My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.
preamble
After an uncertain beginning to this second major period of hostilities, we can now see the overall plan for either side.
For the Americans, their fire has been primarily focussed on southern Iran, where they have been attempting to break Iran’s control of Hormuz by a steady campaign of striking both military and civilian sites. Additionally, it looks like the US is attempting to shape the battlefield around Bandas Abbas and Qeshm Island for some kind of incursion, as we have seen bridges and tunnels in the vicinity struck by missiles. The key word there is “attempting”, because there are several things wrong with this plan both tactically and strategically.
Tactically, Iran has demonstrated the ability to very quickly get their transportation infrastructure repaired, and the US simply isn’t firing volleys in the required amounts - and towards the right targets (they’re using several missiles on purely civilian targets, like fishing boats) - to meaningfully degrade Iranian control of even this sector of the coastline. Additionally, an amphibious assault on Qeshm Island in the style of the WW2 Pacific theater is essentially impossible unless Iran, for whatever reason, allowed it. The gauntlet that any ship holding Marines would have to run to get to the island precludes this, let alone also transporting heavy weaponry and materiel for resupply. Using helicopter-borne troops or paratroopers would be much more feasible, but runs into even greater logistical problems if the US wanted to do anything there other than a brief skirmish before withdrawing. Strategically, even if the US waved a magic wand and took Qeshm Island, it’s unclear what this would do to fulfill war aims. The most obvious intention would be to trade it back to Iran in return for a major Iranian concession, but what if you take the island, you call up Iran saying “Alright, let’s get this deal running! First, I want no Hormuz tolls–” and Iran just… hung up, and kept firing drones and missiles and artillery at your forces on the island until they either all died or were forced to retreat? It’s not a tenable position to hold, and Iran’s capabilities to affect shipping in Hormuz are obviously not all concentrated on one single island.
So, what is Iran’s strategy? It’s what one analyst (Amerikanets) has termed “debasification”. If the first phase of the war from late February to mid-April was focussed primarily on generally destroying and disrupting the US’s military infrastructure in the region, what this second phase has planned is something more like a region-wide missile advance. Starting from the Gulf states and their US bases, the plan is to push back American planes and soldiers to further and further afield bases and thereby make sorties against Iran take much more time, fuel, and use more resupply planes. Iranian strikes are, as of me writing this, concentrated on Jordan, where a recent Iranian strike caused the first admission of soldier deaths in quite some time. The Iranian goal is clearly to push back all US planes to at least the Zionist entity, by which point, unless they are withdrawn further back all the way to Europe, the planes will all be so concentrated on so few bases that it will become a physical impossibility to get them all scrambled before Iranian strikes hit. Compared to the US’s strategy, Iran’s is immediately bearing fruit, with US strikes already very limited in intensity compared to the first phase of the war months ago. The irony of the US breaking off negotiations - again! - to pursue a new strategy that already looks to be profoundly failing is truly some inspired stuff; the genocidal architects of American imperium in the mid-20th century are rolling in their graves.
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
If you are a tanker waiting in line to be hit by a drone or a mine, stay in line.
Three oil tankers, encouraged and enticed by the child-killing U.S. military, attempted to pass through the mined route south of the Strait of Hormuz. After an explosion and a severe fire broke out on one of them, the other two quickly turned around and retreated.
More money for war and genocide
🇺🇸 The House has passed the $1.1 trillion National Defense Authorization Act 216–212, with six Democrats voting yes and seven Republicans voting no. It incudes section 219 which integrates U.S. military intelligence and the defense industrial base with Israel.
The bill makes US military support for Israel easier and more institutionalized. It creates a Pentagon official tasked with accelerating U.S.-Israel military technology cooperation, including joint R&D, testing, co-production, data sharing, and moving jointly developed technology into procurement.
Separately, it extends through 2029 an existing authority allowing the U.S. to transfer weapons already stored in its War Reserve Stockpile in Israel. That authority can permit transfers without Congress voting on each shipment, with Congress only receiving notification under the underlying law.
Tasnim: A Saudi oil tanker was struck by a missile approximately 70 kilometers north of the Yemeni border and is currently on fire. The tanker’s capacity was approximately 500,000 barrels, and it originated from Yanbu.
https://x.com/bonzerbarry/status/2080038246302576862
[edit] I apologize for the fake news, it looks like two Saudi oil tankers were hit!
This is footage purported to be from Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan during an Iranian attack; filmed by a US soldier.
Assuming this is genuine, just look at that bomb shelter. I don’t think this would even stop shrapnel.
https://xcancel.com/clashreport/status/2079875374704378085
A fresh CENTCOM video appears to show a U.S. strike hitting what looks like empty aerial-bomb casings or similar scrap. Analysts geolocated the impact site to the military section of Bushehr airport in Iran. Satellite imagery shows the empty casings have been sitting in that exact spot for about 15 years. Source: @zarGEOINT
best most sophisticated military in the world at work folks! a gajilion dollars into planes and missiles and satellites and drones, a few peanuts to the intel guys supposed to find actual targets to throw those gajilion dollars worth of military equipment at
Havana Ray? Vaxxed?
Reuters: At least two CIA sites were struck in March, the CIA station in Riyadh and a separate site in Eastern Iraq. Some of the sources said additional CIA sites have been hit, but they declined to disclose the exact number of locations hit by Iranian drones. One source put the number at “more than one and fewer than a dozen.” A second source said several facilities were hit.
34 mothers lay their children’s remains to rest again—140 days after the Minab school massacre Tehran Times
On February 28, a US missile strike on Shajareh Tayyebeh Elementary School killed 168—most of them children. This week, 68 body fragments from 34 students were identified through DNA testing and buried with dignity in Minab.
Seven-year-old Makan Nasiri remains the only unrecovered victim. An empty grave awaits him; his bloodstained sweater and sneaker are preserved at a nearby mosque.
FT Exclusive: The Trump administration has collected more than $13bn in revenues from Venezuelan oil sales this year, according to FT calculations, but has said almost nothing about what has happened to the money. ft.trib.al/1K9B0QT
:fell-for-50-million-dollar award:
It looks to me like this round of the war is going in Iran’s favor more than any of the prior rounds. They’re blasting US targets all over the region and forcing all kinds of strategic retreats while massively depleting US stocks of munitions and straining every single capacity of the imperialist demons. We love it!
I’d like to see what people think looking ahead. Let’s operate from a single assumption: no lasting peace is possible without a dramatic change in the shape of West Asia. I know some people think Iran might capitulate and allow a status quo not terribly different from before, but let’s set that aside for the purposes of my discussion question:
What will be the first state to collapse and be overthrown in the region?
Let’s take a look at the contenders.
Iran: This seems out of the question, but an extremely dramatic military reversal that would certainly require unity of action between Israel, the Arab compradors, Europe, and the US could conceivably, with great luck and big fuck ups by Iran, bring the Republic down. Seems incredibly unlikely to the point of practical impossibility.
Lebanon: The Lebanese state of 2026 exists solely to facilitate the destruction of its own people and territory by the Zionist Entity. Hezbollah and allied factions are powerful semi-state entities who clearly have the capacity to step in should the opportunity arise. Can they do so under aggressive Israeli fire? I think it’s plausible. A second run at a multinational republic constructed by the Lebanese people rather than the French could make for a powerful and implacable foe to Zionism. Is the Lebanese state fragile, or is external support too strong for it to buckle in the near term?
Syria: The Al-Qaeda government is caught between a rock and a hard place, needing to consolidate its power, assert its violent dominance over the many ethnic and religious minorities, stabilize a shattered society, and placate imperialist masters enough to not roll in in force. Iran’s missile campaign opens up opportunities for the head choppers to operate with a bit more leeway, so they might pull it off, but the most fragile states are always the newest.
Bahrain: A totally artificial colonial imposition (oops that’s everyone but Iran), this has one of the most lopsided demographic imbalances between the population and the ruling class. The Bahraini people are courageous and have a demonstrated recent history of mass uprisings. Could the war give them the opportunity they need, or will the Demonic House of Saud intervene even more fiercely given the stakes?
Jordan: What if your country were faker than Bahrain? Then you’d be Jordan, which is actually just Palestine ruled by the pathetic and detestable Hashemite dictatorship. I have very little insight into the state of mass organization in Jordan, but the country is mostly ethnic Palestinians. If the US is forced to withdraw from Jordan by debasification, what does King Dipshit Loser Who I Hate do to stay in power? Would the people be able and willing to rise up and dismantle the single use plastic equivalent of a nation?
Iraq: To me, Iraq actually reads as pretty stable and flexible. I think the Iraqi state has never been truly subdued by the US, even with the continuous theft of oil revenue, and the PMFs are powerful paramilitaries who can redirect the state in an anti-imperialist direction as needed. I think Iraq lasts.
Kuwait: This is gonna come as a big surprise, but Kuwait is fake. If the war accelerates to a ground campaign, this opens up the opportunity for some Iran-Iraq collaboration to roll in and tear this colonial construct apart. This is the state most likely to be dismantled from the outside, imo.
UAE: Kill the Dubai in your heart.
Yemen (good): Ansarallah’s Yemen appears to be on the rise militarily and economically, decisively benefiting from the war and deeper connections with Iran. Infinite support to the endlessly brave and heroic Yemeni people in their decades-long crusade against genocidal imperialism. They will never fall.
Yemen (bad): This shit probably has less than 12 months left before Good Yemen wipes it out, right?
Saudi Arabia: Unfortunately, I think the Demonic House of Saud is the most stable of all the gulf compradors and will probably be the last domino to fall in an optimistic scenario. The Demonic House of Saud is adaptable and would be willing to give all kinds of concessions to maintain a diminished hold on power rather than fall outright, and the sheer scale of the state makes bringing it down difficult.
Egypt: One of an extremely small number of Real Countries on this list, Egypt’s Zionist-serving leadership has physically relocated themself to an isolated military base masquerading as a capital city precisely because they know everyone wants to overthrow them so bad. I wonder if this strategy can work. What would keep a revolutionary movement from re-declaring Cairo the capital and establishing a new revolutionary state there? Still, I think Egypt is insulated enough from the war that they’re probably not on the brink.
Oman: no idea
Qatar: no idea
Israel: This is the big prize, the keystone piece that holds together the entire imperialist apparatus through a regime of unimaginably horrific violence. No greater could be achieved for the world than the collapse of Israel short of a communist revolution in the United States itself. Unfortunately, the Palestinian resistance appears to be weak and disorganized after almost three years of genocide. The noble people of Palestine have suffered for the whole world to see, and they do not appear to be more capable of bringing down Israel than they were before October 7th. What would change that? Two primary factors: Iranian escalation against the Zionist Entity and US abandonment of its colonial outpost. The first seems plausible as the campaign continues to play out, and a sufficiently battered Israel may be ready to fracture were a Third Intifada launched. The second is also not out of the question. The US does not need Israel. Yes, it needs Israel for a set of important strategic objectives, but the war with Iran is demonstrating that the evil empire is losing its grip on the region anyways, so what good does Israel serve if Iran is running the region? It’s becoming politically untenable to support Israel in the US, and while this country is not in any way a democracy, it does not mean mass rage is unable to shake the ruling class into submission. It has happened many times before on many other issues. The Zionist Tumor understands this threat, which is exactly they want to permanently take the question out of the realm of politics and financially merge with the US military. That may work out, but doing so could easily produce exactly the backlash (in concert with all the other horrors of this wretched nation) to force the ruling class into retreat or
oust them from power entirely in a world-historic revolution.What do y’all think?
The weapons were confiscated by the National Guard, State and the Mexican Army in different operations, documents reviewed by this newspaper indicate, containing the following information: number of investigation folder for each weapon, date of assurance, town or city where the weapon was found, what authority assured it and what is the result of the tracking.
Four of the weapons have belonged to U.S. State Department personnel, according to the search carried out by the Tamaulipas Prosecutor’s Office, which still continues with the investigations, so it was not allowed to cite the number of the investigation folder or publish the photographs that are part of the evidence.
another day another oopsie (the number is minimal, but funny how seppos don’t give a fuck)
IRGC says a recent strike on a US base in Jordan destroyed 8 MQ-9 Reaper drones on the ground and struck a barracks, killing and injuring US soldiers. The drones were destroyed while still in the containers used to deliver them. Other drones, helicopters, and a hanger were also damaged.
UK hosts secret Sudan conference with RSF leader, UAE officials
London licensed hundreds of millions in arms sales to the UAE over three years, which repeatedly ended up in RSF hands
JSOC & the UK are directly participating in the genocide in Sudan
Reports of at least partial US evacuations from The King Faisal military base in Jordan.
Meanwhile, The Al-Udeid Airbase in Qatar is completely empty, as seen on Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, 22/07/2026.
