The last time this happened, voters didn’t credit Bill Clinton. That may be a bad omen, or a good one.

The last time this happened, voters didn’t credit Bill Clinton. That may be a bad omen, or a good one.

If the stock market chose presidents, Joe Biden would be a shoo-in for reelection in 2024. The market rallied this month amid growing optimism about the economy, with the S&P 500 zooming 1.9 percent Tuesday on news that the consumer price index rose only 3.2 percent in October (compared to 3.7 percent in September). Stocks rallied again Wednesday on news that the producer price index fell 0.5 percent. Commentators are no longer debating whether the economy will experience a “soft landing” (i.e., a reduction in inflation without recession). The only question now is when it will arrive. The S&P 500 seems to have decided it’s already here.

But the stock market doesn’t choose presidents. Voters do, and polls continue to show they think the economy is in terrible shape. A Financial Times–Michigan Ross Nationwide Survey conducted November 2–7 is absolutely brutal on this point.

  • ArugulaZ@kbin.social
    3·
    1 year ago

    And Trump, the self-professed billionaire who cut the taxes of other billionaires, is going to be SO much more beneficial for the middle and lower class.

    • TheBananaKing@lemmy.world
      11·
      1 year ago

      Or you know maybe we could raise the bar just a teeny little bit above ‘at least he isn’t as bad as trump’.

      Yeah, neither is a shit sandwich and a rubdown with a cheese grater, but that doesn’t mean you have to want it.

    • conditional_soup@lemm.ee
      6·
      1 year ago

      I’m really sick of this line of reasoning that functionally goes:

      1. Look, you don’t know what you’re talking about, it’s fine, everything’s fine, and despite what your lived experience is telling you, you’re doing great because just look at the charts and the stonks. Yes, okay, you had to cut back on groceries, but did you see the charts? The economy is doing great.

      And when somebody says “hey, this doesn’t align with my experience, can we just acknowledge that things aren’t actually that great and work towards fixing them?” The response is

      1. Ugh, why would you want to vote for Trump?!

      MF, I don’t, but if the people don’t feel seen by Biden, they might not vote for him specifically because of all the tone-deaf paternalistic “stop whining about my economy, you’re fine actually” messaging. It’s kind of a similar vibe to answering “can we not support genocide in Gaza, please?” With “why do you hate Jews?!”. It’s just an attempt to avoid dealing with legitimate criticism while deflecting it back onto the asker. The clinton campaign already tested this strategy in 16, and we all saw how that turned out.

      • SCB@lemmy.world
        2·
        1 year ago

        Look, you don’t know what you’re talking about, it’s fine, everything’s fine

        This is, generally, true on all counts.

        Anyone who doesn’t think avoiding a recession is better than the alternative is not a serious person worth listening to, and there is probably a link between their understanding of economics and their poverty.

        • conditional_soup@lemm.ee
          2·
          1 year ago

          I kinda get the vibe you’re trying to be smarmy. Look, saying “you should be happy you’re not in a recession, stupid” is not effective messaging. If it’s going to take losing this election for you and the DNC to learn that, I’m going to be awfully fucking cross.

          • SCB@lemmy.world
            2·
            1 year ago

            Democrats literally just had a massive series of electoral victories, this month.

            • conditional_soup@lemm.ee
              2·
              1 year ago

              I mean, it’s not like Democrats have never managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory before. I’m just saying, this is shit tier messaging, and when the whole ass republic is at stake, it sure would be nice to see them actually trying instead of phoning it in with shitty messaging because “the other guy is basically Hitler and we’ve been doing pretty well”.

              • SCB@lemmy.world
                2·
                1 year ago

                Dude the other side couldnt get it’s shit together enough to keep a speakership in place. What do you expect the Democrats to be doing? It’s a miracle the government is funded at all.

                This is a result of them trying. Biden’s “contribution” here was primarily from democrat-pushed legislation.

                • conditional_soup@lemm.ee
                  3·
                  1 year ago

                  Look, if your point is that “they deserve to use shitty messaging if they want, don’t worry about it, bro”, well, okay. That’s your opinion, and that’s fine. I don’t think it’s a smart choice, politically speaking, and that’s where I’m coming from. People are feeling the hurt right now, and I think you’re going to find that correcting their complaints with “we should be thanking Biden, actually” is bitter medicine. Maybe they know what they’re doing, but somehow this feels familiar from the '16 Clinton Campaign; like they’ve got permission to fucking phone it in because the other guy is unelectable. I hope you’re right and they really do know what they’re doing.

                  • SCB@lemmy.world
                    2·
                    1 year ago

                    My point is a rebuttal to your insinuation that Democrats are not trying to fix anything or do anything. That’s false.

                    I agree Dems aren’t as good at messaging as Republicans.