A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like “in Minecraft”) and comments containing it will be removed.

Image shows a display of Changjian-1000 missiles, which are hypersonic cruise missiles with high manuverability and quick launch times. The linked archived article has several more images and descriptions of Chinese missile technology.


My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.

preamble

Aside from the virtually daily Iranian strikes on the Oman route, the main threat that the US is facing in this newest phase of the war is logistics. With Bahrain and the UAE unsafe, the closest safest port in the theater is Diego Garcia, which is over 2000 miles away. Either the aircraft carriers would have to go to Diego Garcia to restock, which would be even less planes and missiles available should hostilities restart suddenly, or goods have to be shuttled to the aircraft carriers from Diego Garcia. This latter option appears to be too much for the US to handle, with widespread reports of dwindling supplies and morale on the USS Abraham Lincoln (and, to a lesser extent, the USS George HW Bush). These reports have culminated in the USS George Washington being sent from the Pacific to replace the Lincoln, which was the sole aircraft carrier in that whole theater. There are six more carriers in maintenance, leaving two carriers left that could even hypothetically be called upon should the USS George HW Bush need replacement; both are currently undergoing training, and of these two, the USS Theodore Roosevelt might be available soon; perhaps even as soon as September. I’m unsure whether the Roosevelt will be sent to the Pacific to replace the Washington, or if it’ll be sent to the Middle East to replace the Bush. Nonetheless, that the situation has deteriorated to the point where we can speculate on how very limited naval vessels are going to be distributed is yet one more indication among many of the decline of US naval power. The symbolism was too much for me to ignore, hence the title: the last aircraft carrier in the Pacific being forced to leave, and not under military pressure in some hypothetical war against China, but to try and relieve logistical burdens elsewhere in a war of the US’s own making.

This joins Trump’s statements that the US will only be taking a very limited part in the South Korean military exercises. This is nominally because of the “great ties” the US shares with the DPRK, but this is an embarrassingly transparent face-saving statement. The DPRK is an increasingly major potential threat to South Korea, a major regional power and economy, but are also helping Russia with both manpower and materiel and getting military experience and data on their missiles’ effectiveness in return.

The US’s Under Secretary of War, Elbridge Colby, recently visited the Philippines. There, he gave a speech that promised to continue the construction of a defensive network that would deny China the possibility of militarily advancing through the Pacific by stationing US forces inside friendly countries. This is the NATO approach: our mere presence will deter the enemy because they would not want to start a direct war with us, and in exchange, you have to hand over billions upon billions of dollars. Colby gave the Philippines that most backhanded of compliments, the “model ally”, and stated that the US was “definitely not disengaging from Asia”. My “We aren’t pivoting away from Asia” shirt has people asking a lot of questions that are already answered by my shirt.

If you’re a US-friendly country in the Pacific and possess even the slightest sense of self-preservation, you are surely feeling nervous. The US is moving its aircraft carrier out of the theater. Overseas, you’ve seen how Iran - a very strong regional country, to be sure, but not as powerful as the industrial juggernaut and nuclear superpower that is China - has nonetheless crippled several undefendable US bases, has exhausted a very large amount of American air defense missiles, is holding the global economy hostage, and the US can seemingly do nothing to stop them. You have to be looking at your own US bases, likely expensive and unpopular, and all the money you’re handing over to the US, and glancing at how the Gulf states are bickering of being betrayed by their ally who promised them protection and immediately retreated. You have to be looking at your economy and its dependence on China. You have to be looking at Ukraine, and the unenviable state of destruction it has been driven to as a puppet of the US. You have to be looking at China itself, and how its military is rapidly developing in all fields, and how it’s even catching up on microchip development. In all, you have to be really hoping that China is serious that they only plan a peaceful reunification with Taiwan, and that the US will not do something incredibly, stupidly reckless in their decline.


Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • Wakmrow [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    1 day ago

    https://youtu.be/uE_HodPjuug

    Electronic intifada report dropped 20 hours ago or so.

    The analysis on oil flow contradicts some of the doom posted this week from cnn reporting.

    Obviously what can I really know from the heart of empire but I would probably trust this YouTube channel over any msm.

    • Infamousblt [any]@hexbear.netM
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      I’ll believe that a substantial amount of oil is leaving through the strait when oil reserves start trending up instead of down. To my peanut brain that seems like the most obviously measurable material thing

      • darkcalling [comrade/them, she/her]@hexbear.net
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        22 hours ago

        The problem is that’s not how oil works. The US is both an importer and exporter of oil. Oil is a global commodity. So there could be enough oil getting through to stabilize demand and prices somewhat but the US could continue releasing reserves to meet domestic supply and keep prices down and to allow it to divert tankers to allies instead (maybe after pocketing an arbitrage profit) who may not have reserves as big as the US one and whose people might grow restless and angry with prolonged very high oil prices which might lead to pressure against the US, the zionist entity, etc.

        Let’s say (optimistically for the US) half the pre-war amount is leaving the strait successfully or 10 million barrels a day if I recall correctly from the pre-war height of 20 million/day. That still leaves somewhat of a gap but it could slow the rate of draining US reserves or if US reserves are relied on more heavily and the oil is sent elsewhere on earth to other NATO and partner states then it could be enough to help allay some of the worst price shocks and/or shortages.

        At present it’s logical to conclude the Trump admin is hoping for a breakthrough of some sort to destroy Iran for him but in the meantime he’s buying time and trying to ensure the midterms don’t go south because gas prices and consumer goods prices explode through the roof heading into the holiday season. So his admin is releasing oil and will continue to do so in order to keep those prices low until supply or prices return to near the pre-war levels or until the midterms or Christmas or until the reserves reach a critically low level depending on his feelings on that and how close he may feel he is to winning. Trump has already hit consumers with tariff price increases, there’s been problems from inflation and his admin is happy to scream about “short term pain, long term gain” in response to this so I have to feel the issue is likely retaining control of congress through the midterms at this point. Indeed it is a US imperialist imperative to do something about Iran eventually so it’s not like the long-term policy blob wouldn’t support using the reserves in a fight against Iran to persevere.

        We simply don’t know but I find a disturbing amount of people here fill the hole of our ignorance with what they want to be true rather than what may be probable. People did this with Ukraine with years of proclamations of Russian victory and Ukrainian army front collapse being inevitable within months, with how NATO stocks would run totally dry over it (they didn’t), and so on. The best lies are seeded with some truth. The US has reasons both to overstate and understate the oil getting through as on the one hand you want to make your enemy think you’re stronger than you are and keep the markets calm, on the other hand never let them see the cards in your hand and maybe lull them into a false sense they’re winning then hit them with the fact you were just drawing them out to the point of their own exhaustion thinking they could out-wait you. Also if you let them know for sure a lot is slipping through their net they may try harder to tighten that net whereas if you play cagey about it maybe they don’t notice those holes and that only benefits you. So I think it’s not all rosy for the US and they have reasons to be mum on it to not scare anyone into raising prices or turning on support of the war but that it isn’t all a disaster either.

        There’s no question the Iran war is going to hurt your average worker eventually in financial terms. It’s just a dispute with those who insist a catastrophe is right around the corner for the US and the reserves won’t last through the midterms a good few more months.

        • Doubledee [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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          If you were releasing reserves to keep prices low you would presumably do it enough that prices were low, not more expensive than when you started the war. If you’re unable to do that without tapping the reserves too much… I mean doesn’t that mean there’s just not much getting out? Gas prices are still up, at least where I am. Obviously it could be more complicated but it doesn’t feel like the situation is such that Donald could be suppressing all the effects and artificially keeping prices low or he would be doing that, it looks like he can’t keep prices down despite trying to.

      • very_poggers_gay [they/them]@hexbear.net
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        I remember reading/hearing that it takes 2 months or longer for oil tankers to travel from West Asia to North America, so I think there’s gotta be a substantial lag between the oil passing through the Strait and reaching American/European reserves.

        If I remember that right, it would mean that reserves trending up or down say more about conditions in the Strait weeks/months ago, rather than right now.

        Like, the Strait being wide open today wouldn’t mean we have more oil today - not even more oil for a few weeks or months as I understand it - but it would relieve some of the pressure/panic of knowing that our source of oil is off limits

        • WalrusDragonOnABike [they/them]@reddthat.com
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          Depends where the exports in the US are going. Two months to get to the US doesn’t matter if it takes 3 weeks to get oil from the strait to Australia from the strait and 1.5 months to get it from the US to Australia. If the US stopped exporting, reserves would instantly start increasing. So if oil had been going through for weeks, then US shipments to a good chunk of the world should have stopped by now. The only exception probably being the Americas.

      • WalrusDragonOnABike [they/them]@reddthat.com
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        Given consumption in many places is down, even a short-term increase in reserves could just be primarily controlled by consumption drops. Likewise, if a bunch of oil made it through this week, it could still make sense to drain the reserves on the expectation of the replacements arriving soonish.

      • Wakmrow [he/him]@hexbear.net
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        The truth is we can’t really know but yeah analyzing the material reality is all we can really go on. To be honest, can we really trust the draw down numbers?