Labor Day is now over and we move into the full political calendar.

I’ve put together a listing of the Republican Primary calendar, with dates, delegates and current polling so you can see everything in one place.

As we move out of the Primaries and into the General, I’ll set up similar charts for the Presidential race and the Senate races. I’m not sure I personally have the juice to track 435 House races. :)

I’m seeing competing results on the number of delegates, so some states are more accurate than others. As I learn more, I will update the post.

There are a total of 2,467 Republican Delegates up for grabs, 2363 Pledged and 104 Unpledged. Unpledged delegates are bolded below.

1234 delegates (easy to remember!) are needed to win the nomination. Pledged delegates are obligated to support the candidate nominated by their Primary or Caucus. Unpledged delegates can support whoever they would like.

2 states (Wyoming and Pennsylvania) have both Pledged and Unpledged delegates, they are divided with a / mark.

Poll Data comes from fivethirtyeight.com, I’ve selected the poll that is both the most recent AND has the most complete slate of candidates. It didn’t seem fair to compare polls that only had Trump / Desantis vs. a poll with 9 or 10 candidates.

Some of these polls are SUPER old though, from before when Desantis announced, take them with a pound of salt. Will update regularly.

One interesting takeaway - Beyond Trump and Desantis, Mike Pence is the most popular 3rd choice, being listed 11 times and Niki Haley is just behind at 8 times.

If you are familiar with my You Are Here posts for Trump trial dates, those are NOT included here for the simple reasons that a) I didn’t want the added clutter, and b) with the exception of the E. Jean Carrol damages ruling on 1/15, there’s no way the trials will be over in a day. They will roll on for months.

Updated 9/11/2023

Date State Type Delegates Poll Date Trump Desantis Other
January 15th Iowa Caucus 40 9/2/2023 51 14 Haley - 10
(January) New Hampshire Primary 22 8/26/2023 47 10 Haley - 10
February 8th Nevada Caucus 26 6/26/2023 52 22 Christie - 3
February 24th South Carolina Primary 50 17-Aug 48 14 Scott - 14
February 27th Michigan Primary 55 1-Aug 61 13 Pence - 7
(February or March) Virgin Islands Caucus 3 (No Polling)
March 2nd Idaho Caucus 32 (No Polling)
March 3rd D.C. Primary 19 (No Polling)
March 4th North Dakota Caucus 29 (No Polling)
March 5th Alabama Primary 49 14-Jan 35 53
March 5th Alaska Primary 28 (No Polling)
March 5th Arkansas Primary 40 31-Aug 58 29
March 5th California Primary 169 24-Aug 55 16 Haley - 7
March 5th Colorado Primary 37 16-Aug 86 14
March 5th Maine Primary 20 22-Mar 45 19 Cheney - 7
March 5th Massachussetts Primary 40 28-Mar 59 18 Pence - 10
March 5th Minnesota Primary 39 (No Polling)
March 5th North Carolina Primary 75 5-Jun 44 22 Haley - 7
March 5th Oklahoma Primary 43 27-Mar 38 29 Haley - 6
March 5th Tennessee Primary 58 14-Jun 61 12 Pence - 8
March 5th Texas Primary 162 30-Jul 48 13 Scott - 5
March 5th Utah Caucus 40 7-Aug 27 19 Pence - 9
March 5th Vermont Primary 17 4-Feb 85 - Weld - 6, De La Fuente - 1
March 5th Virginia Primary 48 6-Aug 47 13 Youngkin - 9
March 9th Guam Caucus 9 (No Polling)
March 12th Georgia Primary 59 16-Aug 57 15 Pence - 4
March 12th Hawaii Caucus 19 (No Polling)
March 12th Mississippi Primary 39 20-Aug 61 22 Christie - 6
March 12th Missouri Primary 54 8-Feb 38 35 Haley - 8
March 12th Washington Primary 43 (No Polling)
March 19th Arizona Primary 43 2-Aug 58 11 Christie - 6
March 19th Florida Primary 125 21-Aug 58 23 Christie - 4
March 19th Illinois Primary 64 24-Aug 53 10 Haley - 6
March 19th Kansas Primary 39 15-Feb 30 17 Pence - 9
March 19th Ohio Primary 78 17-Jul 64 9 Ramaswamy - 12
March 23rd Louisiana Primary 46 13-Aug 75 10 Pence - 2
April 2nd Delaware Primary 16 (No Polling)
April 2nd New York Primary 91 20-Jun 61 31 Haley - 9
April 2nd Rhode Island Primary 19 31-Aug 54 38
April 2nd Wisconsin Primary 41 8-Jun 31 30 Pence - 6
April 18th - 20th Wyoming Primary 26/3 10/7/2022 91 - Walsh, Weld - 0
April 23rd Pennsylvania Primary 16/51 2/11/2022 87 - Walsh, Weld - 2
April 30th Connecticut Primary 28 (No Polling)
May 7th Indiana Primary 58 12/11/2022 39 28 Pence - 13
May 14th Maryland Primary 37 19-Feb 33 27 Hogan - 18
May 14th Nebraska Primary 36 (No Polling)
May 14th West Virginia Primary 31 22-May 54 9 Pence - 5
May 21st Kentucky Primary 46 10-May 70 14 Pence - 4
May 21st Oregon Primary 31 (No Polling)
June 4th Montana Primary 31 12-Aug 52 15 Ramaswamy - 6
June 4th New Jersey Primary 49 16-Jan 93 - Weld, Walsh - 4
June 4th New Mexico Primary 22 3-Jan 87 - Walsh - 8, Weld - 5
June 4th South Dakota Primary 29 (No Polling)
July 15th to 18th Republican National Convention 7/18/2024
  • Jordan LundOPEnglish
    8•10 months ago

    I wanted to put this together because I see far, far, too many headlines that start with “In a national poll…”

    We don’t have national elections. Everything is determined state by state. Anytime you see something lead with “In a national poll…” you can likely safely disregard it.

    • @neptune@dmv.socialEnglish
      4•10 months ago

      A couple states De Santis is ahead or competitive, a couple not so much right now. Doesn’t look like anyone is really a consistent third place.

      Nate Silver always said the same about national polls: although the trending can show changes in temperature that will affect competitive states.

      • Jordan LundOPEnglish
        2•10 months ago

        Ahead in Alabama, but that poll is from January so I wouldn’t count on it, and there’s another recent poll which has Ramaswany in 2nd and Desantis in 3rd.

        3 others he’s behind just a couple of points.