A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like “in Minecraft”) and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of the Jazan refinery complex in southwestern Saudi Arabia, near the Yemeni border. The big squares depict large thermal signatures - i.e. giant fires caused by missile strikes.


My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.

preamble

As many predicted quite early on in this conflict, the US simply does not have the stockpiles nor production lines to maintain the firing rates we saw in March and April. There’s at least five strictly military problems:

  1. Not enough interceptors to shoot down Iranian missiles, and many missiles get through regardless. This includes a dearth of interceptors in the Zionist entity proper.

  2. Not enough stand-off munitions to cause a real breakdown of Iran’s military and society. There’s enough left in the submarines and in whatever stockpiles they have mustered to give one last very serious barrage before they’re just completely out (unless they start taking all their missiles out of the Pacific and Europe), but even if this is done, this shock and awe failed the first time around, and the missile cities have proven impregnable to Western military technology.

  3. Not enough penetration of Iranian airspace to allow a transition from stand-off bombs to their near-endless supply of glide/gravity bombs. On the edges of Iranian territory it can be possible, but doing so any further inside causes exponential risk to the bombers. Notably, Reaper drones can carry JDAMs, hence why they continue to be used so much despite how often they’re getting shot down.

  4. Not enough naval power to reopen Hormuz. Otherwise, the US could hypothetically wait out Iran and exert economic and covert pressure to encourage political collapse; with Hormuz in Iran’s hands, the US’s delaying tactics favor Iran instead.

  5. Not enough functioning and safe bases from which to launch counterattacks. Due to debasification (a word that has now spread far and wide after Amerikanet’s coining, lol), the US has been pushed back away from the Gulf. This dangerously overpopulates rear bases with planes and makes it so sortie rates are reduced due to how much distance you have to travel and how many refuelers you need per bomber.

No angry proclamations, media offensives, or tacky AI image posts can change this reality, and boy is Trump putting out a lot of that last one. This is why, after the two weeks of attacks we just saw, we see the US very reticent to try and escalate further, and Trump’s threat over last weekend to really start bombing Iran did not occur. This is being reflected in the US media, with several worried articles talking about how there just aren’t enough missiles to keep the conflict going much longer. One of the only options left is to use ground/special forces to do… something, though pretty much no matter what target he selects, it’s hard to imagine it breaking Iran, or doing much to end the conflict, or even being a successful operation past the point where you’ve landed troops somewhere. We saw the “pilot rescue” (uranium heist) operation fail and aborted before the forces could even step foot off the runway they landed on.

It is into this environment that Ansarallah has suddenly declared a blockade of Saudi Arabia - an architect of the blockade of Yemen and one of the major causes of the country’s internal divisions between Ansarallah and comprador groups - and is turning their ships around at the entrance to the Red Sea, thereby cutting off a good chunk of the Saudi’s remaining oil exports. Ansarallah has proven they were not interested in some cautious, gradual climb up the escalation ladder; when the Saudis hit a couple Yemeni port facilities, they went ahead and hit Jazan and Yanbu so hard that the fires were still raging a day or two after the initial strikes. The US is apparently asking for the MoU back, and this time with Ansarallah also placated, but it appears Iran is much less interested in the MoU now after it was thoroughly violated by the US the first time - and if it does return to it, it might have much more hardline demands.


Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
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    22 hours ago

    At convention, Lula da Silva praises Getúlio Vargas and cites focus on defense to prevent an American invasion - CNN

    Article

    In his speech , the president repeatedly mentioned former president Getúlio Vargas, comparing his policies to those aimed at workers and social inclusion, and praised the former politician’s conduct. According to him, labor achievements require a “strong union,” referring to measures taken in recent years, such as the end of mandatory union dues.

    “You’ll realize there are two important moments of social inclusion in this country: the first, with Dr. Getúlio Vargas, who wasn’t a factory worker, he was a farmer. With the creation of the minimum wage in 1936, he lifted people out of the backwoods and into a salary. Then, in 1943, with the creation of the CLT (Consolidation of Labor Laws), which freed people from semi-slavery, gave them rights, regulated working hours, gave them vacations, gave them a lot of things that many people today find bad: ‘ah, the CLT is bad, it’s all old stuff’. Look for something newer. Go ahead ,” he declared.

    Also in his speech, Lula reiterated the importance of investments in Brazil’s defense industry. According to him, the sector must be highlighted so that “no one invades the country to take the president.”

    “We need to invest in defense. I want to be prepared so that no one invades the country to take the president ,” said the Workers’ Party member.

    In January, the United States government conducted an operation in Venezuela that culminated in the extradition of then-President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores.

    He stated that there are “madmen around the world wanting to wage war” and said that investments in defense cannot be something “secondary”.

    “I want them [the Armed Forces] well prepared from the point of view of power, weaponry, scientific and technological knowledge so that we can walk with our heads held high, without any arrogance, speaking of peace, but prepared to not let anyone interfere in our country,”

    Subsequently, Lula rejected support from those who beat an assault women, stating that he saw no problem in losing some votes from that group. Lula declared: “The guy will have to choose: either he votes for me or he beats his wife.”

    “The Workers’ Party (PT) needs to have courage, my government needs to have the courage to say it loud and clear. It’s okay if I lose some votes, but it’s not necessary and it’s not possible. The guy will have to choose: either he votes for me or he beats his wife. If he beats his wife, he doesn’t need to vote for me. Take your hand and vote for someone else,” he concluded.

    • edge [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      20 hours ago

      Nós precisamos investir na defesa. Quero estar preparado para que ninguém invada o país para levar o presidente

      By invasion he means to kidnap him like they did Maduro. There’s no current threat of an actual ground invasion, right?

      • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netM
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        20 hours ago

        By invasion he means to kidnap him like they did Maduro.

        Yes.

        There’s no current threat of an actual ground invasion, right?

        It’s not possible to invade Brazil it’s larger than continetal USA and it’s Capital City it’s in the middle of the country instead of the beach, the city was projected thinking about defending it from an invasion. Carlos Bolsonaro (one of the sons of Bolsonaro) kept asking Rubio to drone strike certain parts of Brasilia and even to use nuclear weapons but no one in the US or Brazil took him seriously