route south of the Strait of Hormuz. After an explosion and a severe fire broke out on one of them, the other two quickly turned around and retreated.
More money for war and genocide
🇺🇸 The House has passed the $1.1 trillion National Defense Authorization Act 216–212, with six Democrats voting yes and seven Republicans voting no. It incudes section 219 which integrates U.S. military intelligence and the defense industrial base with Israel.
The bill makes US military support for Israel easier and more institutionalized. It creates a Pentagon official tasked with accelerating U.S.-Israel military technology cooperation, including joint R&D, testing, co-production, data sharing, and moving jointly developed technology into procurement.
Separately, it extends through 2029 an existing authority allowing the U.S. to transfer weapons already stored in its War Reserve Stockpile in Israel. That authority can permit transfers without Congress voting on each shipment, with Congress only receiving notification under the underlying law.
Tasnim: A Saudi oil tanker was struck by a missile approximately 70 kilometers north of the Yemeni border and is currently on fire. The tanker’s capacity was approximately 500,000 barrels, and it originated from Yanbu.
https://x.com/bonzerbarry/status/2080038246302576862
[edit] I apologize for the fake news, it looks like two Saudi oil tankers were hit!
This is footage purported to be from Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan during an Iranian attack; filmed by a US soldier.
Assuming this is genuine, just look at that bomb shelter. I don’t think this would even stop shrapnel.
https://xcancel.com/clashreport/status/2079875374704378085
A fresh CENTCOM video appears to show a U.S. strike hitting what looks like empty aerial-bomb casings or similar scrap. Analysts geolocated the impact site to the military section of Bushehr airport in Iran. Satellite imagery shows the empty casings have been sitting in that exact spot for about 15 years. Source: @zarGEOINT
best most sophisticated military in the world at work folks! a gajilion dollars into planes and missiles and satellites and drones, a few peanuts to the intel guys supposed to find actual targets to throw those gajilion dollars worth of military equipment at
