Asked whether they believed Trump has or has not “committed serious federal crimes,” 54 percent of poll respondents replied that he had. But 19 percent of them confirmed they’d still vote for this criminal ex-president in 2024. Along the same vein, 13 percent of those who believe Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election results “threatened American democracy” still plan to vote for him next year.
It’s about 30% guaranteed support from Republicans. That’s the number of True Believers he commands. Trump and the rest are vying for the remaining 70%, but he’ll always have that base 30% lead.