No, your math is wrong. The chance you’re on the main track is actually twice as high. Imagine it like this: When all numbers 1-6 would come up once, there have been 10 people overall on the main track and only 5 people on the side track
But 9 of those people can’t affect the outcome either way. So the chance that you’re on the main track and can affect the outcome in a positive way by flipping the switch is only 1/15.
No, your math is wrong. The chance you’re on the main track is actually twice as high. Imagine it like this: When all numbers 1-6 would come up once, there have been 10 people overall on the main track and only 5 people on the side track
But 9 of those people can’t affect the outcome either way. So the chance that you’re on the main track and can affect the outcome in a positive way by flipping the switch is only 1/15.