I honestly don’t think he’ll be able to run. Two or three major things are counting against him.
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His health. He’s 77, unhealthy, and he may not make it to 78. Both his parents died very old, mother - 88, father - 93. They also had far fewer health concerns though. Plus he caught COVID-19 with most 70-year-olds getting some sort of form of long covid.
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He might be federally barred from office. On March 4, 2024, his insurrection trial will start and if he is found guilty it would be very difficult for any legal system to state he can still hold federal office.
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He might not even win the primary much less the federal election. There are a lot stronger republican candidates out there and the GOP is starting to see that Trump is a dividing force. If they don’t go with him, they might split the vote between him and a GOP, if they do go with them, they might split the vote to Democrats.
Lastly and this is like 3.5, Napovointerco might be enacted. If that ever happens the GOP might not win another election. It’s essentially a state pact that these states will honor voting with the national popular vote regardless of what the people in the states vote for. It’s almost at 270 electoral votes. At that point, it will be enacted and the national popular vote will be the deciding factor going forward. The Electoral College will be dead. This also has an interesting side effect that it might cause a civil war.
Napovointerco might be enacted.
I don’t see how. According to Wikipedia, states with 203 electoral votes have passed legislation - but states with pending legislation only bring in another 65 votes, which is still short of the 270 votes needed - and that’s only if all the states with pending legislation pass it instead of sending it back to committee, deferring it, or outright defeating it.
It may pass eventually, but I certainly don’t see it happening before next year’s elections.
The 2024 legislation might put them over but it’s a long shot.
He might be federally barred from office. On March 4, 2024, his insurrection trial will start and if he is found guilty it would be very difficult for any legal system to state he can still hold federal office.
Federal courts might call this a non-justiciable political question. Individual states might bar him from the ballot, but good luck getting a lot of red states to do that.
They might but we’ll see. Also it’s not the red states that matter. It’s the purple ones.
I think the electoral college itself could also cause a civil war given time and larger differences between the popular vote and who is declared winner.
Yeah, potentially.
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I doubt it. Polls conducted this early aren’t worth much. People who tend to vote for Democrats may wish for a younger candidate than Biden, but when confronted in the voting booth with a choice of fascism or Biden, most will choose Biden.
That same line of thinking got him in the first time.
To be fair nobody thought he would have fascist policies in 2016. Just that he was dumb and incompetent.
A lot of folks thought he would push fascist policies, though? He was notable for his nativist and protectionist rhetoric on the campaign trail. The audacity of it all is what got him all that free print and airtime.
This is blatantly not true. It’s what won him the election.
People were calling them Nazi though. Far before he was even elected. Pride saw the writing in the walls. Now though, now it’s undeniable. He’s a Nazi pushing fascism and authoritarianism.
I’m not suggesting people get complacent. We gotta vote like our democracy depends on preventing another Trump term, because it does.
And gloom & doom about how Trump is polling or Biden is polling, a year in advance of the election, can make people give up and not vote.
Just pointing out that polls aren’t very reliable. “Red Wave 2022” back in 2021, remember?
Yeah but then people thought they were punishing the DNC then by not voting or going third-party. Those people either learned the DNC is pos but better than trump or still vote third-party.
Conservates: He already won in 2020 just you wait until he rides back in on a bald eagle and jails all the pedophile aliens from Georgia who stole the election. Hunter Biden!
Liberals: I learned my lesson making predictions in November 2020.
Liberals: I learned my lesson making predictions in November 2020.
You mean 2016.
Ha! Yes, I do.
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Probably. I don’t follow US politics closely, but it does feel like we’re in the darkest timeline.
Besides, he kind of goatse-d the overton window. Nothing would surprise me now that it’s already happened once.
Besides, he kind of goatse-d the overton window.
There’s an image I’ll have trouble getting out if my head.
He doesn’t have a chance in the popular vote. He already lost it once (twice, technically). And with how polarizing he’s become, only the more extreme fringe actors are outright supporting him, and those with real money want a “safe” candidate that allows them to keep grifting behind the scenes without causing such a big ruckus. He’ll lose a lot of big donor support, and people are growing tired of the constant outrage news that he generates.
We’ve seen how he performs a symphony of a clusterfuck in a 4 year term, and not even the GOP itself is jumping right at the idea of embracing another 4 years of that struggle- they’re waffling at the idea, and a lot of the extremist upstarts that got a foothold under Trump now want to knock him out of it so they can have their own moment of glory. But Trump was a one-time shot. He was THE face of “The Big Businessman, doing a Business” that appealed to the older, more bootstrapy kind of crowd that still unfortunately dominates the actively voting public. All the younger extremists are trying to parrot him and can’t quite get away with the same level of “crazy” energy without looking actually crazy, since they don’t have the gold-plated toilet of “American Success” to back them up.But regardless of that, will every hard-right extremist fight tooth and nail to ensure he still wins, including but not limited to high treason, rushed gerrrymandering, voter intimidation (or outright slaughter) and the active dismantling of every aspect of democracy down to the local voter box level? You bet your ass they’re gonna try here.
I’d bet money on it. Joe Biden’s failure to do anything material for the public, the crushed railroad strike followed by what happened in East Palestine months later, his unquestioned backing of Israel, failure to materialize any meaningful student loan debt relief. He’s running the Obama playbook without any of the charisma.
My 100% honest, best guess is that Joe wins the popular vote and loses the EC, just like how Trump won last time
Joe Biden’s failure to do anything material for the public
Yeah…he literally put $1400 in your pocket, assuming you’re American, at the beginning of his administration in response to the covid-19 virus.
American politics is basically one big ol’ recency bias. The most recent events weigh more heavily than a holistic view of the candidate. That’s why George W. Bush can paint fucking puppies and the media that used to disparage him now fawns. It’s also why the 24 hr news cycle is so effective: Americans think being informed means being up-to-date.
Yeah…he literally put $1400 in your pocket, assuming you’re American, at the beginning of his administration in response to the covid-19 virus.
Trump did it twice, plus Biden promised $2000 and walked that back when he was in office.
Ignoring everything else, Trump pushed for the checks and called on congress to make increases to what was given out. Biden sent out a lower amount than what he promised and then presided over the clusterfuck that was the end of the pandemic.
Yeah…he literally put $1400 in your pocket, assuming you’re American, at the beginning of his administration in response to the covid-19 virus.
I am American. He literally didn’t do that. I’m not going to dox myself any further than I already have on 3 years of hexbear but I was disqualifies from claiming any money out of a thin pretext. I absolutely could have used that money and frankly I deserved it as much as any other American did. $1400 was already a point negotiated down from $2000, and this was in direct response to a century defining global catastrophe
Americans will not line up out the door out of the polling stations to vote for a guy who, in time of great crisis, did the absolute bare minimum
Americans will not line up out the door out of the polling stations to vote for a guy who, in time of great crisis, did the absolute bare minimum
Oh, so they won’t vote for neither Biden nor Trump!? Great time to push a third party into office!
But they’ll absolutely line up for a guy that did the most to exacerbate the time of great crisis.
Americans…gotta love 'em.
Lol as opposed to the guy who said to ignore the crisis and the party that said let your grandparents die for the economy. And thought it would hurt blue cities more so he actively made it worse. How does someone even type that out without being a troll and be like “yeah, that’s right!”?
Edit: oh hexbear, that makes sense hahahaha
None of what you have listed would be better under Tramp.
Probably. It’s america after all
Yes.
Biden has been a damp squib of a President, so even if people dislike Trump they’re not going to come out in force to vote for Biden again, whereas Trump supporters certainly will.
Joe biden is senile, brain dead, and rambles on about the old days like grandpa simpson.
He’s exactly what represents America.
If you’re looking for a representation of America, it’s basically violence and apathy.
And a health dose of “I got mine so fuck you”
Your moist sadness is palatable.
You seem to think I support either of them.
I’m going to say no. The loudest people don’t always seem to make it to the polls. Here in Illinois, we heard lots of hate for Pritzker. Anti JB signs everywhere. Only 58% turned out to vote and Pritzker was declared the winner within hours of the polls opening
Yeah. I do think he will. Most people I know are pro Trump and have been consistently and vocally since last election.
You need to meet new people.
Pro Christians think Jesus is coming back tomorrow. Find a different bar to set.
You’re not wrong, but that doesn’t even address the original comment.
If you want to address thngs, go to a post office.
Yes, until proven otherwise… call it a coping mechanism.
In 2020, Trump was blamed for exacerbating the pandemic, the economy was struggling, the Black Lives Matter movement was at its peak, etc. the stage was set for an easy win, but democrats barely won control of the senate and Biden’s victory was close enough to let Trumps election nonsense get traction.
Now going into 2024, Biden is taking the blame for everything, is in a no win situation on Israel, and is doing poorly in polls (especially concerning since lately polls have under represented trump voters.) then there are all the protest voters who imply they will vote for trump out of spite or just cause they hate Biden and the DNC…
My two big questions right now are 1) will trump be in jail (seems unlikely considering how nothing ever sticks to the man and he has a stacked court in his favor) and 2) what effect will the actual campaign season and especially political ads have on voters (a brilliant campaign could do wonders for Biden).
There is also the chance that the average American’s experiences with the economy improve next year. Inflation is down, wages are growing, unions are seeing success, the Israel situation will hopefully be done well before the election, etc.
No Biden is set to carry it all, despite what the media wants you to think (so they can get outrage clicks on their websites-looking at you CNN)
Stock market is at record heights, unemployment is way down since the cheese turd was in office. The Drumpfers are definitely loud but their prison bait leader is going to lead them all to another Jonestown disaster. Believe it or not, I think the Supreme Court will be the ones that end the Era of MAGAts.
The stock market is a mood ring for rich people, not anything to do with everyday Americans and everyday Americans are struggling more with food and rent, even car prices have skyrocketed. The Saudis and a bunch of other oil producing countries would really like to have their good buddy back in office and they’ve already said they plan to hike gas prices next summer to try to influence people away from Biden; his support for Israel is only going to exacerbate the situation. And Russia will spend lots of money to get their Russian puppet back in office, and to get more Russian puppets into Congress - not just for the chance to break the US, but also to break NATO, damage the UN and the EU, and finalize their Ukrainian land grab.
Not really accurate. When the stock market tanked during the pandemic, everyone with a 401k panicked about it. It’s not just the rich caring about the stock market.
Kind of hoping Russia gets what they want and the US Balkanizes. It wouldn’t make the world a safer place but it would make me feel a little better temporarily. Then we can all finally stop talking about it and move on to the next topic.
I think it’s a coin flip. You could point to ten reasons it’s “obvious” Trump will win and I could give you ten reasons it’s “obvious” he won’t.
I’m hesitant to laugh it off and say “there’s no way”.
Yeah, that was me in 2016. Colour me surprised
There is a strong movement to hold a constitutional convention before the next election. It is backed by a right wing group called ALEC. They think they have a loophole to make it happen and the new speaker of the house backs the idea. I think if they had a wider majority it would already be happening. They will rewrite the rules to ensure a hard right anti-civil rights candidate wins.
